Impact of farmland changes on production potential in China during 1990-2010

doi:10.1007/s11442-015-1150-6

Abstract

Abstract:

The quantity and spatial pattern of farmland has changed in China, which has led to a major change in the production potential under the influence of the national project of ecological environmental protection and rapid economic growth during 1990-2010. In this study, the production potential in China was calculated based on meteorological, terrain elevation, soil and land-use data from 1990, 2000 and 2010 using the Global Agro-ecological Zones model. Then, changes in the production potential in response to farmland changes from 1990 to 2010 were subsequently analyzed. The main conclusions were the following. First, the total production potential was 1.055 billion tons in China in 2010. Moreover, the average production potential was 7614 kg/ha and showed tremendous heterogeneity in spatial pattern. Total production in eastern China was high, whereas that in northwestern China was low. The regions with high per unit production potential were mainly distributed over southern China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Second, the obvious spatiotemporal heterogeneity in farmland changes from 1990 to 2010 had a significant influence on the production potential in China. The total production potential decreased in southern China and increased in northern China. Furthermore, the center of growth of the production potential moved gradually from northeastern China to northwestern China. The net decrease in the production potential was 2.97 million tons, which occupied 0.29% of the national total actual production in 2010. Third, obvious differences in the production potential in response to farmland changes from 1990 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2010 were detected. The net increase in the production potential during the first decade was 10.11 million tons and mainly distributed in the Northeast China Plain and the arid and semi-arid regions of northern China. The net decrease in the production potential during the next decade was 13.08 million tons and primarily distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River region and the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. In general, the reason for the increase in the production potential during the past two decades might be due to the reclamation of grasslands, woodlands and unused land, and the reason for the decrease in the production potential might be urbanization that occupied the farmland and Green for Grain Project, which returned farmland to forests and grasslands.

Key words: farmland, production potential, GAEZ model

Luo LIU, Xinliang XU, Jiyuan LIU, Xi CHEN, Jia NING. Impact of farmland changes on production potential in China during 1990-2010[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(1): 19-34.

Figures/Tables 11

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Period	Change type	Main causes	Total change (million tons)	Proportion (%)	Spatial distribution
1990-2000	Increase	Farmland expansion (forest and grassland reclamation), accounting for 81.5% of the total increase	34.8689	3.30	Mainly distributed in the Northeast China Plain and northern arid and semi-arid regions (Figure 5), accounting for 47.8% and 40.0%, respectively
1990-2000	Decrease	Urban sprawl and the Green for Grain Project that returns farmland to forests and grasslands, accounting for 52.8% and 32.3%, respectively of the total decrease	-24.7589	-2.34	Mainly distributed in the middle-lower Yangtze Plain, northern arid and semi-arid regions, and the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (Figure 5), accounting for 27.8%, 25.8%, and 23.5%, respectively
2000-2010	Increase	Reclamation of unused land and grassland, accounting for 48.7% and 27.3%, respectively, of the total increase	11.0183	1.03	Mainly distributed in the northern arid and semi-arid regions (Figure 6), accounting for 64.1% of the total decrease
2000-2010	Decrease	Urban sprawl, accounting for 66.0% of the total decrease	-24.1028	-2.26	Mainly distributed in the middle-lower Yangtze Plain and Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (Figure 6), accounting for 38.0% and 22.6%, respectively, of the total decrease

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