Journal of Geographical Sciences ›› 2008, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (4): 455-468.doi: 10.1007/s11442-008-0455-0

• Climate and Environmental Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Land use change of Kitakyushu based on landscape ecology and Markov model

GUAN Dongjie1, GAO Weijun1, WATARI Kazuyuki1, FUKAHORI Hidetoshi2   

  1. 1. Department of Environmental Space Design, Faculty of Environmental Engineering, The University of Kitakyushu,Kitakyushu 8080135, Japan|
    2. Planning Section of Sewer and River Department in Kitakyushu, Kitakyushu 8080135, Japan
  • Received:2008-02-29 Revised:2008-05-10 Online:2008-12-25 Published:2010-09-18
  • Supported by:

    Sasakawa Scientific Foundation of Japan, No.20-238; National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program), No.2006CB403200; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40261002; No.40561006

Abstract:

Based on four phases of TM images acquired in 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005, this paper took Kitakyushu in Japan as a case study to analyze spatial change of land use landscape and corresponding effects on environmental issues guided by landscape ecology theory in virtue of combining technology of Remote Sensing with GIS. Firstly, land use types were divided into 6 classes (farmland, mountain, forestland, water body, urban land and unused land) according to national classification standard of land use, comprehensible ability of TM image and purpose of this study. Secondly, following the theory of landscape ecology analysis, 11 typical landscape indices were abstracted to evaluate the environmental effects and spatial feature changes of land use. Research results indicated that land use has grown more and more diversified and unbalanced, human activities have disturbed the landscape more seriously. Finally, transfer matrix of Markov was applied to forecast change process of land use in the future different periods, and then potential land use changes were also simulated from 2010 to 2050. Results showed that conversion tendency for all types of land use in Kitakyushu into urban construction land were enhanced. The study was anticipated to help local authorities better understand and address a complex land use system, and develop improved land use management strategies that could better balance urban expansion and ecological conservation.

Key words: land use, landscape ecology, Markov model, Kitakyushu in Japan