Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2015, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (1): 69-84.doi: 10.1007/s11442-015-1154-2
• Orginal Article • Previous Articles Next Articles
Meihua WU1(), Yaning CHEN2,*(
), Changchun XU1
Received:
2014-01-07
Accepted:
2014-05-05
Online:
2015-01-15
Published:
2015-06-18
Contact:
Yaning CHEN
E-mail:wumeihua1026@163.com; xcc0110@163.com;chenyn@ms.xjb.ac.cn
About author:
Author: Wu Meihua, PhD, specialized in risk assessment of natural disasters. E-mail:
Supported by:
Meihua WU, Yaning CHEN, Changchun XU. Assessment of meteorological disasters based on information diffusion theory in Xinjiang, Northwest China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(1): 69-84.
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Table 1
Affected area and covered area by decadal meteorological disasters"
Age | M. A. | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A1 | A2 | B1 | B2 | C1 | C2 | D1 | D2 | |
1950s | 12.3 | 5.22 | 70.47 | 33.21 | 6.89 | |||
1960s | 13.99 | 4.83 | 205.41 | 143.95 | 25.07 | 12.27 | ||
1970s | 11.65 | 4.28 | 200.41 | 118.52 | 55.64 | 45.33 | 57.44 | 56.83 |
1980s | 95.02 | 28.45 | 243.73 | 166.03 | 74 | 36.67 | 36.87 | 17.33 |
1990s | 80.02 | 47.91 | 332.82 | 139.26 | 132.4 | 74.67 | 113.57 | 54.8 |
2000s | 73.8 | 39.57 | 455.79 | 312.78 | 228.05 | 121.33 | 176.89 | 102.91 |
Table 2
Surpass probability of ratio affected by all kinds of disasters"
Ratio affected | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.13 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | S.P. | 0.75 | 0.52 | 0.37 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
R.I. | 1.34 | 1.93 | 2.70 | 4.14 | 6.12 | 7.09 | 8.84 | 13.30 | 19.5 | 26.80 | 28.10 | 32.60 | 86.80 | |
2 | S.P. | 1 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.93 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.63 | 0.54 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.25 |
R.I. | 1 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 1.08 | 1.13 | 1.21 | 1.31 | 1.43 | 1.60 | 1.85 | 2.28 | 3.01 | 4.00 | |
3 | S.P. | 0.97 | 0.85 | 0.69 | 0.55 | 0.40 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
R.I. | 1.03 | 1.18 | 1.45 | 1.81 | 2.49 | 3.60 | 4.53 | 5.71 | 8.23 | 10.6 | 13.70 | 19.20 | 38.20 | |
4 | S.P. | 0.8 | 0.58 | 0.39 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
R.I. | 1.25 | 1.72 | 2.55 | 3.78 | 4.99 | 5.67 | 6.2 | 6.97 | 8.25 | 10.6 | 13.00 | 14.80 | 17.90 | |
Ratio affected | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.2 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.25 | ||
2 | S.P. | 0.2 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.02 | |
R.I. | 5.09 | 6.31 | 7.83 | 9.51 | 11.30 | 12.9 | 13.80 | 14.1 | 14.60 | 16.80 | 23.70 | 45.30 | ||
4 | S.P. | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | ||||||
R.I. | 23.3 | 27.3 | 28.2 | 28.4 | 30.2 | 40.20 | 89.30 |
Table 3
Surpass probability of ratio covered by all kinds of disasters"
Ratio covered | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.07 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Flood | S.P. | 0.5 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.003 | ||
R.I. | 1.99 | 5.4 | 9.48 | 15.4 | 292 | |||
Drought | S.P. | 0.98 | 0.94 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.61 | 0.47 | 0.35 |
R.I. | 1.02 | 1.07 | 1.11 | 1.25 | 1.64 | 2.14 | 2.82 | |
Hailstorms | S.P. | 0.77 | 0.58 | 0.39 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
R.I. | 1.29 | 1.73 | 2.55 | 4.76 | 8.5 | 23.4 | 28.7 | |
Low temperature | S.P. | 0.56 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.1 | 0.08 | 0.06 |
R.I. | 1.79 | 3.47 | 6.28 | 8.68 | 9.87 | 12.3 | 16.7 | |
Ratio covered | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.1 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.14 | |
Drought | S.P. | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.004 | |
R.I. | 4.33 | 6.26 | 9.71 | 20.2 | 34.2 | 249 | ||
Wind hailstorms | S.P. | 0.01 | ||||||
R.I. | 93.3 | |||||||
Low temperature | S.P. | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
R.I. | 24.4 | 27.8 | 28 | 28 | 28.6 | 38.1 | 135 |
Table 5
Correlation coefficient of index and area affected by meteorological disasters in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2012"
Area affected | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Flood | 0.571** | 0.273 | 0.406** | 0.116 | 0.397** | 0.498** | 0.235 | 0.276 |
Drought | -0.05 | 0.416** | 0.424** | 0.365** | 0.501** | 0.451** | 0.507** | 0.472** |
Wind hailstorms | 0.382** | 0.567** | 0.605** | 0.514** | 0.658** | 0.528** | 0.693** | 0.710** |
Low temperature | 0.049 | 0.409* | 0.414* | 0.416* | 0.480** | 0.409* | 0.572** | 0.557** |
Area affected | 9 | 10 | ||||||
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 14 | ||
Flood | 0.197 | -0.453** | 0.301* | 0.409** | 0.454** | 0.264 | 0.477** | |
Drought | 0.492** | -0.421** | 0.531** | 0.310* | 0.462** | 0.548** | 0.510** | |
Wind hailstorms | 0.697** | -0.326** | 0.647** | 0.227 | 0.681** | 0.652** | 0.612** | |
Low temperature | 0.563** | -0.192 | 0.532** | 0.114 | 0.434** | 0.556** | 0.414* |
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