Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2015, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (1): 69-84.doi: 10.1007/s11442-015-1154-2

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Assessment of meteorological disasters based on information diffusion theory in Xinjiang, Northwest China

Meihua WU1(), Yaning CHEN2,*(), Changchun XU1   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
    2. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China
  • Received:2014-01-07 Accepted:2014-05-05 Online:2015-01-15 Published:2015-01-15
  • Contact: Yaning CHEN;;
  • About author:

    Author: Wu Meihua, PhD, specialized in risk assessment of natural disasters.;

  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41305125;No.U1203281;National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program), No.2010CB951003


Data of flood, drought, hailstorms, and low temperature events in Xinjiang from 1949 to 2012 were analyzed with the diffusion method to assess the risk of the most common types of disasters in Xinjiang. It was proved that the frequency and intensity of meteorological disasters of the study area showed an increasing trend associated with global warming. Among the four types of disasters, surpass probability of drought was the largest, followed by hailstorm, low temperature and flood in turn. Moreover, the wavelet method analysis revealed that greater oscillations had occurred since 2000, which may be associated with the occurrence of extreme climatic changes. The spatial distribution of frequencies reveals that the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains is a multiple disaster area, the southern slope of Tianshan is the area where more floods and hailstorms occur, and the west of Turpan-Hami Basin is the area wind is prevalent. The relationships between disaster-affected areas and corresponding meteorological and socio-economic indexes were also analyzed. It indicated that there were significant positive correlations between the areas affected and the most meteorological and socio-economic indicators except the grain acreage.

Key words: risk assessment, meteorological disaster, information diffusion, Xinjiang