Using autologistic spatial models to simulate the distribution of land-use patterns in Zhangjiajie, Hunan Province

doi:10.1007/s11442-010-0310-y

Abstract

Abstract:

Nowadays, spatial simulation on land use patterns is one of the key contents of LUCC. Modeling is an important tool for simulating land use patterns due to its ability to integrate measurements of changes in land cover and the associated drivers. The conventional regression model can only analyze the correlation between land use types and driving factors, but cannot depict the spatial autocorrelation characteristics. Land uses in Yongding County, which is located in the typical karst mountain areas in northwestern Hunan province, were investigated by means of modeling the spatial autocorrelation of land use types with the purpose of deriving better spatial land use patterns on the basis of terrain characteristics and infrastructural conditions. Through incorporating components describing the spatial autocorrelation into a conventional logistic model, we constructed a regression model (Autologistic model), and used this model to simulate and analyze the spatial land use patterns in Yongding County. According to the comparison with the conventional logistic model without considering the spatial autocorrelation, this model showed better goodness and higher accuracy of fitting. The distribution of arable land, wood land, built-up land and unused land yielded areas under the ROC curves (AUC) was improved to 0.893, 0.940, 0.907 and 0.863 respectively with the autologistic model. It is argued that the improved model based on autologistic method was reasonable to a certain extent. Meanwhile, these analysis results could provide valuable information for modeling future land use change scenarios with actual conditions of local and regional land use, and the probability maps of land use types obtained from this study could also support government decision-making on land use management for Yongding County and other similar areas.

Key words: land-use patterns, spatial simulation, autologistic model, spatial autocorrelation, Yongding County of Zhangjiajie City

WU Guiping, ZENG Yongnian, XIAO Pengfeng, FENG Xuezhi, HU Xiaotian. Using autologistic spatial models to simulate the distribution of land-use patterns in Zhangjiajie, Hunan Province[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2010, 20(2): 310-320.

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