Statistical and environmental analyses for the definition of a regional rainfall threshold system for landslide triggering in Tuscany (Italy)

doi:10.1007/s11442-012-0951-0

Abstract

Abstract:

The aim of this work is the determination of regional-scale rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in the Tuscany Region (Italy). The critical rainfall events related to the occurrence of 593 past landslides were characterized in terms of duration (D) and intensity (I). I and D values were plotted in a log-log diagram and a lower boundary was clearly noticeable: it was interpreted as a threshold representing the rainfall conditions associated to landsliding. That was also confirmed by a comparison with many literature thresholds, but at the same time it was clear that a similar threshold would be affected by a too large approximation to be effectively used for a regional warning system. Therefore, further analyses were performed differentiating the events on the basis of seasonality, magnitude, location, land use and lithology. None of these criteria led to discriminate among all the events different groups to be characterized by a specific and more effective threshold. This outcome could be interpreted as the demonstration that at regional scale the best results are obtained by the simplest approach, in our case an empirical black box model which accounts only for two rainfall parameters (I and D). So a set of thresholds could be conveniently defined using a statistical approach: four thresholds corresponding to four severity levels were defined by means of the prediction interval technique and we developed a prototype warning system based on rainfall recordings or weather forecasts.

Key words: landslide, threshold, rainfall, black box models, prediction intervals

ROSI Ascanio, SEGONI Samuele, CATANI Filippo, CASAGLI Nicola. Statistical and environmental analyses for the definition of a regional rainfall threshold system for landslide triggering in Tuscany (Italy)[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2012, 22(4): 617-629.

References

Aleotti P, 2004. A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures. Eng. Geol., 73: 247-265.
Bianchi F, Catani F, 2002. Landscape dynamics risk management in Northern Apennines (Italy). Environmental Studies, 7: 319-328.
Bortolotti V (Coord.), 1992. The Tuscany-Emilian Apennine. Regional Geological Guidebook, Vol.4, S.G.I., BEMA Editrice, 329pp. (in Italian)
Brassel K E, Reif D, 1979. A procedure to generate Thiessen polygons. Geographical Analysis, 11: 289-303.
Brunetti M T, Peruccacci S, Rossi M et al., 2010. Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10: 447-458.
Brunsden D, 1973. The application of system theory to the study of mass movement. Geol. App. Idrogeoeol., 8 (1):185-207.
Caine N, 1980. The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows. Geogr. Ann.: A, 62:23-27.
Calcaterra D, Parise M, Palma B, Pelella L, 2000. The influence of meteoric events in triggering shallow landslidesin pyroclastic deposits of Campania, Italy. In: Bromhead E, Dixon N, Ibsen M L (ed.). Proc. 8th Int.
Symp. on Landslides. Vol.1. Cardiff, A.A. Balkema: 209-214.
Cannon S H, Gartner J E, Wilson R C et al., 2008. Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows fromrecently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California. Geomorphology, 96: 250-269.
Carrara A, Sorriso-Valvo M, Reali C, 1982. Analysis of landslide form and incidence by statistical techniques.Southern Italy, Catena, 9: 35-62.
Catani F, Segoni S, Falorni G, 2010. An empirical geomorphology-based approach to the spatial prediction of soilthickness at catchment scale. Water Resour. Res., 46: W05508.
Chatfield C, 1993. Calculating interval forecasts. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 11(2): 121-135.
Corominas J, Ayala F J, Cendrero A et al., 2005. Impacts on natural hazard of climatic origin. In: ECCE Final Report: A Preliminary Assessment of the Impacts in Spain due to the Effects of Climate Change. Ministerio de Medio Ambiente. http://www.mma.es/secciones/cambio_climatico/documentacion_cc/Historicos_cc/pdf/preliminary_assessment_impacts_full_2.pdf.
Elter P, 1984. Introduction to the study of the Northern Apennine within the Alps System. Suppl. n.1 ai Quad. Museo Storia Naturale, Livorno, 6: 1-21. (in Italian)
Fazzuoli M, Pandeli E, Sani F, 1994. Considerations on the sedimentary and structural evolution of the Tuscan Domain since Early Liassin to Tortonian. Mem. Soc. Geol It., 48: 31-50.
Floris M, Mari M, Romeo R W et al., 2004. Modelling of landslide-triggering factors: A case study in the Northern Apennines, Italy. In: Hack R, Azzam R, Charlier R (ed.). Lecture Notes in Earth Sciences 104:
Engineering Geology for Infrastructure Planning in Europe. Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer, 745-753.
Giannecchini R, 2005. Rainfall triggering soil slips in the southern Apuan Alps (Tuscany, Italy). Advances in Geosciences, 2: 21-24.
Godt J W, Baum RL, Chleborad A F, 2006. Rainfall characteristics for shallow landsliding in Seattle, Washington,USA. Earth Surf. Proc. and Land., 31: 97-110.
Guzzetti F, Peruccaci S, Rossi M et al., 2007. Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central andsouthern Europe. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 98: 239-267.
Guzzetti F, Peruccacci S, Rossi M et al., 2008. The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides anddebris flows: An update. Landslides, 5(1): 3-17.
Jibson R W, 1989. Debris flow in southern Porto Rico. Geological Society of America (special paper), 236: 29-55.
Martelloni G, Segoni S, Fanti R et al., 2011. Rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide occurrence atregional scale. Landslides, doi: 10.1007/s10346-011-0308-2.
Meade N, Islam T, 1995. Prediction intervals for growth curve forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 14: 413-430.
Montgomery D R, Schmidt K M, Greenberg H M, 2000. Forest clearing and regional landsliding. Geology, 28(4):311-314.
Rapetti F, Vittorini S, 1994. Rainfall in Tuscany: Observation about extreme events. Riv. Geogr. Ital., 101: 47-76.(in Italian)
Segoni S, Leoni L, Benedetti A I et al., 2009. Towards a definition of a real-time forecasting network for rainfallinduced shallow landslides. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9: 2119-2133.
Segoni S, Rossi G, Catani F, 2012. Improving basin-scale shallow landslide modelling using reliable soil thicknessmaps. Natural Hazards, 61: 85-101, doi: 10.1007/s11069-011-9770-3.
Thiessen A J, Alter J C, 1911. Precipitation Averages for Large Areas. Monthly Weather Review, 39: 1082-1084.
Vai G B, Martini I P, 2001. Anatomy of an Orogen: The Appennines and adjacent Mediterranean Basins. Dortdrecht/Boston/London: Kluver Academic Publishers, 632pp.
Wieczorek G F, Glade T, 2005. Climatic factors influencing occurrence of debris flows. In: Jakob M, Hungr O(ed). Debris Flow Hazards and Related Phenomena. Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer, 325-362.
Zêzere J L, Trigo R M, Trigo I F, 2005. Shallow and deep landslides induced by rainfall in the Lisbon region(Portugal): Assessment of relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Natural Hazards and Earth Sys. Sci., 5: 331-344.

[1]	LIU Xiaoyan, DANG Suzhen, LIU Changming, DONG Guotao. Effects of rainfall intensity on the sediment concentration in the Loess Plateau, China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2020, 30(3): 455-467.
[2]	YANG Chongyao, HUANG Yongmei, LI Engui, LI Zeqing. Rainfall interception of typical ecosystems in the Heihe River Basin: Based on high temporal resolution soil moisture data [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(9): 1527-1547.
[3]	Liying SUN, Haiyan FANG, Qiangguo CAI, Xihua YANG, Jijun HE, John L. ZHOU, Xunming WANG. Sediment load change with erosion processes under simulated rainfall events [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(6): 1001-1020.
[4]	Gaocong LI, Liang ZHOU, Yali QI, Shu GAO. Threshold sediment flux for the formation of river deltas in Hainan Island, southern China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2019, 29(1): 146-160.
[5]	Ying WANG, Qigen LIN, Peijun SHI. Spatial pattern and influencing factors of landslide casualty events [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(3): 259-374.
[6]	Jun WANG, Lina ZHONG, Wenwu ZHAO, Lingxiao YING. The influence of rainfall and land use patterns on soil erosion in multi-scale watersheds: A case study in the hilly and gully area on the Loess Plateau, China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2018, 28(10): 1415-1426.
[7]	Yousheng WANG, Shi TAN, Baoyuan *LIU, Yang YANG. Estimating rainfall erosivity by incorporating seasonal variations in parameters into the Richardson model [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2017, 27(3): 275-296.
[8]	Jun LI, Changming LIU, Zhonggen WANG, Kang LIANG. Two universal runoff yield models: SCS vs. LCM [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(3): 311-318.
[9]	Haigen ZHAO, Shengtian YANG, Zhiwei WANG, Xu ZHOU, Ya LUO, Linna WU. Evaluating the suitability of TRMM satellite rainfall data for hydrological simulation using a distributed hydrological model in the Weihe River catchment in China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(2): 177-195.
[10]	XIA Jun, DU Hong, ZENG Sidong, SHE Dunxian, ZHANG Yongyong, YAN Ziqi, YE Yan. Temporal and spatial variations and statistical models of extreme runoff in Huaihe River Basin during 1956-2010 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2012, 22(6): 1045-1060.
[11]	LI Peng, FENG Zhiming, JIANG Luguang, LIU Yujie, XIAO Xiangming. Changes in rice cropping systems in the Poyang Lake Region, China during 2004-2010 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2012, 22(4): 653-668.
[12]	LI Zijun, LI Xiubin, XU Zhimei. Impacts of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on annual runoff in the Chaohe River Basin during 1961–2005 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2010, 20(6): 947-960.
[13]	XU Jing-Ji, YANG Cong, LIU Chang-Meng, SONG Xian-Fang, HU Shan-Shan, LI Fa-Dong, TANG Chang-Yuan. Slope runoff study in situ using rainfall simulator in mountainous area of North China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2009, 19(4): 461-470.
[14]	ZHANG Zi-Yin, GONG Dao-Yi, HU Miao, GUO Dong, HE Hua-Zhao, LEI Yang-Na. Anomalous winter temperature and precipitation events in southern China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2009, 19(4): 471-488.
[15]	BAI Jingyu, XU Xiangde. Atmospheric hydrological budget with its effects over Tibetan Plateau [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2004, 14(1): 81-86.