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Journal of Geographical Sciences    2015, Vol. 25 Issue (1) : 69-84     DOI: 10.1007/s11442-015-1154-2
Orginal Article |
Assessment of meteorological disasters based on information diffusion theory in Xinjiang, Northwest China
Meihua WU1(),Yaning CHEN2,*(),Changchun XU1
1. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, School of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS, Urumqi 830011, China
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Abstract  

Data of flood, drought, hailstorms, and low temperature events in Xinjiang from 1949 to 2012 were analyzed with the diffusion method to assess the risk of the most common types of disasters in Xinjiang. It was proved that the frequency and intensity of meteorological disasters of the study area showed an increasing trend associated with global warming. Among the four types of disasters, surpass probability of drought was the largest, followed by hailstorm, low temperature and flood in turn. Moreover, the wavelet method analysis revealed that greater oscillations had occurred since 2000, which may be associated with the occurrence of extreme climatic changes. The spatial distribution of frequencies reveals that the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains is a multiple disaster area, the southern slope of Tianshan is the area where more floods and hailstorms occur, and the west of Turpan-Hami Basin is the area wind is prevalent. The relationships between disaster-affected areas and corresponding meteorological and socio-economic indexes were also analyzed. It indicated that there were significant positive correlations between the areas affected and the most meteorological and socio-economic indicators except the grain acreage.
Keywords risk assessment      meteorological disaster      information diffusion      Xinjiang     
Fund:National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41305125;No.U1203281;National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program), No.2010CB951003
Corresponding Authors: Yaning CHEN     E-mail: wumeihua1026@163.com; xcc0110@163.com;chenyn@ms.xjb.ac.cn
About author: Wu Meihua, PhD, specialized in risk assessment of natural disasters. E-mail: wumeihua1026@163.com|xcc0110@ 163.com
Issue Date: 18 June 2015
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Meihua WU
Yaning CHEN
Changchun XU
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Meihua WU,Yaning CHEN,Changchun XU. Assessment of meteorological disasters based on information diffusion theory in Xinjiang, Northwest China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(1): 69-84.
URL:  
http://www.geogsci.com/EN/10.1007/s11442-015-1154-2     OR     http://www.geogsci.com/EN/Y2015/V25/I1/69
Figure 1  Map of the study area
Age M. A.
A1 A2 B1 B2 C1 C2 D1 D2
1950s 12.3 5.22 70.47 33.21 6.89
1960s 13.99 4.83 205.41 143.95 25.07 12.27
1970s 11.65 4.28 200.41 118.52 55.64 45.33 57.44 56.83
1980s 95.02 28.45 243.73 166.03 74 36.67 36.87 17.33
1990s 80.02 47.91 332.82 139.26 132.4 74.67 113.57 54.8
2000s 73.8 39.57 455.79 312.78 228.05 121.33 176.89 102.91
Table 1  Affected area and covered area by decadal meteorological disasters
Figure 2  Affected and covered area by disasters in Xinjiang (a. Flood; b. Drought; c. Hailstorms; d. Low temperature)
Figure 3  The spatial distribution of frequencies of disasters in Xinjiang from 1949 to 2000

(a. Drought; b. Flood; c.Wind; d. Hailstorms)

Ratio affected 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13
1 S.P. 0.75 0.52 0.37 0.24 0.16 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.01
R.I. 1.34 1.93 2.70 4.14 6.12 7.09 8.84 13.30 19.5 26.80 28.10 32.60 86.80
2 S.P. 1 0.98 0.96 0.93 0.89 0.83 0.76 0.70 0.63 0.54 0.44 0.33 0.25
R.I. 1 1.02 1.04 1.08 1.13 1.21 1.31 1.43 1.60 1.85 2.28 3.01 4.00
3 S.P. 0.97 0.85 0.69 0.55 0.40 0.28 0.22 0.18 0.12 0.09 0.07 0.05 0.03
R.I. 1.03 1.18 1.45 1.81 2.49 3.60 4.53 5.71 8.23 10.6 13.70 19.20 38.20
4 S.P. 0.8 0.58 0.39 0.26 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06
R.I. 1.25 1.72 2.55 3.78 4.99 5.67 6.2 6.97 8.25 10.6 13.00 14.80 17.90
Ratio affected 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.2 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25
2 S.P. 0.2 0.16 0.13 0.11 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.02
R.I. 5.09 6.31 7.83 9.51 11.30 12.9 13.80 14.1 14.60 16.80 23.70 45.30
4 S.P. 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01
R.I. 23.3 27.3 28.2 28.4 30.2 40.20 89.30
Table 2  Surpass probability of ratio affected by all kinds of disasters
Ratio covered 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07
Flood S.P. 0.5 0.19 0.11 0.06 0.003
R.I. 1.99 5.4 9.48 15.4 292
Drought S.P. 0.98 0.94 0.9 0.8 0.61 0.47 0.35
R.I. 1.02 1.07 1.11 1.25 1.64 2.14 2.82
Hailstorms S.P. 0.77 0.58 0.39 0.21 0.12 0.04 0.03
R.I. 1.29 1.73 2.55 4.76 8.5 23.4 28.7
Low
temperature		 S.P. 0.56 0.29 0.16 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06
R.I. 1.79 3.47 6.28 8.68 9.87 12.3 16.7
Ratio covered 0.08 0.09 0.1 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14
Drought S.P. 0.23 0.16 0.1 0.05 0.03 0.004
R.I. 4.33 6.26 9.71 20.2 34.2 249
Wind
hailstorms		 S.P. 0.01
R.I. 93.3
Low
temperature		 S.P. 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.01
R.I. 24.4 27.8 28 28 28.6 38.1 135
Table 3  Surpass probability of ratio covered by all kinds of disasters
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
A.I. S.P. 0.99 0.62 0.09 0.04 0.01
R.I. 1.01 1.61 11.5 28 164
C.I. S.P. 0.63 0.04 0.01
R.I. 1.6 27.5 129
I.I. S.P. 1 1 1 0.89 0.67 0.35 0.08 0.02
R.I. 1 1 1 1.13 1.5 2.85 12.7 60.5
Table 4  Surpass probability of integrated disaster risk
Figure 4  Wavelet coefficient of area affected by disasters

(a. Flood; b. Drought; c. Hailstorms; d. Low temperature)

Area
affected		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Flood 0.571** 0.273 0.406** 0.116 0.397** 0.498** 0.235 0.276
Drought -0.05 0.416** 0.424** 0.365** 0.501** 0.451** 0.507** 0.472**
Wind
hailstorms		 0.382** 0.567** 0.605** 0.514** 0.658** 0.528** 0.693** 0.710**
Low
temperature		 0.049 0.409* 0.414* 0.416* 0.480** 0.409* 0.572** 0.557**
Area
affected		 9 10
11 12 13 14 12 13 14
Flood 0.197 -0.453** 0.301* 0.409** 0.454** 0.264 0.477**
Drought 0.492** -0.421** 0.531** 0.310* 0.462** 0.548** 0.510**
Wind
hailstorms		 0.697** -0.326** 0.647** 0.227 0.681** 0.652** 0.612**
Low
temperature		 0.563** -0.192 0.532** 0.114 0.434** 0.556** 0.414*
Table 5  Correlation coefficient of index and area affected by meteorological disasters in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2012
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