Water demand forecasting of Beijing using the Time Series Forecasting Method

doi:10.1007/s11442-012-0973-7

Abstract

Abstract:

It is essential to establish the water resources exploitation and utilization planning, which is mainly based on recognizing and forecasting the water consumed structure rationally and scientifically. During the past 30 years (1980-2009), mean annual precipitation and total water resource of Beijing have decreased by 6.89% and 31.37% compared with those perennial values, respectively, while total water consumption during the same period reached pinnacle historically. Accordingly, it is of great significance for the harmony between socio-economic development and environmental development. Based on analyzing total water consumption, agricultural, industrial, domestic and environmental water consumption, and evolution of water consumed structure, further driving forces of evolution of total water consumption and water consumed structure are revealed systematically. Prediction and discussion are achieved for evolution of total water consumption, water consumed structure, and supply-demand situation of water resource in the near future of Beijing using Time Series Forecasting Method. The purpose of the endeavor of this paper is to provide scientific basis for the harmonious development between socio-economy and water resources, for the establishment of rational strategic planning of water resources, and for the social sustainable development of Beijing with scientific bases.

Key words: Beijing, water consumed structure, industrial structure, water demand forecasting

ZHAI Yuanzheng, WANG Jinsheng, TENG Yanguo, ZUO Rui. Water demand forecasting of Beijing using the Time Series Forecasting Method[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2012, 22(5): 919-932.

References

Armstrong J, Fildes R, 2006. Making progress in forecasting. Int. J. Forecast, 22: 433-441.
Bougadis J, Adamowski K, Diduch R, 2005. Short-term municipal water demand forecasting. J. Hydrol. Process., 19: 137-148.
Chen Y N, Xu Z X, 2005. Plausible impact of global climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin. Science in China (Series D), 48(1): 65-73.
Chu J Y, Wang C, Chen J N et al., 2009. Agent-based residential water use behavior simulation and policy implications: A case-study in Beijing City. Water Resour. Manage., 23: 3267-3295.
Cui Y L, Wang Y B, Shao J L et al., 2009. Research on groundwater regulation and recovery in North China Plain after the implementation of South-to-North Water Transfer. Resources Science, 31(3): 382-387. (in Chinese)
Ding X Y, Jia Y W, Wang H et al., 2010. Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Haihe River Basin and corresponding countermeasures. Journal of Natural Resources, 25 (4): 604-613. (in Chinese)
Hao X M, Chen Y N, Xu C C et al., 2008. Impacts of climate change and human activities on the surface runoff in the Tarim River Basin over the last fifty years. Water Resour. Manage., 22: 1159-1171.
Huang Q X, He C Y, Shi P J et al., 2009. Modeling water resources carrying capacity change under stress of drought and socio-economic development in Beijing. Journal of Natural Resources, 24(5): 859-870. (in Chinese)
Jain A, Joshi U, Varshney A, 2001. Short-term water demand forecast modeling at IIT Kanpur using artificial neural networks. Water Resour. Manage., 15: 299-321.
Labat D, Godderis Y, Probst J L et al., 2004. Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming. Adv. Water Resour., 27: 631-642.
Lioubimtseva E, Cole R, Adams J M et al., 2005. Impacts of climate and land-cover changes in arid lands of Central Asia. J. Arid Environ., 62: 285-308.
Liu B Q, Yao Z J, Gao Y C, 2003. Trend and driving forces of water consumed structure changes in Beijing. Resources Science, 25(2): 38-43. (in Chinese)
Liu J H, Qin D Y, Wang H et al., 2010. Dualistic water cycle pattern and its evolution in Haihe River Basin. Chinese Science Bulletin, 55(16): 1688-1697.
Mohamed M M, Aysha A A, 2010. Water demand forecasting in Umm Al-Quwain (UAE) using the IWR-MAIN specify forecasting model. Water Resour. Manage., 24: 4093-4120.
Qin L, Zhou X, 2010. Estimating possible impact of human activity on the warm season temperature in Beijing since the industrial era. Chinese Science Bulletin, 55(16): 1590-1593.
Song X F, Li F D, Yu J J et al., 2007. Characteristics of groundwater cycle using deuterium, oxygen-18 and hydrochemistry in Chaobai River Basin. Geographical Research, 26(1): 1-21. (in Chinese)
Xu C Y, 2000. Modeling the effects of climate change on water resources in Central Sweden. Water Resour. Manage., 14(3): 177-189.
Zhang H, Wu J W, Zheng Q H et al., 2003. A preliminary study of oasis evolution in the Tarim Basin, Xinjiang, China. J. Arid Environ., 55: 545-553.
Zhang Y K, Schilling K E, 2006. Increasing streamflow and baseflow in Mississippi River since the 1940s: Effect of land use change. J. Hydrol., 324: 412-422.

[1]	GAO Jiangbo, ZUO Liyuan. Revealing ecosystem services relationships and their driving factors for five basins of Beijing [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2021, 31(1): 111-129.
[2]	SHI Xiaoli, DU Chenliang, GUO Xudong, SHI Wenjiao. Heterogeneity of water-retention capacity of forest and its influencing factors based on meta-analysis in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2021, 31(1): 69-90.
[3]	ZHOU Kan, YIN Yue, LI Hui, SHEN Yuming. Driving factors and spatiotemporal effects of environmental stress in urban agglomeration: Evidence from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2021, 31(1): 91-110.
[4]	YANG Wenjie, GONG Qianwen, ZHANG Xueyan. Surplus or deficit? Quantifying the total ecological compensation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(4): 621-641.
[5]	NIU Fangqu, YANG Xinyu, ZHANG Xiaoping. Application of an evaluation method of resource and environment carrying capacity in the adjustment of industrial structure in Tibet [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(2): 319-332.
[6]	KANG Lei, LIU Yi. Characteristics of industrial structure evolution and isomorphism in Central Asia [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(11): 1781-1801.
[7]	Guohua HE, Yong ZHAO, Jianhua WANG, Yongnan ZHU, Shan JIANG, Haihong LI, Qingming WANG. The effects of urban water cycle on energy consumption in Beijing, China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(6): 959-970.
[8]	Liying GUO, Liping DI, Qing TIAN. Detecting spatio-temporal changes of arable land and construction land in the Beijing-Tianjin corridor during 2000-2015 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(5): 702-718.
[9]	Liang WANG, Hui LIU. Comprehensive evaluation of regional resources and environmental carrying capacity using a PS-DR-DP theoretical model [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(3): 363-376.
[10]	SUN Wei, LI Qihang, LI Bo. Does geographic distance have a significant impact on enterprise financing costs? [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(12): 1965-1980.
[11]	Fang WANG, Jing HE, Chunyan JIANG, Yixi LI. Evolution of the commercial blocks in ancient Beijing city from the street network perspective [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(6): 845-868.
[12]	Jiawen FANG. An analysis of the differentiation rules and influencing factors of venture capital in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(4): 514-528.
[13]	Jingtao YAO, Xiangbin KONG. Modeling the effects of land-use optimization on the soil organic carbon sequestration potential [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(11): 1641-1658.
[14]	Yu CHEN, Fengjun JIN, Yuqi LU, Zhuo CHEN, Yu YANG. Development history and accessibility evolution of land transportation network in Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei region over the past century [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(10): 1500-1518.
[15]	Wenhui KUANG, Tianrong YANG, Fengqin YAN. Examining urban land-cover characteristics and ecological regulation during the construction of Xiong’an New District, Hebei Province, China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(1): 109-123.