An approach to spatially explicit reconstruction of historical forest in Northeast China

doi:10.1007/s11442-014-1135-x

Abstract

Abstract:

The spatially explicit reconstruction of historical land-cover datasets plays an important role in studying the climatic and ecological effects of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC). Using potential natural vegetation (PNV) and satellite-based land use data, we determined the possible maximum distribution extent of forest cover in the absence of human disturbance. Subsequently, topography and climate factors were selected to assess the suitability of land for cultivation. Finally, a historical forest area allocation model was devised on the basis of the suitability of land for cultivation. As a case study, we used the historical forest area allocation model to reconstruct forest cover for 1780 and 1940 in Northeast China with a 10-km resolution. To validate the model, we compared satellite-based forest cover data with our reconstruction for 2000. A one-sample t-test of absolute bias showed that the two-tailed significance was 0.12, larger than the significant level 0.05, suggesting that the model has strong ability to capture the spatial distribution of forests. In addition, we calculated the relative difference of our reconstruction at the county scale for 1780 in Northeast China. The number of counties whose relative difference ranged from -30% to 30% is 99, accounting for 74.44% of all counties. These findings demonstrated that the provincial forest area could be transformed into forest cover maps well using the model.

Key words: forest cover, gridding approach, historical period, Northeast China

Shicheng LI, Fanneng HE, Xuezhen ZHANG. An approach to spatially explicit reconstruction of historical forest in Northeast China[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2014, 24(6): 1022-1034.

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Altitude level (m)	Reassigned value (m)	Slope level (°)	Reassigned value (°)
≤100	100	≤2	2
100-250	250	2-6	6
250-500	500	6-15	15
500-750	750	15-25	25
750-1000	1000	>25	45
1000-1500	1500
1500-2000	2000
2000-3000	3000
>3000	4000

Province	1780	1940
Liaoning	67946	12233
Jilin	118209	59863
Heilongjiang	282362	163650

Test mean = 0
T	df	Significance (2-tailed)	Mean	95% confidence interval of the difference
T	df	Significance (2-tailed)	Mean	Lower	Upper
1.55	5834	0.12	0.74	-0.20	1.67

Relative difference (%)	<-50	-50 to -30	-30 to -10	-10 to 10	10 to 30	30 to 50	>50	Missing data
Number of counties	6	10	42	48	9	4	14	51
Fraction of counties (%)	4.51	7.52	31.58	36.09	6.77	3.01	10.53	—

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