Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2011, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (3): 475-488.doi: 10.1007/s11442-011-0858-1

• Human-Environment Interactions • Previous Articles     Next Articles

The temporal and spatial evaluation on China's agricultural policy output since 1978

YU Jianhui1,2,3, ZHANG Wenzhong1,2, WANG Dai1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China
  • Received:2010-07-19 Revised:2010-11-01 Online:2011-06-15 Published:2011-06-15
  • Supported by:

    Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KZCX-YW-Q06

Abstract:

Since reform and opening up, how much contribution has China's implementation of new agricultural policy made to agricultural output? This paper is trying to establish an agricultural policy output econometric model for doing a quantitative analysis of China's new agricultural policy. The results show that China's agricultural policies on agricultural output have an average contribution rate of about 7% since 1978, which is consistent with the OECD's basic forecast. There are obvious temporal and spatial differences. Generally speaking, we can divide the contribution of agricultural policy into three periods, which are the start-up phase from 1978 to 1991 (14 years), the stationary phase from 1992 to 2002 (11 years) and the rising phase from 2003 to 2008 (6 years). In space, the contribution of agricultural policy underwent a process from the all-low in the start-up phase, the gradual increase in the stationary phase to the all-high in the rising phase. Northern and western regions are more sensitive to policies. There are three major factors that can affect the contribution of regional agricultural policies, which are the process of national industrialization strategy, terrain and the level of local finance.

Key words: evaluation, agricultural policy, econometric model, China