Community-based scenario modelling and disaster risk assessment of urban rainstorm waterlogging

doi:10.1007/s11442-011-0844-7

Abstract

Abstract:

Scenario modelling and the risk assessment of natural disasters is one of the hotspots in disaster research. However, up until now, urban natural disaster risk assessments lack common procedures and programmes. This paper selects rainstorm waterlogging as a disaster to research, which is one of the most frequently occurring hazards for most cities in China. As an example, we used a small-scale integrated methodology to assess risks relating to rainstorm waterlogging hazards in the Jing’an District of Shanghai. Based on the basic concept of disaster risk, this paper applies scenario modelling to express the risk of small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters in different return periods. Through this analysis of vulnerability and exposure, we simulate different disaster scenarios and propose a comprehensive analysis method and procedure for small-scale urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessments. A grid-based Geographical Information System (GIS) approach, including an urban terrain model, an urban rainfall model and an urban drainage model, was applied to simulate inundation area and depth. Stage-damage curves for residential buildings and contents were then generated by the loss data of waterlogging from field surveys, which were further applied to analyse vulnerability, exposure and loss assessment. Finally, the exceedance probability curve for disaster damage was constructed using the damage of each simulated event and the respective exceedance probabilities. A framework was also developed for coupling the waterlogging risk with the risk planning and management through the exceedance probability curve and annual average waterlogging loss. This is a new exploration for small-scale urban natural disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment.

Key words: scenario modelling, small-scale, rainstorm waterlogging, disaster risk assessment, Shanghai

YIN Zhan’e, YIN Jie, XU Shiyuan, WEN Jiahong. Community-based scenario modelling and disaster risk assessment of urban rainstorm waterlogging[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2011, 21(2): 274-284.

References

Arnell N W, 1999. Expected annual damage and uncertainties in flood frequency estimation. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 115: 94-107.
Berning C, DuPlessis L A, Viljoen M F, 2001. Loss function for structural flood mitigation measures. Water SA,27(1): 35-38.
Berning C, Viljoen M F, DuPlessis L A, 2000. Loss function for sugar-cane: Depth and duration of inundation as determinates of extent of flood damage. Water SA, 26(4): 527-530.
Cheng Jiang, Yang Kai, Zhao Jun et al., 2007. Variation of river system in center district of Shanghai and its impact factors during the last one hundred years. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 27(1): 85-91. (in Chinese)
Cong Xiangyu, Ni Guangheng, Hui Shibo et al., 2006. Simulative analysis on storm flood in typical urban region of Beijing based on SWMM. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, (4): 64-67. (in Chinese)
Dutta D, Herath S, Musiake K, 2003. A mathematical model for flood loss estimation. Journal of Hydrology, 277:24-49.
Goldman D, 1997. Estimating expected annual damage for levee retrofits. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 123(2): 89-94.
Guo Lihua, Long Yi, 2002. Analysis of flood submerging based on DEM. Bulletin of Surveying and Mapping, (11):25-30. (in Chinese)
Hardison C H, Jennings M E, 1972. Bias in computed flood risk. Journal of the Hydraulics Division, 98(3):415-427.
Hays WW, 1991. Hazard and risk assessment in the United States. Episodes, 14(1): 7-12.
He Baogen, Chen Chungen, Zhou Naisheng, 2003. Urbanized area runoff coefficient and its application. Shanghai Environmental Sciences, 22(7): 472-475. (in Chinese)
Helm P, 1996. Integrated risk management for natural and technological disasters. Tephra, 15(1): 4-13.
Jonkman S N, 2007. Loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment
[D]. Delft University.
Jonkman S N, Bockarjova M, Kok M et al., 2008. Integrated hydrodynamic and economic modeling of flood damage in the Netherlands. Ecological Economics, 66: 77-90.
Kang Xiangwu, Wu Shaohong, Dai Erfu et al., 2006. Large-scale flood losses and the impact pre-assessment.Chinese Science Bulletin, 51(suppl.): 155-164. (in Chinese)
Li Weifeng, Chen Qiuwen, Mao Jingqiao, 2009. Study on flood risk modeling of Beijing Olympic Village. Chinese Science Bulletin, 54(3): 321-328. (in Chinese)
Liu Renyi, Liu Nan, 2001. A GIS based model for calculating of flood area. Acta Geographica Sinica, 56(1): 1-6.(in Chinese)
Maaskant Bob, Jonkman Sebastiaan N, Bouwer Laurens M, 2009. Future risk of flooding: An analysis of changes in potential loss of life in South Holland (The Netherlands). Environmental Science & Policy, 12: 157-169.
Ministry of Urban and Rural Construction and Environmental Protection of the People’s Republic of China, 1987.JGJ37-87: Code for Design of Civil Buildings. (in Chinese)
Plate E J, 2002. Flood risk and flood management. Journal of Hydrology, 267: 2-11.
Qiu Jingwei, Li Na, Cheng Xiaotao et al., 2000. The simulation system for heavy rainfall in Tianjin City. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 31(11): 34-42. (in Chinese)
Quan Ruisong, Liu Min, Lu Min et al., 2009. Waterlogging risk assessment based on land use/cover change: A case study in Pudong New Area, Shanghai. Environmental Earth Sciences, doi: 10.1007/s12665-009-0431-8.
Richard H F, Julianne J M, Charles D et al., 2006. Use of remotely sensed data to estimate the flow of water to a playa lake. Journal of Hydrology, 325:67-81.
Shanghai Municipal Engineering Design General Institute, 2003. Water Supply & Drainage Design Handbook:Urban Drainage. Beijing: China Architecture & Building Press, 52-69. (in Chinese)
Shanghai Municipal Statistics Bureau, 2009. Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 2009. (in Chinese)
Shi P J, Du J, Ji M X, 2006. Urban risk assessment research of major natural disasters in China. Advances in Earth Science, 21(2): 170-177.
Shi P J, Yuan Y, Chen J, 2001. The effect of land use on runoff in Shenzhen City of China. Acta Ecologica Sinica,21(7): 1041-1049. (in Chinese)
Smith D I, 1994. Flood damage estimation: A review of urban stage-damage curves and loss functions. Water SA,20(3): 231-238.
Su M D, Kang J L, Chang L F et al., 2005. A grid-based GIS approach to regional flood damage assessment.Journal of Marine Science and Technology, 13(3): 184-192.
UNDRO, 1991. Mitigating Natural Disasters: Phenomena, Effects and Options. United Nations Disaster Relief Coordinator, United Nations: New York, 164.
U.S. Soil Conservation Service, 1972. National Engineering Handbook Section 4, hydrology. U.S. Government Printing Office, USA.
Wang Lin, Qin Qiming, Li Jizhi et al., 2004. Study on the disaster analysis model of water-logging in city based on GIS. Science of Surveying and Mapping, 29(3): 48-51. (in Chinese)
Xu Shiyuan, Wang Jun, Shi Chun et al., 2006. Research of the natural disaster risk on coastal cities. Acta Geographica Sinica, 61(2): 127-138. (in Chinese)
Yang Yi, Wu Sheng, 2009. Analysis and study on urban rainstorm seeper simulation. Journal of Geomatics, 34(1):35-37. (in Chinese)
Yen B C, Akan A O, 1999. Hydraulic design of urban drainage systems. In: Mays L W. Hydraulic Design Handbook.New York: McGraw-Hill.
Zhang Li, 1995. Urban flooding analysis and modeling using GIS. Acta Geographica Sinica, 50(suppl.): 76-84.(in Chinese)
Zhao Sijian, Chen Zhiyuan, Xiong Liya, 2004. Establishment of simplified urban waterlogging model using spatial analysis. Journal of Natural Disasters, 13(6): 8-14. (in Chinese)
Zheng Xiaoyang, Hu Chuanlian, 2003. Shanghai flood control and decision support system design. Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources, 23(1): 25-27. (in Chinese)
Zhou Naisheng, Yuan Wen, 1993. The study on storm born surface water accumulation in downtown area of Shanghai. Acta Geographica Sinica, 48(3): 262-271. (in Chinese)

[1]	Weidong CAO, Yingying LI, Jianquan CHENG, MILLINGTON Steven. Location patterns of urban industry in Shanghai and implications for sustainability [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2017, 27(7): 857-878.
[2]	Degen WANG, Li WANG, Tian CHEN, Lin LU, Yu NIU, August Lew ALAN. HSR mechanisms and effects on the spatial structure of regional tourism in China [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(12): 1725-1753.
[3]	ZHANG Zengxin, ZHANG Qiang, ZHANG Jinchi, ZOU Lanjun,JIANG Jianmin. Observed dryness and wetness variability in Shanghai during 1873–2005 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2009, 19(2): 143-152.
[4]	ZHANG Qiang, CHEN Jiaqi, ZHANG Zengxin. Observed climatic changes in Shanghai during 1873-2002 [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2005, 15(2): 217-222.
[5]	YAO Chunxia, CHEN Zhenlou, XU Shiyuan, LI Ling, WANG Li, LIN Shanshan. Pollution characteristics of the rivers in suburban Shanghai [J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2005, 15(1): 29-36.