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地理学报(英文版)  2016, Vol. 26 Issue (7): 827-854
Recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 years
Recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 years
GE Quansheng1, *ZHENG Jingyun1, HAO Zhixin1, LIU Yang1,2, LI Mingqi1

Author: Ge Quansheng (1963-), Professor, specialized in climate change for the past 2000 years. E-mail: geqs@igsnrr. ac.cn

*Corresponding author: Zheng Jingyun, Professor, E-mail: zhengjy@igsnrr.ac.cn

Abstract

China is distinguished by a prominent monsoonal climate in the east of the country, a continental arid climate in the northwest and a highland cold climate on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Because of the long history of Chinese civilization, there are abundant and well-dated documentary records for climate variation over the whole of the country as well as many natural archives (e.g., tree-rings, ice cores, stalagmites, varved lake sediments and corals) that enable high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstruction. In this paper, we review recent advances in the reconstruction of climate and extreme events over the last 2000 years in China. In the last 10 years, many new reconstructions, based on multi-proxies with wide spatial coverage, have been published in China. These reconstructions enable us to understand the characteristics of climate change across the country as well as the uncertainties of regional reconstructions. Synthesized reconstructed temperature results show that warm intervals over the last 2000 years occurred in AD 1-200, AD 551-760, AD 951-1320, and after AD 1921, and also show that cold intervals were in AD 201-350, AD 441-530, AD 781-950, and AD 1321-1920. Extreme cold winters, seen between 1500 and 1900, were more frequent than those after 1950. The intensity of regional heat waves, in the context of recent global warming, may not in fact exceed natural climate variability seen over the last 2000 years. In the eastern monsoonal region of China, decadal, multi-decadal and centennial oscillations are seen in rainfall variability. While the ensemble mean for drought/flood spatial patterns across all cold periods shows a meridional distribution, there is a tri-pole pattern with respect to droughts south of 25°N, floods between 25° and 30°N, and droughts north of 30°N for all warm periods. Data show that extreme drought events were most frequent in the periods AD 301-400, AD 751-800, AD 1051-1150, AD 1501-1550, and AD 1601-1650, while extreme flood events were frequent in the periods AD 101-150, AD 251-300, AD 951-1000, AD 1701-1750, AD 1801-1850, and AD 1901-1950. Between AD 1551-1600, extreme droughts and flood events occurred frequently. In arid northwest China, climate was characterized by dry conditions in AD 1000-1350, wet conditions in AD 1500-1850, and has tended to be wet over recent decades. On the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, centennial-scale oscillations in precipitation have occurred over the last 1000 years, interrupted by several multi- decadal-scale severe drought events. Of these, the most severe were in the 1480s and 1710s. In southwest China, extreme droughts as severe as those seen in Sichuan and Chongqing in 2006 are known to have occurred during historical times.

Key words: high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstruction; extreme events; China; 2000 years;
1 Introduction

The study of past climate change enables us to know what has happened in the Earth System, improve our understanding of natural climatic variability, and provide a long-term context for recent climate change (e.g., warming over the 20th century and its hiatus at the start of the 21st century). Data can also be used to assess the relative roles played by natural climate variability in contrast to anthropogenic forcing. Specifically, study of regional climate change over the last 2000 years can provide spatial patterns in variations and various scenarios for measuring the sensitivity and operation of the current climate system (e.g., modulations in internal variability, feedbacks and connections, abrupt changes and regional extreme events) on inter-annual to centennial scales and provide us with knowledge to predict and project climate changes in the near future (PAGES, 2009).

China is characterized by a monsoonal climate in the east, a continental arid climate in the northwest and a cold highland climate on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the southwest. This variety of climate has given rise to a wide range of natural archives (e.g., tree-rings, ice cores, stalagmites, varved lake sediments) that can be used for high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstructions. In addition, the long history of civilization in China also means there are abundant and well-dated documentary records to illustrate the precise sequence of climate change over the last few thousand years and their impacts, especially on humans (Bradley et al., 1993).

In China, the most famous pioneer to study past climate change was Professor Chu Ko- Chen. He critically examined climate-related records from Chinese historical documents and published research papers from the 1920s onwards. One of his major accomplishments was the publication of “a preliminary study on the climatic fluctuations during the past 5000 years in China” that drew on phenological records and evidence for warm and cold events extracted from Chinese historical documents (Chu, 1973). Subsequent to this benchmark study, a nationwide cooperative effort was conducted to extract the enormous number of records of meteorological disasters (e.g., droughts, floods, heat waves, snowstorms, frosts, extreme ice, cold damage) from local gazettes during historical times. As a result of this massive endeavor, a series of ‘dryness and wetness grades’ for 120 sub-regions across China were reconstructed, and a compendium “Yearly Charts of Dryness/Wetness in China for the Last 500-year Period” (CAMS, 1981; Zhang, 1988) was published. In the meantime, weather and climate related information recorded in Chinese classical documents (i.e., Jing, Shi, Zi, Ji in Chinese), the archives of the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) and the Republic of China (1912-1949), and historical private diaries were also consulted and data was extracted by researchers at the IOGCAS (Institute of Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences; see Zhang and Gong, 1980; Zhang, 1996). Based on these proxies (e.g., historical weather observations, climate descriptions, records of weather and/or climate-related natural disasters, the impacts of weather and climate anomalies, phenological and biological records), a clearmethodology for the study of climate change in historical times was developed (Gong et al.,1983). Several key characteristics of Chinese climate change during historical times were studied (Zhang, 1996).

Furthermore, technologies and methods for paleoclimatic reconstruction using available natural archives like tree rings, ice cores, lake sediments, stalagmites and corals were also developed and several laboratories were established. All of these activities led to a series of research works focused on natural, proxy-based, paleoclimatic reconstructions for China (Ye and Lin, 1995). High-resolution proxies, paleoclimatic reconstructions for individual sites (or small areas), and several composite temperature reconstructions for China (e.g., Wang et al., 2001; Yang et al., 2002; Ge et al., 2003; Wang et al., 2007) were also achieved; much of these data were indexed in the World Data Center (WDC) for Paleoclimatology Datasets (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/ datasets), and cited by a number of scientific reports (e.g., IPCC, 2001, 2007; NRC, 2006; EC-CNARCC, 2007) and numerous papers on Northern Hemisphere (NH) or global synthetic temperature reconstruc-tions for the last 2000 years (e.g., Mann and Jones, 2003; Moberg et al., 2005; Osborn and Briffa, 2006; Hegerl et al., 2007; Mann et al., 2008, 2009; Ljungqvist, 2010; Christiansen and Ljungqvist, 2011, 2012; PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013). Highlights of these research activities were summarized in review papers (e.g., Zhang and Crowley, 1989; Wang and Zhang, 1992; Bradley et al., 1993; Zhang et al., 1997, 1999; Jones and Mann, 2004; Ge et al., 2008a; Jones et al., 2009), books (e.g., Zhang, 1988; Ye and Chen, 1993; Ye and Lin, 1995; Qin et al., 1998), and in a special issue of PAGES News (Wang et al., 2005).

In addition to implementing a new phase of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Pro-gramme (IGBP) and other research programmes in Global Change over the last 10-15 years,China has also launched two new research themes: the National Key Basic Research Pro-gram on Global Change (http://www.most.gov.cn/tpxw/201007/t20100711_78372.htm); and the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences on Climate Change (Lu and Ding, 2012). Specially, several novel research projects have focused on cli-mate change in China over the last 2000 years (e.g., Climate Changes in China for the Past 2000 Years: Proxy Data, Variability, Cycle, Abrupt Change and Causes; Forcing and Impacts of the Warm Periods in the Past 2000 Years). Supported by these new research projects, alarge volume of high-resolution proxies, paleoclimatic reconstructions, and results have been achieved over the last 10 years. In this paper, we summarize the highlights of recent work.

2 High-resolution and multi-proxy temperature reconstructions

Over the last 10 years, a number of new, high-resolution, temperature reconstructions werereported for China. For example, daily records of snowfall derived from Yu-Xue-Fen-Cunrecords during the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) allowed reconstruction of an annualresolution series for winter temperatures since 1736 in eastern China, along the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (25°-34°N, 108°-123°E approximately) (Hao et al.,2012), and in southern China (south of ca. 25°N, 106°-120°E) (Ding et al., 2015). By usinghistorical records of the dates of first and last frosts extracted from Chinese local gazettes, atemperature series (5-year resolution) for winter half-years (October to the following April)on the North China Plain (ca. 34°-41°N, 105°-123°E) was also reconstructed (Yan et al.,2014). Using historical records of abnormal frost dates and snowfalls, as well as the descrip-tion on plant phenophase in the historical documents, winter half-year temperature series for central eastern China at 10-year (ca. 25°-40°N, east of 105°E) (for AD 220-580; Zheng et al., 2005a) and 20-year (for AD 601-920; Ge et al., 2010a) resolutions were also reconstructed. Winter half-year temperatures for central eastern China over the last 2000 years (first at 30- and then updated to 10-year resolution; Ge et al., 2003; 2013) were reconstructed from more than 1900 historical records of phenological cold/warm events. Moreover, Zhu et al. (2009) reconstructed a February-April temperature series for 1750-2002 in northeastern China based on the widths of tree-rings from Korean Pines in the Changbai Mountain area (42.0°-43.5°N, 127.5°-128.5°E), while Chu et al. (2011) presented an alkenone-based temperature reconstruction for the growing season over the last 1600 years using varved sediments from Lake Sihailongwan (42.3°N, 126.6°E).

In western China, tree ring-based temperature reconstructions with a duration of more than 300 years have now been conducted at many sites (Table S1 in Supporting Information for locations and references), especially in the Tianshan Mountains, in Xinjiang, and on the Tibetan Plateau. Some of these studies covered up to a millennium (e.g., Wang et al., 2014, 2015; Zhang et al., 2014; Liu et al., 2009; Zhu et al., 2008; Liu et al., 2005, 2007). Moreover, the δ18O temperature proxy (at a resolution of 10 years) was also derived from ice cores at the following Tibetan Plateau sites: Dunde (38.1°N, 96.4°E); Guliya (37.19°N, 80.68°E); Malan (35.83°N, 90.67°E); Puruogangri (33.92°N, 89.08°E); and Dasuopu (28.38°N, 85.72°E). In addition, a 1600-year-long (AD 350-2010) quantitative reconstruction for yearly summer temperature was inferred from varved sediments in Kusai Lake (35.6°-35.8°N, 92.6-93.3°E) on the northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (Liu et al., 2014). Using sediments from Lake Qinghai, Liu et al. (2006) presented an alkenone-based temperature reconstruction for 1500 BC to AD 2000 with a resolution of 30-100 years.

These new proxy-based temperature reconstructions provide improved spatial coverage for understanding uncertainties in regional reconstructions and, when synthesized together, enable a high-resolution temperature series for the whole of China over the last millennium. For example, taking 23 proxy-based temperature series from published papers, Ge et al. (2010b) assessed uncertainties in temperature reconstructions over the last 2000 years for five Chinese sub-regions. Based on 415 proxies (including 373 from tree rings mostly less than 1000 years old), Shi et al. (2012) built a preliminary temperature reconstruction for China over the last millennium using a modified point-by-point regression (PPR) approach. More specifically, by synthesizing high-confidence regional temperature signals from 28 proxies (with high quality reconstructions) from the whole of China, Ge et al. (2013) reconstructed a new 2000-year temperature series at a resolution of 10 years (Figure 1) using partial least squares (PLS) and principal component regression (PCR) analyses. Results of this study show that warm intervals over the last 2000 years were in AD 1-200, AD 551-760, AD 951-1320, and after AD 1921, while cold intervals were in AD 201-350, AD 441-530, AD 781-950, and AD 1321-1920. Interestingly, temperatures during AD 981-1100 and AD 1201-1270 were comparable to those of our Present Warm Period, but have an uncertainty of 0.28°-0.42°C at 95% confidence level. Temperature variations over the whole of China are typically in phase with those of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) after AD 1000, the period which covers the Medieval Climate Anomaly, the Little Ice Age (LIA), and the Present Warm Period. In contrast, a warm period found to occur in China during AD 541-740 was not as obvious as in the NH.

Figure 1 Locations and types of 28 temperature proxies (left panel), and temperature reconstructions for China (a in right panel; Ge et al., 2013) based on 28 temperature proxies with PLS (red lines) and PCR (blue lines) methods respectively at decadal (thin lines) and centennial timescales (solid lines; smoothed by a 5-point FFT filter), along with the 95% confidence level (shading). The reference value is the mean temperature from 1851 to 1950. The green line indicates the observed average air temperature. (b) Numbers of temperature proxies used.

Analysis of the rate of temperature change over the last 2000 years shows that, at a 100-year scale, the warming rate for the whole of China in the 20th century was only 0.6°C/100 a, while the peak warming rate for the period from the LIA to the 20th century reached 1.1°C /100 a, which was the greatest one in the past 500 years and probably over the last 2000 years. On a 30-year timescale, warming in the 20th century is quite notable, but the peak rate is still lower than those seen in previous periods, including rapid warming from the LIA to the 20th century and from AD 270s-290s to AD 300s-320s. The exact timing, duration and magnitude of these warming peaks vary from region to region at all scales, while the peak rates on a 100-year scale in AD 180-350 in northeastern China, in AD 260-410 and AD 500-660 in Tibet were all greater than those seen from the mid-19th to 20th centuries. It is also worth noting that the most rapid cooling rates (at scales of 30 to 100 years) in the LIA were high, but not unprecedented for the last 2000 years (Ge et al., 2011a).

3 Reconstructions of precipitation and rainfall variability

Among the many historical documents in China, Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun records are a unique direct source for quantitative precipitation reconstruction at high-resolution in the monsoonal region of China. These records contain measurements of both snow depth after each snowfall and infiltration depth after each rainfall in units of Fen (0.32 cm) and Cun (10 Fens = 3.2 cm), as well as records of rainy and snowy days and accurate descriptions of precipitation over given periods (e.g., one dekad, one month or one season; Ge et al., 2005). Based on these unique records, Zheng et al. (2005b) were able to reconstruct seasonal precipitation since 1736 at 17 stations along the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River as well as variations in the rainy season driven by the East Asian Summer Monsoon over the last 300 years. Ding et al. (2014) reconstructed a starting-date series for the pre-summer rainy season in South China (i.e., the first stage of the Asian summer monsoon rainband in China) while Ge et al. (2008b) reconstructed a time-series (including start and end dates) and precipitation amount for Meiyu (the second stage of the Asian summer monsoon rainband in China) in the middle-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Wang et al. (2008) and Ge et al. (2011b) reconstructed series of start and end dates for the rainy season on the North China Plain and on the northern edge of the monsoonal area (i.e., the last stage of the Asian summer monsoon rainband in China).

Based on descriptions of drought and flood-related disasters (i.e., events that had direct impacts on agriculture and society) extracted from Chinese historical documents, Zhang (1996) developed a dataset to describe a yearly drought/flood grade since 137 BC for 63 sites (Figure 2a) in eastern China. The grades in this dataset were classified using the ideal frequency criteria of 10% (grade 1, severe drought), 20% (grade 2, drought), 40% (grade 3, normal), 20% (grade 4, flood), and 10% (grade 5, heavy flood) for the whole area across this period, calibrated by considering the intensity, duration, and area of disasters and their impacts. However, these data are only partially available before 1470 as fewer historical documents survive from earlier times (Figure 2b), and, in addition, data for the grade of a drought or flood are unevenly distributed spatially (e.g., very few data are available on the grade of a drought or flood in China before AD 760 and even fewer data south of the Huaihe River at ca. 34°N before AD 300; Zhang, 1996). Nevertheless, by using this grade dataset, Zheng et al. (2006) were able to develop a method to define a long-term pattern in precipitation change (with a regional dry/wet index) and reconstructed a regional dry/wet index series for the North China Plain (ca. 34°-40°N, east of 105°E), the Jiang-Huai area (ca. 31°-34°N, east of 110°E), and the Jiang-Nan area (ca. 25°-31°N, east of 110°E) for the last 1500 years. The effect of missing data on the homogeneity of these reconstructions was detrended using a polynomial fit to changing trend in the number of records and, recently, these reconstructions (Figure 3) have been extended back to 2000 years (Zheng et al., 2014a). This series thus provides a unique proxy for studying long-term patterns and regional differences in rainfall over the monsoonal area of China (Shen et al., 2009).

Figure 2 Locations of 63 sites in the dataset of yearly drought/flood grade derived from Chinese historical documents starting from 137 BC (a) and percentage of available data for each drought/flood grade, excluding grade 3 (b)

Figure 3 Regional dry/wet index series for the North China Plain (a), Jiang-Huai area (b), Jiang-Nan area (c), and central eastern China (d) for the past 2000 years derived from yearly drought/flood grade dataset after detrending the effect of data missing on the homogeneity (Ge et al., 2014). The blue and red lines show the variations of regional dry/wet index at multi-decadal (40-75 years) and centennial (80-150 years) scale respectively, with the value of explained variance in brackets. Right panel: Results of spectral estimation for the regional dry/wet index series using the Multi-Taper Method.

Tree-ring is one of the important proxies for reconstructing precipitation and drought variability in western China, as this region has an arid to semi-arid climate. Over the last 10 years, around 30 reconstructions based on more than 130 tree ring chronologies (Table S2 in Supporting Information for locations and references) reported precipitation or drought indices (e.g., the Palmer drought severity index; the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) at yearly resolution. For the northeastern part of the Tibetan Plateau, eight reconstructions are available for the last 1000 years (e.g., Gou et al., 2015a; Wang et al., 2013; Zhang et al., 2011a; Shi et al., 2009; Liu et al., 2006; Shao et al., 2005, 2006; Zhang et al., 2003), of which, the longest two extend back more than 3000 years (Shao et al., 2010; Yang et al., 2014a). In addition, several high resolution (annual to decadal) proxy series for precipitation or Asian summer monsoon variability were derived from stalagmites (e.g., He et al., 2005; Hu et al., 2008; Cosford et al., 2008; Zhang et al., 2008; Tan et al., 2009; 2011; Cui et al., 2012; Zhao et al., 2015), and lake sediments (e.g., Bird et al., 2014; Liu et al., 2011). All of these proxy series dated back more than 1000 years.

The above reconstructions provided new proxies to study the characteristics on precipitation change in China over the past 2000 years. Results of multi-taper spectral analyses on reconstructions for the North China Plain, the Jiang-Huai area, and the Jiang-Nan area all show that there were decadal, multi-decadal and centennial oscillations in rainfall variability in the monsoonal region of China (Figure 3). Within this variation, a number of significant cycles were detected: 90-100a, 70-80a, 43-48a, 35a, 25-27a, and 17-18a on the North China Plain; 90-100a, 73-75a, 63-68a, 55a, 45a, 37a, and 26a in the Jiang-Huai area; and 85-100a, 75-77a, 58-65a, 37-39a, 31a and 26a in the Jiang-Nan area (Ge et al., 2014). Significant cycles with 70-80a and 20-30a were also found in precipitation reconstructions for the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow and Yangtze rivers (Hao et al, 2008, Ge et al., 2008b), although there was inconsistent phase for decadal, multi-decadal and centennial dry/wet variation on the North China Plain, and in the Jiang-Huai Jiang-Nan areas (Zheng et al., 2006; Hao et al., 2009; Shen et al., 2009).

Reconstruction of spatial patterns shows that there has been no fixed relationship in precipitation anomalies during either the five centennial-scale cold (AD 440-540, AD 780-920, AD 1390-1460, AD 1600-1700, and AD 1800-1900) or four warm (AD 650-750, AD 1000-1100, AD 1190-1290, and AD 1900-2000) periods in eastern China over the last 2000 years (Hao et al., 2016). Nevertheless, the ensemble mean of the drought/flood spatial pattern for all five cold periods does show an east-to-west distribution (Figure 4), with floods east of 115°E and droughts west of 115°E (with the exception of one flood between 110°E and 105°E). For most warm periods, droughts dominate north of the Yangtze River, while floods are more common to the south; the ensemble mean of the drought/flood spatial pattern for all four warm periods shows a tri-pole pattern with droughts south of 25°N, floods prevalent between 25°-30°N, and droughts north of 30°N (with the exception of one flood on the Loess Plateau; Zheng et al., 2014b). Results also show that the observed increase in frequency over the last two decades of a drought-in-the-north/flood-in-the-south spatial pattern in eastern China is unusual for the last five centuries (Shen et al., 2009).

Figure 4 Spatial patterns of droughts and floods in eastern China in cold and warm periods over a centennial scale (Hao et al., 2016). (a) Ensemble mean for all five cold periods (AD 440-540, 780-920, 1390-1460, 1600-1700, 1800-1900). (b) Ensemble mean for all four warm periods (AD 650-750, 1000-1100, 1190-1290, 1900-2000). (c) Difference between warm and cold periods (warm minus cold). The shaded area is the 90% significance level based on a chi-square test.

Chen et al. (2010) reviewed spatial and temporal patterns in effective moisture variation as revealed by different proxies from 17 records across arid Central Asia (a region extending from the Caspian Sea in the west to the modern Asian summer monsoon limit in the east, encompassing the Central Asian countries, northwestern China, and the southern Mongolian Plateau). The authors synthesized a reconstruction at a decadal resolution for moisture variation over the last 1000 years, using five of the 17 available records selected on the basis of reliable chronologies and robust proxies. The high- and low-resolution data recovered by this study all showed that, over the last 1000 years, the climate in arid Central Asia was characterized by a relatively dry period AD 1000-1350, a wet period AD 1500-1850, and tended to be moist in recent decades. Over the last 1000 years, multi-centennial moisture changes in arid Central Asia showed a generally inverse relationship with respect to temperature changes in the Northern Hemisphere, China, and in western Central Asia. This change in moisture history in arid Central Asia also showed an out-of-phase relationship with that seen in monsoonal Asia (Chen et al., 2010). While in the southeast of arid Central Asia, from the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to the western margins of the Qinling Mountains, reconstructions from both tree rings (Shao et al., 2010; Yang et al., 2014a) and stalagmites (Zhang et al., 2008) showed that there were centennial-scale oscillations in precipitation over the last 1000 years. These were interrupted by several multi-decadal severe drought events, including two prominent droughts in the 1480s and the 1710s (Shao et al., 2010; Yang et al., 2014a). A 3500-year tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (Figure 5) showed that moisture conditions over recent decades were the wettest recorded. Notable historical dry periods occurred in the 4th century and in the second half of the 15th century; the driest individual year (since 1500 BC) was 1048 BC, while the wettest was 2010. Precipitation variability on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau appeared not to be associated with inferred changes in the intensity of the Asian monsoon during recent millennia (Yang et al., 2014a).

Figure 5 Tree ring based reconstruction for annual precipitation on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (Yang et al., 2014a). (a) Annual precipitation from 1595 to 2011, together with total uncertainty (pale red), the part of this uncertainty that arises from chronology (pale blue), and the observed regional precipitation since 1957 (red). The horizontal dotted line indicates the mean precipitation over the calibration period (1957-2011). Note that the calibration residuals show that the estimated values somewhat exaggerate dryness in some dry years (e.g., 1978 and 1998), and this should be borne in mind when interpreting extremely dry years in the reconstruction. (b) As in (a), except that data are shown for the period since BC 1500 with 50a smoothing (smoothed values will be more uncertain near the end of the time series).

4 Extreme climate events reconstructions
4.1 Extremely cold winters and burning hot summers

Regional historical climate reconstructions may help us to place recently observed extreme climate events into the context of much longer timespans; by doing this, we can understand whether the recent climate is actually more extreme than it has been in the past, which is a current hot topic in China (Zheng et al., 2014c). For example, Zheng et al. (2012) defined extremely cold winter events as those that have a probability of occurrence lower than the 10th percentile of a probability density function, based on observed winter temperatures since 1951 in southern China. On this basis, they created a series of impact severity levels using documented evidence of events between 1951 and 2000, and evaluated three indexes for the freezing of rivers and lakes, widespread snow and ice storms, and cold damage to subtropical or tropical crops. Using these criteria, they identified 50 extremely cold winters for the period 1650–1949 based on 4000 pieces of comparable information extracted from local gazettes in southern China. Data were verified using data from three weather stations with long records and led to the conclusions that the most frequent extremely cold winter events occurred during AD 1650–1699 and in the first and second half of the 19th century, when frequencies were twice as high as in the second half of the 20th century. In contrast, frequencies of extremely cold winters during the 18th century were close to those seen in the second half of the 20th century. The high frequencies of extremely cold winters observed in AD 1650–1720 and AD 1795–1835 were likely due to the Maunder and Dalton Minimum. Indeed, the intensities of some historically cold events, such as those in the winters of 1654, 1670, 1690, 1861, 1892 and 1929, exceeded those of the coldest winters since 1951. Hao et al. (2011) identified historical analogues of the central and southern Chinese 2008 extreme snow event (ESE) from the chronology of extremely cold winters reconstructed over the last 500 years comparing geographical coverage with days of snowfall (greater than 15 days), snow/icing-cover (greater than 20 days), and total accumulated snow depth (greater than 30 cm for a single winter) and found that there were 25 annual ESEs over the past 500 years (Table 1) comparable to the winter of 2008 in snowfall days, snow cover/icing days, and snow depth. These ESEs, however, exhibited a variable spatial pattern and only those that occurred in the winters of 1578, 1620, 1796 and 1841 (probability of occurrence: once every 100 years) had comparable snowfall pattern to 2008. Comparisons between occurrences of ESEs and long-term temperature changes showed that ESEs analogous to that seen in 2008 all occurred in a relatively warm phase that was soon followed by a cooling phase (Hao et al., 2011).

Table 1 Historical extreme snowfall events (ESEs) comparable to 2008, including duration (period over which a high incidence of heavy snowfall occurred), days of snowfall, snow cover or icing, and snow depth (ranges given because of geographical variability between sites, “?” means no data available) (Hao et al., 2011).

Zhang and Gaston (2004) reported 19 extreme burning hot summers in the last 1000 years by surveying weather and related impact records from “A Compendium of Chinese Meteorological Records of the Last 3000 years” (Zhang, 2004). Summers were defined as burning hot if high temperatures were recorded in more than three provinces; results showed that the northern China heat wave in summer 1743 was the greatest in intensity, injuries, area of coverage and duration. During this event, the daily maximum temperature reached 44.4°C in Beijing in July 1743, as observed by Father Gaubil using a Réaumur-scale thermometer (Table 1), which passed the highest records (June and July of 1942, July of 1999) observed in the 20th century. It is implicated that the intensity of regional heat wave occurred in the context of recent global warming may not exceed the natural climate variability during the historical times.

4.2 Extreme drought and flood

Based on a yearly dataset of drought and flood grades for 63 sites (Figure 2a) across eastern China since 137 BC and the regional dry/wet index series (Figure 3), Hao et al. (2010a) reconstructed the chronology of extreme drought and flood events on the North China Plain, in the Jiang-Huai and Jiang-Nan areas, and in central eastern China over the last 2000 years. Although these events can be identified by drought/flood grade criteria, hit-area and regional

dry/wet index, this is equivalent to the occurrence probabilities of drought/flood and within the 10th percentile of a probability density function, as derived from instrumental precipitation observations in China since 1951. Results show that there were 227 extreme droughts and 190 extreme floods in the period 137 BC to AD 2000 on the North China Plain and that six extreme droughts and four extreme floods occurred between 1951 and 2000. Although data is missing for yearly drought/flood grades in the Jiang-Huai and Jiang-Nan areas before AD 1470, it is clear that there were 142 extreme droughts and 174 extreme floods between AD 10 and 2000 in the Jiang-Huai area. Of these, five extreme droughts and six extreme floods occurred within the period 1951-2000. In the Jiang-Nan area, 127 extreme droughts and 159 extreme floods occurred between AD 100 and 2000 and, of these, four extreme droughts and five extreme floods occurred between 1951 and 2000. In central eastern China, there were 209 extreme droughts and 195 extreme floods (including 23 coincident extreme drought and flood events) between AD 100 and 2000, of which four extreme droughts, four extreme floods, and one coincident event occurred between 1951 and 2000. Observed changes in the occurrences of extreme events (Figure 6) show that in the eastern monsoonal region of China, extreme droughts were more frequent in the periods AD 301-400, AD 751-800, AD 1051-1150, AD 1501-1550, and AD 1601-1650. In this region, extreme floods were more frequent in the periods AD 101-150, AD 251-300, AD 951-1000, AD 1701-1750, AD 1801-1850, and AD 1901-1950, while during 1551-1600, coexisting extreme drought and extreme flood events occurred most frequently.

Table 2 Temperature observations for each day in Beijing at 15:30 pm between the 20th and 26th of July 1743 by Father Gaubil using a Réaumur-scale thermometer (°R), their equivalents in Celsius (°C), and comparisons with the highest records from the 20th century (Zhang and Gaston, 2004).

Figure 6 Changes in the frequency of extreme drought and flood events for each 50-year period in eastern China over the last 2000 years (Hao et al., 2010a). Red line: extreme drought; blue line: extreme flood; black line: coexisting drought and flood; grey bar: total of extreme drought and flood events. The cross bars below each plate indicate confidence levels of results for every 50 years, which marked with different levels of A (full confidence), B (very high confidence), C (high confidence), D (medium confidence), and E (low confidence), and the periods with scarce data were marked with blank.

Based on a dataset of dryness and wetness grades for 120 Chinese sub-regions (CAMS, 1981; extended by Zhang et al., 2003) and by considering intensity, duration, and spatial coverage, Shen et al. (2007) investigated the exceptional drought events (i.e., extended over a prolonged period; affecting an extended area) that were seen in eastern China in the last five centuries. In this study, they identified three exceptional drought events, 1586-1589, 1638-1641, and 1965-1966. These were the most severe droughts of the last five centuries seen in eastern China; more than 40% of the region was affected while the drought center experienced a significant reduction in summer rainfall (ca. 50% or more). These three extreme droughts all developed first in the north of China (34°-40°N), and then either expanded southwards or moved down the Yangtze River valley (27°-34°N) to northern part of the southeastern coastal area (22°-27°N). In 1965-1966, a significant reduction in summer precipitation was caused by a weakening of the summer monsoon and an anomalous westward and northward displacement of the western Pacific subtropical high. Indeed, all three of these exceptional drought events may be triggered by large volcanic eruptions and amplified both by volcanic activities and El Niño events. Hao et al. (2010b) also investigated the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of the prolonged severe drought of 1876-1878, using a seasonal precipitation reconstruction from 17 stations within the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River recorded in Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun records since 1736. Results of this study indicate that this prolonged severe drought started in the spring of 1876 and did not stop until the spring of 1878, which was the most severe and extreme drought in northern China in the last 300 years. Indeed, within the three-year drought period, harvest failures raised the price of rice 5-10 times higher than in a normal year and population of the five provinces of northern China decreased by more than 20 million because of death and migration. Subsequent related investigations suggested that this 1876-1878 drought could be linked to abnormally high sea surface temperatures (SST) in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, a strong El Niño episode, and positive Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) anomalies.

Based on a network of tree-ring chronologies, Cook et al. (2010) presented the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), a seasonally resolved gridded spatial reconstruction of Asian monsoon droughts and pluvials over the last 1000 years. Their results show that megadroughts, such as those that occurred in the periods 1638-1641 in China, 1756-1768 in southern Asia, 1790 and 1792-1796 in East India, and 1876-1878 in North China and southern Asia, are closely linked to large-scale anomalous patterns of tropical Indo-Pacific SSTs. However, it is also worth noting that comparisons between the MADA and a dataset of dryness/wetness grade for 120 sub-regions of China derived from historical documents (CAMS, 1981) indicate that atlas data alone cannot effectively represent dryness and wetness in eastern China, probably because of the lack of tree-ring proxy records in this region for the MADA (Yang et al., 2013).

In the arid and semi-arid zones of northwestern China, lots of case studies identified periods of extreme drought in individual area based on tree-ring-based precipitation or PDSI reconstructions. For example, Li et al. (2006) investigated the occurrence of extreme drought events using tree-ring-based April-June PDSI reconstruction for the period 1675-2002 in the central Tianshan area (ca. 40°-45°N, 83°-93°E) of Xinjiang (the northwest frontier). They found evidence for just one extreme drought year (1690) between 1675 and 1699 and no extreme droughts in the period 1700-1799. However, more frequent extreme drought years were seen in the period 1800-1950 (e.g., 1823, 1843, 1885, 1895, 1900, 1910, 1916-1919 and 1943-1945) and a clear trend in increasing moisture intensity was seen in the second half of the 20th century. Zhang et al. (2011b) identified severe and extreme droughts between 1700 and 2005 over the whole Qilian Mountains area (36°-40°N, 93°-103°E approximately) using a tree-ring network of 12 chronologies. They also found that severe and extreme drought events became more frequent during the 20th century; one multi-year event recorded during the late 1920s to the early 1930s was the longest within the period 1700-2005. In contrast to this work, Gou et al. (2015b) presented an 850-year (AD 1161-2010) reconstruction for May-July self-calibrating PDSI in the western Qilian Mountains (37.5°-40.0°N, 95°-100°E) based on two almost 1000 years Qilian Juniper ring-width chronologies (ca. 39.7°N, 98.8°E) and the result showed that the most extreme drought years were 1261, 1258, 1495, 1323, 1198, 1505, 1693, 1290, 1962, 1714, 1342, 1660 and 1721 (in order of intensity). Gou et al. (2015b) also provided evidence for three prolonged periods of drought encompassing more frequent, severe and extreme drought years (the periods AD 1260s-1340s, 1430s-1540s, and 1640s-1740s) that coincided with periods of Wolf, Spörer and Maunder Minimum. Liu et al. (2013) also identified an extreme drought year in the east of the Qilian Mountains using a tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction for Mount Xinglong (35.6°-36°N, 103.8°-104.2°E) since AD 1679. The longest dry interval in this region was the period 1811-1870, while the most severe drought period was 1924-1929. There were six extreme drought years in this region in the 18th and 19th centuries and six droughts between 1901 and 1950.

Based on a 2850-year (from 843 BC onwards) tree-ring width composite chronology using archaeological wood samples from 13 sites and living tree samples from seven sites, Shao et al. (2010) reported that over the last 2000 years, there were extreme drought periods in decades of the 360s, 490s, 690s, 1150s, 1290s, 1480s, and 1710s on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (ca. 36°-39°N, 96°-100°E). Yang et al. (2014b) also investigated drought variability on the northern fringes of the Asian summer monsoonal region (ca. 34°-43°N, 95°-112°E, the region including the Qilian Mountains, the Hexi Corridor and the Great Bend of the Yellow River) using tree rings, historical documents and instrument data. Their results show that variations in droughts were roughly consistent over the study area on decadal-to-centennial timescales and that dry periods with more frequent extreme drought events since AD 1450 were in 1480-1499, 1575-1590, 1625-1644, 1710-1729, 1875-1878 and 1922-1931. In addition, tree-ring based PDSI reconstruction for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (ca. 27°-30°N, 97°-100°E) between 1440 and 2007 shows that the extreme drought years were in 1444, 1447, 1452, 1454,1455, 1456, 1466, 1502, 1552, 1567, 1576, 1684, 1736, 1823, 1897, 1943, and 2001 and that extremely dry decades were in the periods 1440s-1460s, 1560s-1580s, 1700s, 1770s, 1810s, 1860s and 1980s (Fang et al., 2010).

In the southwestern part of China, extreme drought events seem to be occurring more frequently since 2006 and include the most extreme example on record, the period between late-spring and summer 2006 around Chongqing and Sichuan, as well as the most extreme prolonged example (August 2009 to June 2010). Indeed, successive severe drought events between spring 2009 and 2013 (Qin, 2015) in this region of China have promoted a number of studies on their long-term effects. For example, Hao et al. (2007) investigated the history of severe droughts in Chongqing and the surrounding area over the last 1000 years using data derived from historical documents (i.e., duration, impact intensity, and hit-area) and found that events equivalent to the extreme drought of 2006 in fact occurred several times before the 21st century (e.g., in 1939, 1877, 1811, 1649, and 1648). Moreover, a tree-ring based PDSI reconstruction for spring in the period between 1650-2011 showed that extreme drought events also occurred in 1736-1737, 1758, 1762, 1766, 1768-1769, 1819, 1969, and 2008 in Lijiang, Yunnan Province (Bi et al., 2015). A winter (October to January) PDSI reconstruction derived using tree-ring data from Gaoligong Mountain (in northwestern Yunnan Province) for the period 1795-2004 showed that extreme drought years in this region were in 1813, 1816, 1822, 1861, 1864-1865, 1907, 1909, 1980, 1987, and 1995-1996 (Li et al., 2011). In addition, a tree-ring based PDSI reconstruction for spring in the central Hengduan Mountains (the area linking the southwest of China to the Tibetan Plateau) showed that extreme drought events within the period 1655-2005 also occurred in 1670, 1706, 1735-1736, 1757, 1766, 1772, 1792, 1800, 1820, 1870, 1887, 1897, 1987, and in 1999 (Fan et al., 2008). These results suggest that, at least in the southwest of China, the extreme droughts of the 21st century are not more intense than those seen in historical times.

5 Conclusions and prospects for further studies

In this article, we have reviewed advances in the reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China over the last 2000 years with emphasis on high-resolution proxies, paleoclimatic reconstructions, and results on the general characteristics of climate changes from decadal to centennial scales. The main conclusions can be summarized as follows:

(1) Over the last 10 years, many new climate reconstructions have been reported for China, including annual and decadal resolution series for temperature and precipitation for eastern China derived from historical documents. In western China, reconstructions were derived from tree-ring and other natural archives. The new reconstructions that are available provide more proxies and better spatial coverage to allow us to understand the characteristics of climate change in China as well as uncertainties at regional scales. We are now able to reconstruct high-resolution temperature series and spatial patterns of precipitation for the whole of China over past millennia by synthesizing available multi-proxies.

(2) An updated 2000-year-long temperature reconstruction for the whole of China, derived by synthesizing high confidence regional temperature signals from 28 proxies, shows that warm intervals occurred in the periods AD 1-200, AD 551-760, AD 951-1320, and after 1921, while cold intervals were in AD 201-350, AD 441-530, AD 781-950, and 1321-1920. Moreover, the rate of temperature change over the last 2000 years shows that, on a 100-year timescale, the warming rate for the whole of China in the 20th century was only 0.6°C/100 a, while the peak warming rate for the period from the LIA to the 20th century reached 1.1°C/100 a, which was the greatest rate of change in the last 500 years and probably the last 2000 years.

(3) In the eastern monsoonal region of China, significant cycles of variation in precipitation were 90-100a, 70-80a, 43-48a, 35a, 25-27a, and 17-18a on the North China Plain; 90-100a, 73-75a, 63-68a, 55a, 45a, 37a, and 26a in the Jiang-Huai area; and 85-100a, 75-77a, 58-65a, 37-39a, 31a and 26a in the Jiang-Nan area. While the spatial pattern of drought-to-flood for the ensemble mean of all cold periods showed an east-to-west distribution pattern, for all warm periods there was a tri-pole pattern with drought to the south of 25°N, floods in the region 25°-30°N, and droughts north of 30°N. While the arid and semi-arid zones of northwest China were relatively dry in the period between AD 1000 and 1350, they were wet between AD 1500 and 1850, and tended to be moist in recent decades. In the area between the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the western margins of the Qinling Mountains (i.e., the linking area between the monsoonal climate in the east, the continental arid climate in the northwest, and the highland cold climate on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau), there was evidence for centennial-scale oscillations in precipitation over the last 1000 years, interrupted by several multi-decadal severe drought events, in particular two extreme examples in the 1480s and 1710s.

(4) Extremely cold winters that occurred in China within the period 1500-1900 were more frequent than that after 1950. Indeed, intensity of regional heat waves experienced recently in the context of global warming may not exceed natural climatic variability seen during historical times. In eastern China, extreme drought events were more frequent in the periods between 301-400, 751-800, 1051-1150, 1501-1550, and 1601-1650, while extreme flooding events were more frequent in the periods between 101-150, 251-300, 951-1000, 1701-1750, 1801-1850, and 1901-1950. Between 1551 and 1600, extreme drought and flood events occurred together most frequently. Examples of exceptional droughts, such as those that occurred in eastern China within the periods 1586-1589, 1638-1641, 1876-1878, and 1965-1966, may be triggered by large volcanic eruptions and amplified both by volcanic activities and El Niño events.

(5) Years of extreme drought, reconstructed from tree rings and other proxies at most sites or small areas in western China, thought to occur frequently before 1900, may in fact be comparable to the most extreme example recorded by instrument data since 1950. Although extreme drought events seem to be more frequent since 2006, events that were just as severe as occurred in the early 21st century, may not have been passed those droughts recorded before 1900.

The achievements reviewed in this paper also provide a number of opportunities and challenges for further study in this field. In particular, more works are needed on the following issues:

(1) To understand the level of accuracy for proxy presenting climate, to reconstruct climate at accurate temporal and spatial resolutions, and to quantify the nature of uncertainties in these reconstructions. This is an issue because most proxies are correlated not only to temperature and precipitation but also to the co-linear of many other climatic parameters. Different proxies may capture variability well at different temporal and spatial scales and in different seasons.

(2) To develop strategies for compiling published (or soon to be published) proxy records of sub-annual to multi-decadal-resolution and their associated metadata derived from different paleoclimate archives. To develop better statistical approaches and skills for the synthesis and assimilation of multi-proxies for spatially gridded explicit reconstructions of homogeneous long-term temperature and precipitation. The aims are to understand changes in spatial patterns from inter-annual to centennial scales and to provide comparable datasets for paleoclimate models.

(3) To achieve a better understanding of past regional climatic and environmental dynamics through comparisons of reconstructions and model simulations, with a focus on the modes of climate variability in the past at inter-annual to centennial scales and teleconnections, and rapid and extreme climate events at the regional scale as well as the linkages between regional- and global-scale changes (e.g., global-scale abrupt and gradual Earth System changes and their underlying processes), their response to changes in forcings, internal feedbacks and teleconnections.

(4) To address long-term interactions between past climatic conditions, ecological processes and human activities over the last 2000 years via comparisons of regional-scale reconstructions of environmental and climatic processes and evidence of past human activities obtained from historical, paleoecological and archaeological records. These data will enable an improved understanding of the impacts of extreme events, abrupt and gradual changes on human activities, the roles of different natural and anthropogenic drivers in forcing environmental change, the feedbacks between human activity and the natural system, as well as the skills, ways and strategies for humans to adapt to extreme events, abrupt and gradual changes in past regional climate and the earth system.

Supplement Table 1 Recent studies on temperature reconstruction more than 300 years derived from tree-ring
Supplement Table 2 Recent studies on precipitation reconstructions more than 300 years by tree-ring

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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[18] Ge Quansheng, Guo Xifeng, Zheng Jingyunet al., 2008b. Meiyu in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River since 1736.Chinese Science Bulletin, 53(1): 107-114.
"Yu Xue Fen Cun" records during the Qing Dynasty are used to identify the starting and ending dates of Meiyu at the period of 1736―1911. These results, along with the instrumental meteorological records, are used to reconstruct the series of length and precipitation of Meiyu during 1736―2000 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The characteristics of Meiyu are analyzed since 1736. Moreover, the strength of East Asian Summer Monsoon and locations of rainband are discussed, based on the relationship between the length of Meiyu and the Index of East Asian Summer Monsoon. It is found that the starting and ending dates and the length of Meiyu have significant interannual and in-terdecadal variations. Apart from 7―8 years, 20―30 years and 40 years cycles for the lengths of Meiyu, the centennial oscillation is also presented. The length of Meiyu, monsoon rainband movement over eastern China, and the strength of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) have a very good correlation, which can be expressed in the following: during the periods of 1736―1770, 1821―1870 and 1921―1970, the EASM was stronger, and the monsoon rainband was located in North China and South China easily, corresponding to the decreased length of Meiyu. Whereas during the periods of 1771―1820, 1871―1920 and 1971―2000, the EASM was weaker and monsoon rainband usually stopped at the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, corresponding to the increased length of Meiyu.
DOI:10.1007/s11434-007-0440-5      [Cited within:1]
[19] Ge Quansheng, Hao Zhixin, Tian Yanyuet al., 2011b. The rainy season in the northwestern part of the East Asian summer monsoon in the 18th and 19th centuries.Quaternary International, 229(1): 16-23.
lower reaches; yangtze-river; yellow-river; china; index; reconstruction; precipitation; temperature; circulation; rainfall
DOI:10.1016/j.quaint.2010.02.025      [Cited within:1]
[20] Ge Quansheng, Hao Zhixin, Zheng Jingyunet al., 2013. Temperature changes over the past 2000 yr in China and comparison with the Northern Hemisphere.Climate of the Past, 9(3): 1153-1160.
We use principal component regression and partial least squares regression to separately reconstruct a composite series of temperature variations in China, and associated uncertainties, at a decadal resolution over the past 2000 yr. The reconstruction is developed using proxy temperature data with relatively high confidence levels from five regions across China, and using a temperature series from observations by the Chinese Meteorological Administration, covering the period from 1871 to 2000. Relative to the 1851-1950 climatology, our two reconstructions show four warm intervals during AD 1 AD 200, AD 551 AD 760, AD 951 AD 1320, and after AD 1921, and four cold intervals during AD 201 AD 350, AD 441 AD 530, AD 781 AD 950, and AD 1321 AD 1920. The temperatures during AD 981 AD 1100 and AD 1201 AD 1270 are comparable to those of the Present Warm Period, but have an uncertainty of +0.28 C to 0.42 C at the 95 % confidence interval. Temperature variations over China are typically in phase with those of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) after 1000, a period which covers the Medieval Climate Anomaly, the Little Ice Age, and the Present Warm Period. In contrast, a warm period in China during AD 541 AD 740 is not obviously seen in the NH.
DOI:10.5194/cp-9-1153-2013      [Cited within:1]
[21] Ge Quansheng, Liu Haolong, Zheng Jingyunet al., 2010a. Reconstructing temperature change in Central East China during 601-920 AD.Chinese Science Bulletin, 55(34): 3944-3949.
Using historical records on first and last frost and snow,spring cultivation,David peach blossom,autumn crop harvest,grade of sea freeze and change in northern citrus boundary,we reconstructed temperature change during 601-920 AD.The mean temperature of the winter half-year(October to April)over Central East China during this period was about-0.22°C higher than that of the present(1961-2000 AD mean).During 601-820 AD,mean temperature was about-0.52°C higher than the present.During 821-920 AD,the mean temperature was 0.42°C lower than the present.The temperature fluctuations were characterized by a maximum amplitude of 1.05°C at the centennial scale,1.38°C at the 50-year scale,2.02°C at the 30-year scale,and 2.3°C at the 20-year scale.There were four peaks warmer than today(601-620 AD,mean of 1°C higher temperature;641-660 AD,1.44°C;701-720 AD,0.88°C;781-800 AD,0.65°C).Three cold periods were in 741-760,821-840,and 881-900 AD,the mean temperature of which was 0.37-0.87°C lower than the present.
DOI:10.1007/s11434-010-4179-z      [Cited within:3]
[22] Ge Quansheng, Zhang Xuezhen, Hao Zhixinet al., 2011a. Rates of temperature change in China during the past 2000 years.Science China Earth Sciences, 54(11): 1627-1634.
DOI:10.1007/s11430-011-4257-3      [Cited within:1]
[23] Ge Quansheng, Zheng Jingyun, Fang Xiuqiet al., 2003. Winter half-year temperature reconstruction for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River, China, during the past 2000 years.The Holocene, 13(6): 933-940.
[Cited within:0]
[24] Ge Quansheng, Zheng Jingyun, Hao Zhixinet al., 2005. Reconstruction of historical climate in China: High- resolution precipitation data from Qing Dynasty Archives.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86(5): 671-679.
Abstract Chinese historical documents that contain descriptions of weather conditions can be used for studying climate of the past hundreds or even thousands of years. In this study, the progress of reconstructing a 273-station quantitative precipitation dataset for 1736–1911—a period when records of the depth of rain infiltration (into the ground) and snow depth (above the surface) were kept in the Yu–Xue–Fen–Cun (which is part of memos routinely sent to the emperors during the Qing Dynasty) is reported. To facilitate the rainfall reconstruction, a field program of 29 sites covering different climate regimes and soil characteristics was designed for the purpose of establishing the transfer function between the rain infiltration depth and rainfall amount, while the relation between the snow depth and snowfall is obtained using instrumental measurements of recent decades. The results of the first site at Shijiazhuang (near Beijing) are reported here. The reconstruction shows that the summer and winter precipitation during 1736–1911 were generally greater than their respective 1961–90 means. Two years with extreme summer precipitation are identified—112 mm in 1792 and 1167 mm in 1801; the latter is larger than the 998 mm in 1996, which has been the most severe one of recent decades. The long-term high-resolution quantitative data can be used to study climate variability as well as to evaluate historical climate model simulations.
DOI:10.1175/BAMS-86-5-671      [Cited within:2]
[25] Ge Quansheng, Zheng Jingyun, Hao Zhixinet al., 2010b. Temperature variation through 2000 years in China: An uncertainty analysis of reconstruction and regional difference.Geophysical Research Letters, 37(3): L03703.
Twenty-three published proxy temperature series over China spanning the last 2000 years were selected for an uncertainty analysis in five climate regions. Results indicated that, although large uncertainties are found for the period prior to the 16th century, high level of consistency were identified in all regions during the recent 500-years, highlighted by the two cold periods 1620s-1710s and 1800s-1860s, and the warming during the 20th century. The latter started in Tibet, Northwest and Northeast, and migrated to Central East and Southeast. The analysis also indicates that the warming during the 10-14th centuries in some regions might be comparable in magnitude to the warming of the last few decades of the 20th century which was unprecedented within the past 500 years. Citation: Ge, Q.-S., J.-Y. Zheng, Z.-X. Hao, X.-M. Shao, W.-C. Wang, and J. Luterbacher (2010), Temperature variation through 2000 years in China: An uncertainty analysis of reconstruction and regional difference, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L03703, doi: 10.1029/2009GL041281.
DOI:10.1029/2009GL041281      [Cited within:0]
[26] Ge Quansheng, Zheng Jingyun, Hao Zhixinet al., 2014. State-of-the-arts in the study of climate changes over China for the past 2000 years.Acta Geographica Sinica, 69(9): 1248-1258. (in Chinese)
We reviewed the state-of-the-arts of climate change research in China over the past 2000 years and summarized the achievements during recent 10 years; the research works perspectives of this field were discussed as well. The overview mainly focuses on the development of proxy data, reconstructions of temperature and precipitation (wetness/dryness) changes for the past 2000 years, and recognition on the cold/warm periods, modeling simulation and diagnosis of climate changes for the last millennium, as well as the new findings on impacts of climate change on society in historical times. It is found that spatial coverage of proxy data increased largely and that quantifications of climate proxy indicator interpretation and impacts of climate change on society were improved. The understanding of the decadal to centennial climate change and its possible driving forces and impacts were improved. These achievements provide a solid scientific basis for revealing the rhythms of past changes in earth system, in particular for a better understanding of the spatial and temporal characteristics of climate change in China and dynamics of regional climate change.
DOI:10.11821/dlxb201409001      [Cited within:0]
[27] Ge Quansheng, Zheng Jingyun, Tian Yanyuet al., 2008a. Coherence of climatic reconstruction from historical documents in China by different studies.International Journal of Climatology, 28(8): 1007-1024.
Not Available
DOI:10.1002/joc.1552      [Cited within:1]
[28] Gong Gaofa, Zhang Piyuan, Wu Xiangdinget al., 1983. The Research Methods of Climate Changes during Historical Times. Beijing: Science Press. (in Chinese)
[Cited within:0]
[29] Gou Xiaohua, Deng Yang, Gao Linlinet al., 2015a. Millennium tree-ring reconstruction of drought variability in the eastern Qilian Mountains, Northwest China.Climate Dynamics, 45(7): 1761-1770.
Knowledge of natural long-term drought variability is essential for water resource management and planning, especially in arid and sub-arid regions of the world. In the eastern Qilian Mountains of China, long-term drought variability based on high-resolution proxy records such as tree-ring data are still scarce to date. Here we present a new tree-ring chronology from the eastern Qilian Mountains which provides a valuable 1,002-year record (1009-2010 CE) of drought variability. The new reconstruction of June-July 5-month scale standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index is the first millennium tree-ring estimate of past climate developed in the eastern Qilian Mountains. The record shows that this region has experienced several persistent droughts and pluvials over the past millennium, with significantly drier climate during the fifteenth century and dramatic wetting since the nineteenth century. The low frequency generally agrees with other nearby studies based on both tree-ring data and other proxy data.
DOI:10.1007/s00382-014-2431-y      [Cited within:1]
[30] Gou Xiaohua, Gao Linlin, Deng Yanget al., 2015b. An 850-year tree-ring-based reconstruction of drought history in the western Qilian Mountains of northwestern China.International Journal of Climatology, 35(11): 3308-3319.
[Cited within:1]
[31] Hao Zhixin, Ge Quansheng, Zheng Jingyunet al., 2007. 2006 extreme drought event of Chongqing.Geographical Research, 26(4): 828-834. (in Chinese)
Drought is one of the most damaging climate-related hazards to impact societies.Although drought is a naturally occurring phenomenon throughout most parts of the world,its effects have tremendous consequences to the physical,economic,social,and political elements of our environment.The typical severe drought of Chongqing at the last 100 years occurred in 2006,which was characterized by the most serious drought rarely seen in history in terms of long duration,high temperature intensity,water resource scarcity in combating drought,extensive disaster-affected areas and heavy losses.Here the climate background of severe drought was analyzed,and the comparison and assessment was made with the drought events which occurred in history,using the recorded historical documents in the last 1000 years.The analysis on the historical drought records in Chongqing for the past 1000 years showed that the "extreme drought" event in 2006 has occurred several times in Chongqing and its surrounding areas in historical periods,and was not the only one of many.The extreme climate event was not beyond the normal climatic fluctuation in the duration,impact and spatial coverage of this drought.The severe drought event occurred in Chongqing in 2006 reminds us that the global warming might lead to the significant increase in the frequency of the extreme warm event,and the similar disasters may occur usually.So the extreme event and its adverse effect in the context of climate warming is one of the scientific key issues,hence it is necessary to pay more attention to that in the future.
DOI:10.1002/jrs.1570      [Cited within:0]
[32] Hao Zhixin, Zheng Jingyun, Ge Qaunshenget al., 2011. Historical analogues of the 2008 extreme snow event over Central and Southern China.Climate Research, 50(2): 161-170.
DOI:10.3354/cr01052      [Cited within:1]
[33] Hao Zhixin, Zheng Jingyun, Ge Quanshenget al., 2012. Winter temperature variations over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River since 1736 AD.Climate of the Past, 8(3): 1023-1030.
ABSTRACT We present statistically reconstructed mean annual winter (December-February) temperatures from the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (24° N-34° N, 108° E-123° E within mainland China) extending back to 1736. The reconstructions are based on information regarding snowfall days from historical documents of the Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun archive recorded during the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911). This information is calibrated with regional winter temperature series spanning the period from 1951 to 2007. The gap from 1912 to 1950 is filled using early instrumental observations. With the reference period of 1951-2007, the 18th century was 0.76 °C colder, and the 19th century was 1.18 °C colder. However, since the 20th century, the climate has been in a warming phase, particularly in the last 30 yr, and the mean temperature from 1981 to 2007 was 0.25 °C higher than that of the reference period of 1951-2007, representing the highest temperatures of the past 300 yr. Uncertainty existed for the period prior to 1900, and possible causes of this uncertainty, such as physical processes involved in the interaction between temperature and snowfall days and changing of observers, are discussed herein.
DOI:10.5194/cp-8-1023-2012      [Cited within:1]
[34] Hao Zhixin, Zheng Jingyun, Ge Quansheng, 2008. Precipitation cycles in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River (1736-2000).Journal of Geographical Sciences, 18(1): 17-25.
<a name="Abs1"></a>Based on the long-term precipitation series with annual time resolution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and its four sub-regions during 1736&#8211;2000 reconstructed from the rainfall and snowfall archives of the Qing Dynasty, the precipitation cycles are analyzed by wavelet analysis and the possible climate forcings, which drive the precipitation changes, are explored. The results show that: the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River has inter-annual and inter-decadal oscillations like 2&#8211;4a, quasi-22a and 70&#8211;80a. The 2&#8211;4a cycle is linked with El Ni?o events, and the precipitation is lower than normal year in the occurrence of the El Ni?o year or the next year; for the quasi-22a and the 70&#8211;80a cycles, Wolf Sun Spot Numbers and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) coincide with the two cycle signals. However, on a 70&#8211;80a time scale, the coincidence between solar activity and precipitation is identified before 1830, and strong (weak) solar activity is generally correlated to the dry (wet) periods; after 1830, the solar activity changes to 80&#8211;100a quasi-century long oscillation, and the adjusting action to the precipitation is be-coming weaker and weaker; the coincidence between PDO and precipitation is shown in the whole time series. Moreover, in recent 100 years, PDO is becoming a pace-maker of the precipitation on the 70&#8211;80a time scale.
DOI:10.1007/s11442-008-0017-5      [Cited within:0]
[35] Hao Zhixin, Zheng Jingyun, Ge Quansheng, 2009. Variations in the summer monsoon rainbands across eastern China over the past 300 years.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 26(4): 614-620.
<a name="Abs1"></a>Based on reconstructions of precipitation events from the rain and snowfall archives of the Qing Dynasty (1736&#8211;1911), the drought/flood index data mainly derived from Chinese local gazettes from 1736&#8211;2000, and the observational data gathered since 1951, the spatial patterns of monsoon rainbands are analyzed at different time scales. Findings indicate that monsoon rainfall in northern China and the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River have significant inter-annual (e.g., 5&#8211;7-yr and 2&#8211;4-yr) as well as inter-decadal (e.g., 20&#8211;30-yr and quasi-10-yr) fluctuation signals. The spatial patterns in these areas also show significant cycles, such as on a 60&#8211;80-yr time scale, a reversal phase predominates the entire period from 1736&#8211;2000; on a quasi-30-yr time scale, a consistent phase was prevalent from 1736 to 2000; and on a 20-yr time scale, the summer monsoon rains show different spatial patterns before and after 1870.
DOI:10.1007/s00376-009-8011-0      [Cited within:0]
[36] Hao Zhixin, Zheng Jingyun, Ge Quansheng.2010a. Variations of extreme drought/flood events over eastern China during the past 2000 years.Climatic and Environmental Research, 15(4): 388-394. (in Chinese)
Based on the annual drought/flood grades derived from the historical archives since the Han Dynasty as well as the reconstructed wet/dry index series over eastern China,extreme drought/flood events in the three regions of North China plain (34N°-40°N),Jianghuai (31°N-34°N),and Jiangnan (25°N-31°N) during the past 2000 years were identified. The results indicated that high frequent and extreme drought/flood events occurred during 100-150,550-650,1050-1100,and 1850-1900 in North China plain,250-450 and 1600-1850 in Jianghuai,350-400,1100-1200,and 1900-1950 in Jiangnan. Meanwhile,over the whole eastern China,high frequent extreme events occurred during 100-150,250-350,750-850,950-1000,1050-1150,1400-1450,1550-1650,and 1800-1950. The frequency and intensity of extreme drought/flood events in the second half of the 20th century were close to the mean level of the past 2000 years. In addition,the comparison between the drought/flood events and temperature series over eastern China suggested that global warming over recent decades did not bring more frequent extreme events.
DOI:10.1109/ICIME.2010.5478118      [Cited within:3]
[37] Hao Zhixin, Zheng Jingyun, Wu Guofenget al., 2010b. 1876-1878 severe drought in North China: Facts, impacts and climatic background.Chinese Science Bulletin, 55(26): 3001-3007.
Based on the reconstructed precipitation series in North China from historical documents, the 1876–1878 drought was identified as the most severe and extreme one in North China over the past 300 years. Meanwhile, the spatial patterns of seasonal and annual precipitation during 1876–1877 were analyzed and the social and economic impacts related with this drought event were evaluated according to the descriptions in the historical documents. The results indicated that this long-lasting drought started by the spring of 1876 and did not stop until the spring of 1878. Within the three years, the harvest failures brought the rice price increased to 5–10 times than that in the normal year, and the total population in the five provinces over North China decreased by more than 20 million due to a large number of dead people and migrations. In addition, related investigations suggested that the 1876–1878 drought was prevalent worldwide, which has possible link with abnormal high SST in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, strong El Ni o episode and positive AAO anomalies.
DOI:10.1007/s11434-010-3243-z      [Cited within:1]
[38] Hao Zhixin, Zheng Jingyun, Zhang Xuezhenet al., 2016. Spatial patterns of precipitation anomalies in eastern China during centennial cold and warm periods of the past 2000 years.International Journal of Climatology, 36(1): 467-475.
Not Available
DOI:10.1002/joc.4367      [Cited within:0]
[39] He Yaoqi, Wang Yongjin, Kong Xinggonget al., 2005. High resolution stalagmite δ18O records over the past 1000 years from Dongge Cave in Guizhou.Chinese Science Bulletin, 50(10): 1003-1008.
O record with the C record from tree rings largely reflects impact of centennial-scale solar activity on the monsoon climate changes. The conspicuous decrease in the O value at AD 1720 indicates an abrupt increase in monsoon rainfall, sug- gesting that an atmos-pheric-oceanic couple over the tropical Indian Ocean plays an important role in rapid increase of the Northern Hemi-sphere temperature over the last century.
DOI:10.1360/04wd0268      [Cited within:1]
[40] Hegerl G C, Crowley T J, Allen Met al., 2007. Detection of human influence on a new, validated 1500-year temperature reconstruction.Journal of Climate, 20(4): 650-666.
[Cited within:0]
[41] Hu Chaoyong, Henderson G M, Huang Junhuaet al., 2008. Quantification of Holocene Asian monsoon rainfall from spatially separated cave records.Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 266(3): 221-232.
A reconstruction of Holocene rainfall is presented for southwest China — an area prone to drought and flooding due to variability in the East Asian monsoon. The reconstruction is derived by comparing a new high-resolution stalagmite δ 18 O record with an existing record from the same moisture transport pathway. The new record is from Heshang Cave (30°27′N, 110°25′E; 294m) and shows no sign of kinetic or evaporative effects so can be reliably interpreted as a record of local rainfall composition and temperature. Heshang lies 600km downwind from Dongge Cave which has a published high-resolution δ 18 O record (Wang, Y.J., Cheng, H., Edwards, R.L., He, Y.Q., Kong, X.G., An, Z.S., Wu, J.Y., Kelly, M.J., Dykoski, C.A., Li, X.D., 2005. The Holocene Asian monsoon: links to solar changes and North Atlantic climate. Science 308, 854–857). By differencing co-eval δ 18 O values for the two caves, secondary controls on δ 18 O (e.g. moisture source, moisture transport, non-local rainfall, temperature) are circumvented and the resulting Δ δ 18 O signal is controlled directly by the amount of rain falling between the two sites. This is confirmed by comparison with rainfall data from the instrumental record, which also allows a calibration of the Δ δ 18 O proxy. The calibrated Δ δ 18 O record provides a quantitative history of rainfall in southwest China which demonstrates that rainfall was 8% higher than today during the Holocene climatic optimum (≈026ka), but only 3% higher during the early Holocene. Significant multi-centennial variability also occurred, with notable dry periods at 8.2ka, 4.8–4.1ka, 3.7–3.1ka, 1.4–1.0ka and during the Little Ice Age. This Holocene rainfall record provides a good target with which to test climate models. The approach used here, of combining stalagmite records from more than one location, will also allow quantification of rainfall patterns for past times in other regions.
DOI:10.1016/j.epsl.2007.10.015      [Cited within:0]
[42] IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press.
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[43] IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press.
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[44] Jones P D, Briffa K R, Osborn T Jet al., 2009. High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the last millennium: A review of current status and future prospects.The Holocene, 19(1): 3-49.
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[45] Jones P D, Mann M E, 2004. Climate over past millennia. Reviews of Geophysics, 42(2): RG2002.
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[46] Li Jinbao, Gou Xiaohua, Cook E Ret al., 2006. Tree-ring based drought reconstruction for the central Tien Shan area in Northwest China.Geophysical Research Letters, 33(7): L07715.
A robust ring-width chronology developed from two sites of Picea schrenkiana in the central Tien Shan area of northwest China was employed to study regional drought variability. Our analyses demonstrate both temperature and precipitation have significant effects on tree growth, thus both should be considered for climate reconstruction. Regional drought history (1675-2002 A.D.) was therefore reconstructed by calibrating with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Our reconstruction not only captured well those extreme drought events recorded in local historical archives, but also revealed the long-term pattern of drought variability, especially the trend of increasing moisture during the 20th century. Multi-taper method spectral analysis indicates the existence of some low- and high-frequency cycles (146-171, 11.5, 10.6, 9.7, 6.1, 3.9, 3.4, 3.2, 2.4 and 2.1 yr). Overall, our study indicates the feasibility of combining tree-rings and the PDSI to reconstruct large-scale drought patterns over this area. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
DOI:10.1029/2006GL025803      [Cited within:1]
[47] Li Zongshan, Shi Chunming, Liu Yongboet al., 2011. Winter drought variations based on tree-ring data in Gaoligong Mountain, northwestern Yunnan, China, AD 1795-2004.Pakistan Journal of Botany, 43(5): 2469-2478.
We developed two tree ring-width chronologies of coniferous species (Tsuga dumosa (D. Don) Eichler and Abies georgei Orr) in Gaoligong Mountain, northwestern Yunnan, China. Although the two chronologies come from different species, significant correlation existed between the two chronologies (r - 0.528, p<0.01), and the first principal component (PC1) accounted for 75% of total variance over their common period A. D. 1795-2005. Using the PC1 of tree-ring chronologies, the winter (prior October to current January) PDSI for the research area was reconstructed for the past 210 years (r = 0.617, p<0.01). Wet winters occurred during A. D. 1827-1861, 1880-1896 and 1922-1961, while dry winters were prevailed in A. D. 1795-1826, 1862-1879, 1897-1921 and 1962 to present. Long-term decadal drought variations of this reconstruction fitted quite close with the variations retained in drought sensitive tree-ring series of the nearby regions, and this demonstrated the new record was confidently reliable and could capture large-scale climate signals.
[Cited within:1]
[48] Liu Jianbao, Chen FaHu, Chen Jianhuiet al., 2011. Humid Medieval Warm Period recorded by magnetic characteristics of sediments from Gonghai Lake, Shanxi, North China.Chinese Science Bulletin, 56(23): 2464-2474.
DOI:10.1007/s11434-011-4592-y      [Cited within:2]
[49] Liu Xiaohong, Qin Dahe, Shao Xuemeiet al., 2005. Temperature variations recovered from tree-rings in the middle Qilian Mountain over the last millennium.Science in China Series D Earth Sciences, 48(4): 521-529.
Based on the cross-dated tree-ring samples collected from the middle Qilian Mountain, a standard ring-width chronology had been developed, which covered the period AD 1000 to 2000. The correlations between the chronology and climatic records from the nearby meteorological stations indicated that temperature was the dominant climatic factor for tree growth at upper timberline, and the most important climatic factor for the tree growth in the area was the mean temperature from previous December to current April. The temperature variations recovered from the ring-width data showed a cold period during the "Little Ice Age" and the continuous warming during the twentieth century. Comparison between the ring-width chronology and 未18O records from the Dunde ice core in the Qilian Mountain indicated that there was a consistent trend in both time series. A significant correlation existed between our ring-width chronology and the Northern Hemispheric temperature, suggesting that the climate changes in the Qilian Mountain were not only driven by regional factors, but also responsive to the global climate.
DOI:10.1360/03yd0063      [Cited within:1]
[50] Liu Xiaohong, Shao Xuemei, Zhao Liangjuet al., 2007. Dendroclimatic temperature record derived from tree ring width and stable carbon isotope chronologies in the middle Qilian Mountains, China. Arctic, Antarctic,and Alpine Research, 39, 651-657.
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[51] Liu Xingqi, Yu Zhitong, Dong Hailianget al., 2014. A less or more dusty future in the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau? Scientific Reports, 2014, 4: No. 6672. doi: 10.1038/srep06672.
Dust plays an important role in climate changes as it can alter atmospheric circulation, and global biogeochemical and hydrologic cycling. Many studies have investigated the relationship between dust and temperature in an attempt to predict whether global warming in coming decades to centuries can result in a less or more dusty future. However, dust and temperature changes have rarely been simultaneously reconstructed in the same record. Here we present a 1600-yr-long quantitative record of temperature and dust activity inferred simultaneously from varved Kusai Lake sediments in the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, NW China. At decadal time scale, our temperature reconstructions are generally in agreement with tree-ring records from Karakorum of Pakistan, and temperature reconstructions of China and North Hemisphere based on compilations of proxy records. A less or more dusty future depends on temperature variations in the Northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, i.e. weak and strong dust activities at centennial time scales are well correlated with low and high June-July-August temperature (average JJA temperature), respectively. This correlation means that stronger summer and winter monsoon should occur at the same times in the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.
DOI:10.1038/srep06672      PMID:25335792      [Cited within:0]
[52] Liu Yu, An Zhisheng, Linderholm HWet al., 2009. Annual temperatures during the last 2485 years in the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau inferred from tree rings. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 52(3): 348-359.
By combining living trees and archaeological wood, the annual mean temperatures were reconstructed based on ring-width indices of the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau for the past 2485 years. The climate variations revealed by the reconstruction indicate that there were four periods to have average tem- peratures similar to or even higher than that mean of 1970 to 2000 AD. A particularly notable rapid shift from cold to warm, we call it the "Eastern Jin Event", occurred from 348 AD to 413 AD. Calculation re- sults show that the temperature variations over the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau are not only repre- sentative for large parts of north-central China, but also closely correspond to those of the entire Northern Hemisphere over long time scales. During the last 2485 years, the downfall of most major dynasties in China coincides with intervals of low temperature. Compared with the temperature records in other regions of China during the last 1000 years, this reconstruction from the Tibetan Plateau shows a significant warming trend after the 1950s.
DOI:10.1007/s11430-009-0025-z      [Cited within:0]
[53] Liu Yu, An Zhisheng, Ma Haizhouet al., 2006. Precipitation variation in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau recorded by the tree rings since 850 AD and its relevance to the Northern Hemisphere temperature.Science in China Series D Earth Sciences, 49(4): 408-420.
[Cited within:1]
[54] Liu Yu, Sun Bo, Song Huiminget al., 2013. Tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction for Mt. Xinglong, China, since AD 1679.Quaternary International, 283: 46-54.
Not Available
DOI:10.1016/j.quaint.2012.03.045      [Cited within:0]
[55] Liu Zhonghui, Henderson ACG, Huang Yongsong, 2006. Alkenone-based reconstruction of late-Holocene surface temperature and salinity changes in Lake Qinghai, China.Geophysical Research Letters, 33(9): L09707.
Few proxies can provide quantitative reconstructions of past continental climatic and hydrological changes. Here, we report the first alkenone-based reconstruction of late Holocene temperature and salinity changes in Lake Qinghai, China. The alkenone-temperature proxy (U37 k′) indicates up to a 1°C change in mean annual air temperature or a 2°C change in summer lake water temperature during the late Holocene. Oscillating warm and cold periods could be related to the 20th century warm period, the Little Ice Age, the Medieval Warm Period, the Dark Ages Cold Period, and the Roman Warm Period. The relative importance of C37:4 alkenone to total C37 alkenone production (%C37:4) fluctuated between 15-45%, with higher values during warm periods, suggesting that lake water was also fresher during these periods. The coupled late Holocene surface temperature and salinity changes suggest that Asian monsoons strongly influenced the climate of the Lake Qinghai region. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.
DOI:10.1029/2006GL026947      [Cited within:0]
[56] Ljungqvist F C, 2010. A new reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere during the last two millennia.Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 92(3): 339-351.
ABSTRACT. A new temperature reconstruction with decadal resolution, covering the last two millennia, is presented for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (90–30°N), utilizing many palaeo-temperature proxy records never previously included in any large-scale temperature reconstruction. The amplitude of the reconstructed temperature variability on centennial time-scales exceeds 0.6°C. This reconstruction is the first to show a distinct Roman Warm Period c .ad1–300, reaching up to the 1961–1990 mean temperature level, followed by the Dark Age Cold Period c .ad300–800. The Medieval Warm Period is seen c .ad800–1300 and the Little Ice Age is clearly visible c .ad1300–1900, followed by a rapid temperature increase in the twentieth century. The highest average temperatures in the reconstruction are encountered in the mid to late tenth century and the lowest in the late seventeenth century. Decadal mean temperatures seem to have reached or exceeded the 1961–1990 mean temperature level during substantial parts of the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period. The temperature of the last two decades, however, is possibly higher than during any previous time in the past two millennia, although this is only seen in the instrumental temperature data and not in the multi-proxy reconstruction itself. Our temperature reconstruction agrees well with the reconstructions by Moberg et al . (2005) and Mann et al . (2008) with regard to the amplitude of the variability as well as the timing of warm and cold periods, except for the period c .ad300–800, despite significant differences in both data coverage and methodology.
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0459.2010.00399.x      [Cited within:0]
[57] Lu Daren, Ding Zhongli, 2012. Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues.Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 27(3): 395-402. (in Chinese)
The program aims to address the key scientific issues urgently needed in China's participance in the international negotiation on climate change and the reduction of net green house gases(GHGs) emissions,and the selection of the optimal route of the national sustainable development.Under the framework of the program,cross-cutting multi-disciplinary research of Chinese Academy of Sciences,related universities and institutes of ministries will be launched to investigate major questions including accurate estimation of national anthropogenic GHGs emissions,quantitative verification of terrestrial carbon budget,the carbon sequestration rate and potential of increment of carbon sink,techniques and technology of increment in China,and uncertainties regarding relationship of future global warming scenarios and concentration of GHGs.Based on the research results of the program,the data resources system,scientific knowledge system and technical support system will be built to provide consultation for decision-makers to address climate change,in particular,on the issues of GHGs reduction,increment of carbon sink,and national sustainable development strategy.The program will promote the whole research capability of China on methodology and technology of verification of GHGs emission,quantitative assessment and verification of terrestrial carbon budget,ecosystem and climate change research,techniques and methods of ecosystem carbon sink increment,and policy of regional carbon budget management,etc,and therefore will make breakthrough in China's science and technology capacity of addressing climate change,and raise China's international profile and voice in the diplomacy.The program will also build a team of solid research foundation and will be adapt to major multi-disciplinary cross-cutting research.The program will strive to answer the following key science questions:(1)What is total amount of greenhouse gas emission in China?(2)What is the potential carbon sequestration rate and potential increment of carbon sink of regional terrestrial ecosystem?(3)How shall we address MRV(Measurable,Reportable,Verifiable) requirement in greenhouse abatement?(4)How do we understand the sensitivity of global warming to atmospheric CO2 concentration?(5)How do we understand the effect of global warming on ecosystem and environment change?(6)What is "green" development strategy and policy in response to climate change? Objectives of the program are:(1)To establish independent carbon emission measurement system in energy,cement and other industries,and quantitatively assess greenhouse gas emission caused by land use;(2)To establish independent atmospheric carbon concentration and carbon sink/source monitoring system which incorporates satellite remote sensing,airborne monitoring,surface network monitoring and atmospheric general circulation modeling,and build land observation network to study terrestrial carbon budget;(3)To synthetically study and quantitatively assess the carbon sequestration rate and potential increment of carbon sink of various ecosystem in China,evaluate the sink contribution of major ecosystem projects in China,study the mechanism and technical system of intervened carbon sink increment,and establish prototype system of carbon sink increment;(4)To develop a more integrated new generation climate system model,quantitatively project greenhouse gas concentration corresponding to future global warming scale,understand the relationship between anthropogenic aerosols and climate change,and reduce uncertainties in the relationship;(5)To analyze the facts of climate change in the past century,millennium,and ten thousand years time scale,to study natural climate variability in the past ten thousand years and adaptability of human being,and to enhance the understanding of natural climate change process and its attribution;(6)To analyze mechanism of international carbon trade market and its possible influence on China,to propose to establish carbon trade market in China,to develop technology and economic policy of carbon abatement and carbon sink increment in forestry,agriculture and animal husbandry,and to provide consultation to policy making of domestic and inter-industry eco-compensation and carbon management system.
[Cited within:0]
[58] Mann M E, Jones P D, 2003. Global surface temperatures over the past two millennia. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(15): ID 1820.
[1] We present reconstructions of Northern and Southern Hemisphere mean surface temperature over the past two millennia based on high-resolution ‘proxy’ temperature data which retain millennial-scale variability. These reconstructions indicate that late 20th century warmth is unprecedented for at least roughly the past two millennia for the Northern Hemisphere. Conclusions for the Southern Hemisphere and global mean temperature are limited by the sparseness of available proxy data in the Southern Hemisphere at present.
DOI:10.1029/2003GL017814      [Cited within:0]
[59] Mann M E, Zhang Z H, Hughes M Ket al., 2008. Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(36): 13252-13257.
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[60] Mann M E, Zhang Z H, Rutherford Set al., 2009. Global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly.Science, 326(5957): 1256-1260.
Global temperatures are known to have varied over the past 1500 years, but the spatial patterns have remained poorly defined. We used a global climate proxy network to reconstruct surface temperature patterns over this interval. The Medieval period is found to display warmth that matches or exceeds that of the past decade in some regions, but which falls well below recent levels globally. This period is marked by a tendency for La Ni a-like conditions in the tropical Pacific. The coldest temperatures of the Little Ice Age are observed over the interval 1400 to 1700 C.E., with greatest cooling over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents. The patterns of temperature change imply dynamical responses of climate to natural radiative forcing changes involving El Ni o and the North Atlantic Oscillation-Arctic Oscillation.
DOI:10.1126/science.1177303      PMID:19965474      [Cited within:0]
[61] Moberg A, Sonechkin D M, Holmgren Ket al., 2005. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data.Nature, 433(7026): 779-787.
A number of reconstructions of millennial-scale climate variability have been carried out in order to understand patterns of natural climate variability, on decade to century timescales, and the role of anthropogenic forcing. These reconstructions have mainly used tree-ring data and other data sets of annual to decadal resolution. Lake and ocean sediments have a lower time resolution, but provide climate information at multicentennial timescales that may not be captured by tree-ring data. Here we reconstruct Northern Hemisphere temperatures for the past 2,000 years by combining low-resolution proxies with tree-ring data, using a wavelet transform technique to achieve timescale-dependent processing of the data. Our reconstruction shows larger multicentennial variability than most previous multi-proxy reconstructions, but agrees well with temperatures reconstructed from borehole measurements and with temperatures obtained with a general circulation model. According to our reconstruction, high temperatures--similar to those observed in the twentieth century before 1990--occurred around ad 1000 to 1100, and minimum temperatures that are about 0.7 K below the average of 1961-90 occurred around ad 1600. This large natural variability in the past suggests an important role of natural multicentennial variability that is likely to continue.
DOI:10.1038/nature03265      PMID:15703742      [Cited within:0]
[62] National Research Council, 2006. Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2000 Years. Washington DC: The National Academies Press.
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[63] Osborn T J, Briffa K R, 2006. The spatial extent of 20th-century warmth in the context of the past 1200 years.Science, 311(5762): 841-844.
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[64] PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013. Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia.Nature Geoscience, 6: 339-346.
Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructions show generally cold conditions between ad 1580 and 1880, punctuated in some regions by warm decades during the eighteenth century. The transition to these colder conditions occurred earlier in the Arctic, Europe and Asia than in North America or the Southern Hemisphere regions. Recent warming reversed the long-term cooling; during the period ad 1971鈥2000, the area-weighted average reconstructed temperature was higher than any other time in nearly 1,400 years.
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[65] PAGES, 2009. Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. IGBP Report No.57. Stockholm: IGBP Secretariat.
The IGAC Science Plan and Implementation Strategy lays out the scientific objectives and key research issues of the atmospheric chemistry project of the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) as both IGAC and IGBP enter their second phase. It also lays out a framework for addressing these objectives and issues, recognizing the need for collaboration with partner programmes and projects. The scientific focus of this document emerged from the first decade of IGAC research, much of which was conducted in the context of focused, intensive measurement campaigns. The scope of IGAC in its next phase includes both regional characterisation and the extension into issues that cross more expansive boundaries in space, time and discipline. While local and regional-scale atmospheric chemical composition will be a primary focus, it is now clear that issues such as intercontinental transport and transformation of chemically active species and the interactions between atmospheric chemistry and climate must also be addressed in order to better understand atmospheric chemical composition and to provide guidance to the public and policy-making community.
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[66] Qin Dahe, 2015. China National Assessment Report on Risk Management and Adaptation of Climate Extremes and Disasters. Beijing: Science Press. (in Chinese)
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[68] Shao Xuemei, Huang Lei, Liu Hongbinet al., 2005. Reconstruction of precipitation variation from tree rings in recent 1000 years in Delingha, Qinghai.Science in China Ser. D Earth Sciences, 48(7): 939-949.
Using seven well-replicated Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) ring-width chronologies developed at Zongwulong and Shalike Mts. in the northeastern part of the Qaidam Basin annual precipitation from previous July to current June in the recent 1000 years was reconstructed for Delingha. The reconstruction can capture 63.1% of precipitation variance and the equation was stable over time. For the reconstructed precipitation, wet periods occurred in AD1520--1633 and 1933--2001, whereas dry intervals in 1429--1519 and 1634--1741. In addition, the magnitude in precipitation variation was lower before 1430 with about 15 mm, but it increased to 30 mm during the period of 1430 to 1850. After 1850, the precipitation variance decreased again. In contrast to the increase in temperature, a decrease in annual precipitation was evident since the 1990s. The agreement in low-frequency variation between the reconstruction and the glacier accumulation and particulate content in Dunde ice cores during the recent several hundred years suggested that the precipitation reconstructed in this study was rather reliable,and represented a regional signal. This 1000-year reconstruction could benefit our understanding of climatic variation in decadal to century-scale in this region, and provide basic data to climate models and to prediction of future climate in the 21 st century.
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[69] Shao Xuemei, Liang Eryuan, Huang Leiet al., 2006. A reconstructed precipitation series over the past millennium in the northeastern Qaidam Basin.Advances in Climate Change Research, 2(3): 122-126. (in Chinese)
DOI:      [Cited within:0]
[70] Shao Xuemei, Xu Yan, Yin Zhiyonget al., 2010. Climatic implications of a 3585-year tree-ring width chronology from the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.Quaternary Science Reviews, 29(17): 2111-2122.
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[71] Shen Caiming, Wang Wei-Chyung, Hao Zhixinet al., 2007. Exceptional drought events over eastern China during the last five centuries.Climatic Change, 85(3/4): 453-471.
Climate extremes, particularly the droughts sustaining over a prolonged period and affecting extended area (defined as “exceptional drought events”), can have long-lasting effects on economic and soci
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[72] Shen Caiming, Wang Wei-Chyung, Peng Youbinget al., 2009. Variability of summer precipitation over eastern China during the last millennium.Climate of the Past, 5(2): 129-141.
decadal climate variability; land-cover change; north pacific; interdecadal variations; past millennium; asian monsoon; system model; rainfall; oscillation; circulation
DOI:10.5194/cpd-4-611-2008      [Cited within:1]
[73] Shi Feng, Yang Bao, Von Gunten L, 2012. Preliminary multiproxy surface air temperature field reconstruction for China over the past millennium.Science China Earth Sciences, 55(12): 2058-2067.
We present the first millennial-length gridded field reconstruction of annual temperature for China, and analyze the reconstruction for spatiotemporal changes and associated uncertainties, based on a network of 415 well-distributed and accurately dated climatic proxy series. The new reconstruction method is a modified form of the point-by-point regression (PPR) approach. The main difference is the incorporation of the “composite plus scale” (CPS) and “Regularized errors-in-variables” (EIV) algorithms to allow for the assimilation of various types of the proxy data. Furthermore, the search radius is restricted to a grid size; this restriction helps effectively exclude proxy data possibly correlated with temperature but belonging to a different climate region. The results indicate that: 1) the past temperature record in China is spatially heterogenic, with variable correlations between cells in time; 2) the late 20th century warming in China probably exceeds mean temperature levels at any period of the past 1000 years, but the temperature anomalies of some grids in eastern China during the Medieval climate anomaly period are warmer than during the modern warming; 3) the climatic variability in the eastern and western regions of China was not synchronous during much of the last millennium, probably due to the influence of the Tibetan Plateau. Our temperature reconstruction may serve as a reference to test simulation results over the past millennium, and help to finely analyze the spatial characteristics and the driving mechanism of the past temperature variability. However, the lower reconstruction skill scores for some grid points underline that the present set of available proxy data series is not yet sufficient to accurately reconstruct the heterogeneous climate of China in all regions, and that there is the need for more highly resolved temperature proxies, particularly in the Tibetan Plateau.
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[74] Shi Xinghe, Qin Ningsheng, Shao Xuemeiet al., 2009. Precipitation change over the past 1000 years recorded in Sabina Tibetica Tree Rings in Lake Qinghai Basin.Journal of Lake Sciences, 21(4): 579-586. (in Chinese)
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[75] Tan Liangcheng, Cai Yanjun, An Zhishenget al., 2011. Centennial- to decadal-scale monsoon precipitation variability in the semi-humid region, northern China during the last 1860 years: Records from stalagmites in Huangye Cave.The Holocene, 21(2): 287-296.
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[76] Tan Liangcheng, Cai Yanjun, Cheng Haiet al., 2009. Summer monsoon precipitation variations in central China over the past 750 years derived from a high-resolution absolute-dated stalagmite.Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 280(3): 432-439.
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[77] Wang Jianglin, Yang Bao, Ljungqvist F C, 2015. A millennial summer temperature reconstruction for the eastern Tibetan Plateau from tree ring width.Journal of Climate, 28(13): 5289-5304.
Although tree-ring-width-based temperature reconstructions of centennial-to-millennial length have previously been published for many parts of the eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP), a millennium-long regional-scale composite reconstruction with annual resolution has so far been lacking. Here, the authors present a reconstruction of June ugust (JJA) temperature variability over the ETP for the period AD 1000-2005 using a nested composite-plus-scale (CPS) approach to 12 temperature-sensitive tree-ring width chronologies, including 946 individual tree-ring width series. The composite reconstruction reveals warm episodes occurring during much of the sixteenth, nineteenth, and twentieth centuries and cold episodes during much of the eleventh, seventeenth, and eighteenth centuries. The period AD 1996-2005 is likely the warmest decade in the context of the past millennium. The authors explore the influence of possible forcings, finding only a weak direct relationship of temperature changes over the ETP with solar forcing at multidecadal time scales but a robust in-phase relationship with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) during the past millennium. This suggests that the AMO may play an important role in controlling summer temperature variability over the ETP at multidecadal time scales. A comparison with temperature reconstructions from the higher latitudes of East Asia, central-eastern China, and the whole of the Northern Hemisphere shows that the cold eleventh century and the warm nineteenth century prevailing over ETP are somewhat unique, suggesting regional specific characteristics of the temperature variability in this region. This result highlights the need to further increase the number of millennium-long, high-resolution temperature records from East Asia.
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[78] Wang Jianglin, Yang Bao, Qin Chunet al., 2014. Tree-ring inferred annual mean temperature variations on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the last millennium and their relationships with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.Climate Dynamics, 43(3): 627-640.
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[79] Wang Pinxian, Chai Yucheng, Guo Zhengtanget al., 2005. Chinese paleoscience. PAGES News, 13(2): 2-23.
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[80] Wang P K, Zhang De’er, 1992. Recent studies of the reconstruction of East Asian monsoon climate in the past using historical documents of China.Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 70(1B): 423-446.
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[81] Wang Shaowu, Gong Daoyi, Zhu Jinhong, 2001. Twentieth-century climatic warming in China in the context of the Holocene.The Holocene, 11(3): 313-321.
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[82] Wang Shaowu, Wen Xinyu, Luo Yonget al., 2007. Reconstruction of temperature series of China for the last 1000 years.Chinese Science Bulletin, 52(23): 3272-3280.
This paper reports a study on reconstructing temperature series for ten regions of China over the last 1000 years with a time resolution of 10 a. The regions concerned are: Northeast, North, East, South China, Taiwan, Central, Southwest, Northwest China, Xinjiang and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A variety of proxy data, such as ice core, tree-rings, stalagmites, peat, lake sediments, pollen and historical records, were validated with instrumental observations made in the last 120 years, and applied in the reconstruction of the temperature series. A temperature series for whole China is then established by averaging the ten regional series with a weighting proportional to the area of each region. Finally, temperature variations for the last 1000 years are examined, with special focus placed on the characteristics of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA), and Modern Warming (MW).
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[83] Wang Wei-Chyung, Ge Quansheng, Hao Zhixinet al., 2008. Rainy season at Beijing and Shanghai since 1736.Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 86(5): 827-834.
The rainy season is an important climate feature over Eastern China where anomaly in either its timing or length can lead to adverse economic and social consequences. Here, we illustrate that the records of daily precipitation description at Beijing and Shanghai contained in Memos-to-Emperor during the Qing Dynasty provide a unique source to extend the rainy season information to 1736. The information together with the instrument measurements since 1875 in both cities reveals significant inter-annual and decadal variations of the beginning and ending dates, and length of the rainy season. The analysis further reveals that, on the decadal time scale, the length of the rainy season increased in Shanghai since 1961 with more frequent extreme rainfall events, but decreased in Beijing since 1975 with persistent dry conditions. This pattern of changes was not seen in any other periods of the data, in particular during 1736-1820 when both cities showed an increase in the length of the rainy season.
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[84] Wang Wenzhi, Liu Xiaohong, Xu Guobaoet al., 2013. Moisture variations over the past millennium characterized by Qaidam Basin tree-ring δ18O.Chinese Science Bulletin, 58(32): 3956-3961.
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[85] Yan Junhui, Ge Quansheng, Liu Haolonget al., 2014. Reconstruction of sub-decadal winter half-year temperature during 1651-2010 for the North China Plain using records of frost date.Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 4(2): 211-218.
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Three alternate China-wide temperature composites covering the last 2000 years were established by combining multiple paleoclimate proxy records obtained from ice cores, tree rings, lake sediments and...
DOI:10.1029/2001GL014485      [Cited within:0]
[87] Yang Bao, Kang Shuyuan, Ljungqvist F Cet al., 2014b. Drought variability at the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region over the past millennia.Climate Dynamics, 43(3): 845-859.
The northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region (NASM) in China refers to the most northwestern extent of the Asian summer monsoon. Understanding the characteristics and underlying mechanisms of drought variability at long and short time-scales in the NASM region is of great importance, because present and future water shortages are of great concern. Here, we used newly developed and existing tree-ring, historical documentary and instrumental data available for the region to identify spatial and temporal patterns, and possible mechanisms of drought variability, over the past two millennia. We found that drought variations were roughly consistent in the western (the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor) and eastern (the Great Bend of the Yellow River, referred to as GBYR) parts of the NASM on decadal to centennial timescales. We also identified the spatial extent of typical multi-decadal GBYR drought events based on historical dryness/wetness data and the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas. It was found that the two periods of drought, in AD 1625-1644 and 1975-1999, exhibited similar patterns: specifically, a wet west and a dry east in the NASM. Spatial characteristics of wetness and dryness were also broadly similar over these two periods, such that when drought occurred in the Karakoram Mountains, western Tianshan Mountains, the Pamirs, Mongolia, most of East Asia, the eastern Himalayas and Southeast Asia, a wet climate dominated in most parts of the Indian subcontinent. We suggest that the warm temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific might have been mainly responsible for the recent 1975-1999 drought. Possible causes of the drought of 1625-1644 were the combined effects of the weakened Asian summer monsoon and an associated southward shift of the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone. These changes occurred due to a combination of Tibetan Plateau cooling together with more general Northern Hemisphere cooling, rather than being solely due to changes in the sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific. Our results provide a benchmark for comparing and validating paleo-simulations from general circulation model of the variability of the Asian summer monsoon at decadal to centennial timescales.
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[88] Yang Bao, Qin Chun, Wang Jianglinet al., 2014a. A 3,500-year tree-ring record of annual precipitation on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(8): 2903-2908.
An annually resolved and absolutely dated ring-width chronology spanning 4,500 y has been constructed using subfossil, archaeological, and living-tree juniper samples from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The chronology represents changing mean annual precipitation and is most reliable after 1500 B.C. Reconstructed precipitation for this period displays a trend toward more moist conditions: the last 10-, 25-, and 50-y periods all appear to be the wettest in at least three and a half millennia. Notable historical dry periods occurred in the 4th century BCE and in the second half of the 15th century CE. The driest individual year reconstructed (since 1500 B.C.) is 1048 B.C., whereas the wettest is 2010. Precipitation variability in this region appears not to be associated with inferred changes in Asian monsoon intensity during recent millennia. The chronology displays a statistical association with the multidecadal and longer-term variability of reconstructed mean Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the last two millennia. This suggests that any further large-scale warming might be associated with even greater moisture supply in this region.
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[89] Yang Fengmei, Shi Feng, Kang Shuyuanet al., 2013. Comparison of the dryness/wetness index in China with the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas.Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 114(3/4): 553-566.
It is not clear how the frequency and amplitude of droughts have varied over the past 500 years in China, as the instrumental record is too short to identify centennial-scale trends. While the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) provides some insights into past drought patterns, its accuracy in eastern China remains uncertain. A comparison of the MADA and Chinese historical documents indicates that the MADA alone cannot effectively represent dryness and wetness in eastern China, so it is not appropriate to use the MADA in this region.
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The principal results of studies on historical climate change from A.D. 1000 to the present in China are reviewed. The studies are based on analysis of local annals and court records. After discussing the methodology of transferring descriptive accounts into quantitative estimates of past climates, we summarize the main results, which are generally substantiated by multiple lines of evidence: 1) There were significant historical climate fluctuations in China, with a range of about 1.0°-1.5°C in recent centuries. 2) Significant decadal-scale warm fluctuations occurred during a cool interval broadly correlative with the Little Ice Age. 3) There was an increased frequency of both droughts and floods in some pans of China during the Little Ice Age. Increased frequencies of dust storms accompanied the dry phases of the cool periods. 4) The spatial pattern of some Little Ice Age precipitation changes appears to reflect a modified development of different phases of the summer monsoon. 5) As suggested by recent GCM studies, enhanced Little Ice Age aridity may be due to increased winter snow cover causing temperature and soil moisture feedbacks the following spun 6) Although there is some agreement between climate change in China and elsewhere, there are also indications that significant lap occur between the timing and direction of climate change in different regions. This pattern appears different from the warming trend of the past century, which is more uniform in both hemispheres.
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[Cited within:1]
[101] Zhang Pingzhong, Cheng Hai, Edwards R Let al., 2008. A test of climate, sun, and culture relationships from an 1810-year Chinese cave record.Science, 322(5903): 940-942.
A record from Wanxiang Cave, China, characterizes Asian Monsoon (AM) history over the past 1810 years. The summer monsoon correlates with solar variability, Northern Hemisphere and Chinese temperature, Alpine glacial retreat, and Chinese cultural changes. It was generally strong during Europe's Medieval Warm Period and weak during Europe's Little Ice Age, as well as during the final decades of the Tang, Yuan, and Ming Dynasties, all times that were characterized by popular unrest. It was strong during the first several decades of the Northern Song Dynasty, a period of increased rice cultivation and dramatic population increase. The sign of the correlation between the AM and temperature switches around 1960, suggesting that anthropogenic forcing superseded natural forcing as the major driver of AM changes in the late 20th century.
DOI:10.1126/science.1163965      PMID:18988851      [Cited within:0]
[102] Zhang Qibin, Cheng Guodong, Yao Tandonget al., 2003. A 2,326-year tree-ring record of climate variability on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.Geophysical Research Letters, 30(14): 1739.
High-resolution climate proxy records covering the last two millennia on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau are scarce yet essential to evaluation of the patterns, synchroneity and spatial extent of past climatic changes including those in the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we present a 2326-year tree-ring chronology of Sabina przewalskii Kom. for Dulan area of northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We find that the annual growth rings mainly reflect variations in regional spring precipitation. The greatest change in spring precipitation during the last two millennia seems to occur in the second half of the 4th century. The North Atlantic MWP was accompanied by notable wet springs in the study region during A.D. 929-1031 with the peak occurring around A.D. 974. Three intervals of dry springs occurred in the period of LIA. Our tree-ring data will facilitate intercontinental comparisons of large-scale synoptic climate variability for the last two millennia.
DOI:10.1029/2003GL017425      [Cited within:1]
[103] Zhang Yong, Shao Xuemei, Yin Zhiyonget al., 2011b. Characteristics of extreme droughts inferred from tree-ring data in the Qilian Mountains, 1700-2005.Climate Research, 50(2): 141-159.
国际
DOI:10.3354/cr01051      [Cited within:1]
[104] Zhang Yong, Shao Xuemei, Yin Zhiyonget al., 2014. Millennial minimum temperature variations in the Qilian Mountains, China: Evidence from Tree rings.Climate of the Past, 10(5): 1763-1778.
A 1343-year tree-ring chronology was developed from Qilian junipers in the central Qilian Mountains of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), China. The climatic implications of this chronology were investigated using simple correlation, partial correlation and response function analyses. The chronology was significantly positively correlated with temperature variables prior to and during the growing season, especially with monthly minimum temperature. Minimum temperature anomalies from January to August since AD 670 were then reconstructed based on the tree-ring chronology. The reconstruction explained 58% of the variance in the instrumental temperature records during the calibration period (1960-2012) and captured the variation patterns in minimum temperature at the annual to centennial timescales over the past millennium. The most recent 50 years were the warmest period, while 1690-1880 was the coldest period since AD 670. Comparisons with other temperature series from neighbouring regions and for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole supported the validity of our reconstruction and suggested that it provided a good regional representation of temperature change in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The results of wavelet analysis showed the occurrence of significant quasi-periodic patterns at a number of recurring periods (2-4, 40-50, and 90-170 years), which were consistent with those associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and solar activity. The comparison between the reconstructed temperature and the index of tropical volcanic radiative forcing indicated that some cold events recorded by tree rings may be due to the impact of tropical volcanic eruptions.
DOI:10.5194/cpd-10-341-2014      [Cited within:0]
[105] Zhang Yong, Tian Qinhua, Gou Xiaohuaet al., 2011a. Annual precipitation reconstruction since AD 775 based on tree rings from the Qilian Mountains, northwestern China.International Journal of Climatology, 31(3): 371-381.
A millennium-long tree-ring-width chronology from the middle Qilian Mountains in northwestern China has been used to reconstruct annual precipitation variation (from the prior August to current July) since AD 775. The reconstruction explains 37.8% of variance of the observed data. Based on the mean and standard deviation of the reconstructed series, several prolonged severe dry and wet periods were indentified: drought spells in AD 1144-1154 (11 years) and 1925-1932 (8 years) and wet spells in AD 985-999 (15 years), 1089-1097 (9 years) and 1979-1991 (12 years). Both multi-taper spectral analysis (MTM) and wavelet analysis suggest that periods of the reconstructed precipitation are consistent with those associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon and perhaps solar activity. Copyright. (C) 2010 Royal Meteorological Society
DOI:10.1002/joc.2085      [Cited within:0]
[106] Zhao Kan, Wang Yongjin, Edwards R Let al., 2015. A high-resolved record of the Asian summer monsoon from Dongge Cave, China for the past 1200 years.Quaternary Science Reviews, 122: 250-257.
Two annually-laminated and 230 Th-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope (δ 18 O) records from Dongge Cave, China, provided a high-resolution Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) history for the past 1200 years. A close similarity between annual band thickness and stable isotope analyses (δ 13 C and δ 18 O) suggests the calcite δ 18 O is most likely a proxy associated with ASM precipitation. The two duplicated stalagmite δ 18 O records show that the ASM varies at a periodicity of 65220 years, concordant with a dominant cycle of solar activity. A period of strong ASM activity occurred during the Sp02rer Minimum (1450–1550 A.D.), followed by a striking drop circa 1580 A.D., potentially consistent with the social unrest in the final decades of China's Ming Dynasty (1368–1644 A.D.). Centennial-scale changes in ASM precipitation over the last millennium match well with changes in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and South American summer monsoon precipitation. Our findings suggest that variations in low-latitude monsoon precipitation are probably driven by shifts in the mean position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), which is further mediated by solar activity and tropical SSTs.
DOI:10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.05.030      [Cited within:0]
[107] Zheng Jingyun, Ding Lingling, Hao Zhixinet al., 2012. Extreme cold winter events in southern China during AD 1650-2000.Boreas, 41(1): 1-12.
We defined extreme cold winter events as those with occurrence probabilities lower than the 10th percentile of the probability density function, based on observed winter temperatures in southern China since 1951. Subsequently, we constructed impact severity levels using documentary evidence for those events during 1951-2000, considering three indexes for the freezing of rivers/lakes, widespread snow/ice storms, and cold damage to subtropical/tropical crops. Using these criteria we identified 50 extreme cold winters for the period AD 1650-1949 based on similar to 4000 pieces of comparable information extracted from local gazettes in southern China, after verification using data from three weather stations with long records. It was found that the frequencies of the extreme cold winter events since 1650 varied over time. The most frequent occurrences were found during AD 1650-1699 and in the first and second halves of the 19th century, with frequencies twice as high as in the second half of the 20th century. In contrast, the frequencies of extreme winters during the 18th century were close to that in the second half of the 20th century. High frequencies of extreme cold winters in AD 1650-1720 and AD 1795-1835 occurred during the sunspot Maunder and Dalton Minima. The intensities of some historical cold events, such as those during 1653-1654, 1670, 1690, 1861, 1892 and 1929, exceeded those of the coldest winter events since 1951.
DOI:10.1111/j.1502-3885.2011.00225.x      [Cited within:0]
[108] Zheng Jingyun, Ge Quansheng, Hao Zhixinet al., 2014a. Paleoclimatology proxy recorded in historical documents and method for reconstruction on climate change.Quaternary Sciences, 34(6): 1186-1196. (in Chinese)
<p>As one of principal paleoclimatology proxy, documentary data have been proved to be of unique importance for reconstructions of climate change in quantitative for past thousands of years. This paper provides an overview of the information of meteorological records derived from Chinese historical documents and the advantages and drawbacks of historical records used as data sources on paleoclimatology reconstruction. Special attention is given to the su mmary on principal approaches for the reconstruction of climate change in quantitative based on various information recorded in different documentary sources. Furthermore, the reconstructions of temperature and wet/dry changes in central eastern China for the past 2000 years are presented, which were reconstructed by calibration on assembling several separate data derived from different documentary sources and different periods respectively. It aims to provide the methodology for the derivation of proxy data from historical documents in objective and the reconstruction of climate change in high quality. As well as, it will help to improve the approaches for future study on reconstruction of climate parameters and climate changes in higher confident level by using documentary evidences. In brief, there are 4 kinds of meteorological records from historical documents: weather observations, climate extreme and disasters, plant phenology and weather-dependent natural phenomena, descriptions and impacts of local or regional climate. They were recorded in different documents with different format, continuity, as well as the level of details and degree of quantitative descriptions. The approaches of regression analysis, physical model, grade assessment (by an ideal frequency criteria usually) with indices on an ordinal scale, counting (especially for frequency of climate event or disasters), analogy analysis are usually used for derivation and calibration between documentary proxies and climate parameters to reconstruct time series. However, the approaches for the derivation and calibration between documentary proxies and climate parameters in quantitative reconstruction of time series vary with the types of records. For example, the drought/flood grade was usually assessed by an ideal frequency criteria with 10% for severe drought in grade 1, 20% for drought in grade 2, 40% for normal in grade 3, 20% for flood in grade 4, and 10% for heavy flood in grade 5, based on the description of intensity, duration and area of the disaster, as well as its impact respectively. To deal with the discontinuities in original data for reconstructing a time series in consistency, the approaches of regression analysis, variance match, de-trending of the available records are always adopted for calibration on assembling several separate data derived from different documentary sources and different periods respectively. Moreover, it's necessary to formulate more approaches, especially for data interpolation, in future study.</p>
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7410.2014.06.07      [Cited within:1]
[109] Zheng Jingyun, Hao Zhixin, Fang Xiuqiet al., 2014c. Changing characteristics of extreme climate events during past 2000 years in China.Progress in Geography, 33(1): 3-12. (in Chinese)
In the current research on climate changes it is a hot topic to study the changes of extreme climatic events during historical periods. In this paper, based on the reconstructions from multiple proxy types including historical documents, tree-rings, ice cores and lake sediments in the published literature of the recent 20 years, we summarized the characteristics of changes of extreme climate events during the past 2000 years in China. The analysis shows that: (1) During the cold periods of 1500-1900 and 220-580, there appeared extremely cold winters that were even colder than the cold winters in the years after 1950, and there appeared hot summers with daily highest temperature exceeding record high of the years in the 20th century as well. In the past 1600 years, the cold summer events in Northeast of China mainly occurred during the period of 1400-1900. (2) In the eastern monsoon region of China, the extreme drought events prevailed during the periods of 301-400, 751-800, 1051-1150, 1501-1550 and 1601-1650, the extreme flood events often occurred during the periods of 101-150, 251-300, 951-1000, 1701-1750, 1801-1850 and 1901-1950, and for the period of 1551-1600, coexisting extreme drought and extreme flood events occurred most frequently. The frequency of persistent extreme drought was higher during the 7th-8th century, 12th-14th century and late-15th century to mid-17th century; the frequency of sustaining extreme flood was higher during the 10th-11th century and after the mid-17th century. The time intervals of extreme drought/flood events are different in North China, Yangtze and Huaihe River Valley and south of Yangtze River. In addition, the notable extreme drought events, such as "Chong Zhen Drought" in the Ming Dynasty, and "Ding Wu Famine" in the Qing Dynasty, were recognized. (3) In the arid region of Northwest China, the extreme drought events mainly occurred during the periods of 1471-1520, 1581-1650, 1711-1760, 1811-1860 and 1921-1970. 1710s was the most severe drought decade during the past 1000 years. However, due to the very limited climate proxy data for this region, the primary characteristics of complete change process of the extreme events were difficult to evaluate. (4) Although drought frequently occurred in southwest of China during the early 21th century, the extreme drought events as severe as the one in Sichuan and Chongqing in 2006 occurred many times during the historical periods.
DOI:10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.01.001      [Cited within:2]
[110] Zheng Jingyun, Hao Zhixin, Ge Quansheng, 2005b. Variation of precipitation for the last 300 years over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 48(12): 2182-2193.
Reconstruction of high-resolution historical climatic series is the key issue for Past Global Changes (PAGES) and Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR), the two core projects of the international research programme on global changes. High-resol
DOI:10.1360/03yd0392      [Cited within:1]
[111] Zheng Jingyun, Hao Zhixin, Zhang Xuezhenet al., 2014b. Drought/flood spatial patterns in centennial cold and warm periods of the past 2000 years over eastern China.Chinese Science Bulletin, 59(30): 2964-2971. (in Chinese)
DOI:10.1360/n972014-00393      [Cited within:1]
[112] Zheng Jingyun, Man Zhimin, Fang Xiuqiet al., 2005a. Temperature variation in the eastern China during Wei, Jin and South-North Dynasties (220-580AD).Quaternary Sciences, 25(2): 129-140. (in Chinese)
<p>Based on records of abnormal frost dates and snowfalls, as well as the description on plant phenophase in the historical documents during the Wei, Jin and South-North Dynasties (220~580A.D.), the winter half-year temperature anomaly for every 30 years and for some decades ineastern China is estimated. The temperature variation during this period is compared with other natural proxy evidence. The main conclusions are as the following: (1) The climate in the Wei, Jin and South-North Dynasties was cold. During this period, the winter half-year temperature on average in the eastern China was 0 5℃ lower than that of the present (1951~1980), the temperature in the coldest 30 years (480s~500s) was 1 2℃ lower than that of the present. According to the reconstructed temperature, the extreme cold events recorded in the historical documents, and the advancement of glaciers in the mountains in the western China, it is inferred that the cold climate during the Wei, Jin and South-North Dynasties is the one comparable with the Little Ice Age (LIA) for the past 2 000 years. (2) There was a centennial scale variation of cold-warm-cold trend during the period. The two cold troughs appeared around 270s~350s and 450s~530s, when the winter half-year temperature for the eastern China was about 0.5℃ (270s~350s) and 0.9℃ (450s~530s) lower than that of the present day. Though 360s~440s was a relatively warmer, the winter half-year temperature was still lower than that of the present. Noted here that the veritable temperature in the east of China during the Wei, Jin and South-North Dynasties might be even lower than the reconstructed temperature in this paper because the minimal anomaly days of extreme date of frost or snow to the present are used for estimating the temperature anomaly at that time.</p>
[Cited within:0]
[113] Zheng Jingyun, Wang Wei-Chyung, Ge Quanshenget al., 2006. Precipitation variability and extreme events in eastern China during the past 1500 years.Terrestrial Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 17(3): 579-592.
precipitation variability; extreme events; eastern China; past 1500 years
DOI:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2006.00188.x      [Cited within:0]
[114] Zhu Haifeng, Fang Xiuqi, Shao Xuemeiet al., 2009. Tree ring-based February-April temperature reconstruction for Changbai Mountain in Northeast China and its implication for East Asian winter monsoon.Climate of the Past, 5(4): 661-666.
[Cited within:0]
[115] Zhu Haifeng, Zheng Yonghong, Shao Xuemeiet al., 2008. Millennial temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring widths of Qilian juniper from Wulan, Qinghai Province, China.Chinese Science Bulletin, 53(24): 3914-3920.
The climate of the past 1000 years is an important context for evaluating the recent climate warming. However, there are few 1000-year-long climate reconstructions with annual resolution in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In this paper, a dendroclimatic analysis was conducted for the radial growth of Qilian juniper from the upper forest limit in Wulan, Qinghai Province. The results of correlation analysis between the tree-ring widths and the climate variables indicate that the growth of junipers at the upper forest limit is mainly limited by low temperatures of September, November and February of the pregrowth season, and July of the current growth season. There is no significant correlation between the tree-ring widths and precipitation. A mean temperature from the previous year’s September to the current year’s April was reconstructed for the Wulan area since A.D. 1000. The reconstruction can explain 40.8% of the instrumental variance in the calibration period (1856–2002). The reconstruction shows that the 20th century is the warmest 100 years, and the 1990s is the warmest decade during the past 1000 years, while the coldest 100 years and decade occur at 1600–1699 and 1642–1651, respectively. The variations are verified well by the temperature reconstruction of the middle Qilian Mountain (QL) and the total organic carbon (TOC) in the Qinghai Lake sediments. The comparison of our reconstruction with the annual temperature reconstruction of extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere suggests that the climate of Wulan during the Medieval Warm Period is of obvious regional specialty, but there was a good response to the climate of hemispheric scales during the recent 400 years.
DOI:10.1007/s11434-008-0400-8      [Cited within:0]
[116] Chen Feng, Yuan Yujiang, Wei Wenshouet al., 2009. Spring mean maximum temperature series and its variation properties in Hutubi River Basin during the last 313 years.Journal of Desert Research, 29(1): 162-166. (in Chinese)
<P><FONT face=Verdana>The tree-ring chronologies were established according to samples from the Hutubi River Basin, northern slopes of Tianshan Mountains. Single correlation screen indicated that the correlations were significant between the tree-ring residual chronologies and the mean maximum temperature from May to June, and the maximum correlation coefficient was 0.505. At the same time, the result has distinct physiological significance. With 3 tree-ring residual chronologies in Kayinsayi(t), Kayinsayi(t+1) and Xirekejiurete(t+1), the mean maximum temperature in the recent 313 years was well reconstructed, and the reconstructed equation was stable proved by crossing-test. The main results are as follows:①The reconstructed temperature series had 7 warm periods above its mean and 6 cold periods bellow its mean; ②The reconstructed temperature series from May to June in the Hutubi River Basin during the last 313 years had significant period cycles of 7~18 years, 30 years; ③The abrupt change of temperature occurred in 1886.</FONT></P>
DOI:      [Cited within:0]
[117] Deng Yang, Gou Xiaohua, Gao Linlinet al., 2014. Early-summer temperature variations over the past 563 yr inferred from tree rings in the Shaluli Mountains, southeastern Tibet Plateau.Quaternary Research, 81(3): 513-519.
[Cited within:0]
[118] Duan Jianping, Zhang Qibin, 2014. A 449-year warm-season temperature reconstruction in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and its relation to solar activity.Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 119(20): 11578-11592.
There is a close relationship between solar activity and the Earth's surface temperature, but this relationship has weakened with recent global warming. To better understand this puzzle, temperature records need to be extended, and the relationship between long‐term variation in temperature and solar activity needs to be examined. In this study, we reconstruct April–September temperature variation back to 1563 using tree ring maximum late wood density (MXD) data from Balfour spruce in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP). Spatial correlation analysis indicates that our reconstruction is representative of temperature variability over the large‐scale TP. On the 22 year time scale, the reconstructed April–September temperature corresponds generally to solar activity over the past three centuries. Spectral analyses also indicate that the significant periodicities of ~1165years, 5465years, and 20465years observed in the MXD chronology correspond to the Schwabe cycle, the fourth harmonic of the Suess cycle, and the Suess solar cycle, respectively. However, disparities between temperature change and solar activity are identified in two periods, the 1880s–1900s and the 1980s–present. These results suggest that solar forcing is the critical driver for long‐term temperature variability in the TP, but other factors may uncouple surface temperature and solar activity in some periods. One possible cause of the weak effect of solar activity on temperature during the 1880s–1900s is internal climate variability, while human‐activity‐induced greenhouse gas emissions have likely superseded solar forcing as the major driver of the rapid warming observed since the 1980s.
DOI:10.1002/2014JD022422      [Cited within:0]
[119] Fan Minjie, Yuan Yujiang, Wei Wenshouet al., 2008. Interpolation and Analysis of Mean Summer Maximum Temperature in Yili Prefecture in the West Tianshan Mountains,China. Arid Z one Research, 25(1): 75-81. (in Chinese)
[Cited within:0]
[120] Fan Zexin, Brauning A, Tian Qinhuaet al., 2010. Tree ring recorded May-August temperature variations since AD 1585 in the Gaoligong Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology,Palaeoecology, 296(1): 94-102.
[Cited within:0]
[121] Gou Xiaohua, Chen Fahu, Jacoby Get al., 2007. Rapid tree growth with respect to the last 400 years in response to climate warming, northeastern Tibetan Plateau.International Journal of Climatology, 27(11): 1497-1503.
Abstract Although global warming over the past century has been confirmed, the response of different regions to it is still uncertain. We developed a tree-ring width chronology based on tree-ring samples from juniper trees from the Xiqing Mountains in the northeast Tibetan Plateau, the central headwater area of the Yellow River. Using this tree-ring chronology, the minimum winter half-year (October–April) temperature for the research area was reconstructed for the past 425 years. The reconstruction shows that temperature variability was minimal over past four centuries prior to the warming that began in 1941. During the 50 years from 1941 to 1990, the minimum temperature of the winter half-year increased 2.5 °C. This degree of warming relative to the past 400 years suggests that the eastern Tibetan Plateau is highly sensitive to global warming. Copyright 08 2007 Royal Meteorological Society
DOI:10.1002/joc.1480      [Cited within:0]
[122] Gou Xiaohua, Chen Fahu, Yang Meixueet al., 2008. Asymmetric variability between maximum and minimum temperatures in northeastern Tibetan Plateau: evidence from tree rings. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 51(1): 41-55.
Ecological systems in the headwaters of the Yellow River, characterized by hash natural environmental conditions, are very vulnerable to climatic change. In the most recent decades, this area greatly attracted the public’s attention for its more and more deteriorating environmental conditions. Based on tree-ring samples from the Xiqing Mountain and A’nyêmagên Mountains at the headwaters of the Yellow River in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau, we reconstructed the minimum temperatures in the winter half year over the last 425 years and the maximum temperatures in the summer half year over the past 700 years in this region. The variation of minimum temperature in the winter half year during the time span of 1578–1940 was a relatively stable trend, which was followed by an abrupt warming trend since 1941. However, there is no significant warming trend for the maximum temperature in the summer half year over the 20th century. The asymmetric variation patterns between the minimum and maximum temperatures were observed in this study over the past 425 years. During the past 425 years, there are similar variation patterns between the minimum and maximum temperatures; however, the minimum temperatures vary about 25 years earlier compared to the maximum temperatures. If such a trend of variation patterns between the minimum and maximum temperatures over the past 425 years continues in the future 30 years, the maximum temperature in this region will increase significantly.
DOI:10.1007/s11430-007-0154-1      [Cited within:0]
[123] He Minhui, Yang Bao, Datsenko N M, 2014. A six hundred-year annual minimum temperature history for the central Tibetan Plateau derived from tree-ring width series.Climate Dynamics, 43(3): 641-655.
The recent unprecedented warming found in different regions has aroused much attention in the past years. How temperature has really changed on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) remains unknown since very limited high-resolution temperature series can be found over this region, where large areas of snow and ice exist. Herein, we develop two Juniperus tibetica Kom. tree-ring width chronologies from different elevations. We found that the two tree-ring series only share high-frequency variability. Correlation, response function and partial correlation analysis indicate that prior year annual (January–December) minimum temperature is most responsible for the higher belt juniper radial growth, while more or less precipitation signal is contained by the tree-ring width chronology at the lower belt and is thus excluded from further analysis. The tree growth-climate model accounted for 4002% of the total variance in actual temperature during the common period 1957–2010. The detected temperature signal is further robustly verified by other results. Consequently, a six century long annual minimum temperature history was firstly recovered for the Yushu region, central TP. Interestingly, the rapid warming trend during the past five decades is identified as a significant cold phase in the context of the past 60002years. The recovered temperature series reflects low-frequency variability consistent with other temperature reconstructions over the whole TP region. Furthermore, the present recovered temperature series is associated with the Asian monsoon strength on decadal to multidecadal scales over the past 60002years.
DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1882-x      [Cited within:0]
[124] Hu Yicheng, Yuan Yujiang, Wei Wenshouet al., 2012. Tree-ring reconstruction of mean June-July temperature during 1613-2006 in East Altay, Xinjiang of China.Journal of Desert Research, 32(4): 1003-1009. (in Chinese)
Eight tree-ring width chronologies have been set up based on the tree-ring samples of Larix sibirica Ledeb. collected from the eastern Altay region, northern Xinjiang of China. The correlation analysis showed that there are significant correlation between tree-ring width chronologies and mean temperature in period of June to July at Qinghe Weather Station, and the correlation coefficient between Zhuolesayi tree-ring chronology and the mean temperature is the largest (0.555, P&lt;0.0001). The mean June July temperature during 1613-2006 in the eastern Altay region can be better reconstructed by using Zhuolesayi t and Zhuolesayi t+3 tree-ring standardized chronologies. Cross validation test proved that the reconstruction functions are stable and reliable. The reconstructed series suggested that:(1) The variation of mean June July temperature in eastern Altay region had seven warm stages and seven cold stages in these 394 years. (2) The change of mean June July temperature existed significantly quasi-periodic change of 2.7~3.7 years, 43.7 years and 52.4 years. (3) The reconstructed series showed 10 abrupt changes in 1669, 1691, 1714, 1732, 1762, 1781, 1802, 1919, 1939 and 1963.
[Cited within:0]
[125] Li Mingyong, Wang Lili, Fan Zexinet al., 2015. Tree-ring density inferred late summer temperature variability over the past three centuries in the Gaoligong Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology,Palaeoecology, 422: 57-64.
[Cited within:0]
[126] Li Zongshan, Zhang Qibin, Ma Keping, 2012. Tree-ring reconstruction of summer temperature for A.D. 1475-2003 in the central Hengduan Mountains, northwestern Yunnan, China.Climatic Change, 110(1/2): 455-467.
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[127] Liang Eeyuan, Shao Xuemei, Qin Ningsheng, 2008. Tree-ring based summer temperature reconstruction for the source region of the Yangtze River on the Tibetan Plateau.Global and Planetary Change, 61(s3/4): 313-320.
Tibetan Plateau; dendroclimatology; climate change; historical climatic documents; glacial fluctuations; volcanic eruption
DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.10.008      [Cited within:0]
[128] Liu Xiaohong, Qin Dahe, Shao Xuemeiet al., 2005. Temperature variations recovered from tree-rings in the middle Qilian Mountain over the last millennium.Science in China Series D Earth Sciences, 48(4): 521-529.
Based on the cross-dated tree-ring samples collected from the middle Qilian Mountain, a standard ring-width chronology had been developed, which covered the period AD 1000 to 2000. The correlations between the chronology and climatic records from the nearby meteorological stations indicated that temperature was the dominant climatic factor for tree growth at upper timberline, and the most important climatic factor for the tree growth in the area was the mean temperature from previous December to current April. The temperature variations recovered from the ring-width data showed a cold period during the "Little Ice Age" and the continuous warming during the twentieth century. Comparison between the ring-width chronology and 18O records from the Dunde ice core in the Qilian Mountain indicated that there was a consistent trend in both time series. A significant correlation existed between our ring-width chronology and the Northern Hemispheric temperature, suggesting that the climate changes in the Qilian Mountain were not only driven by regional factors, but also responsive to the global climate.
DOI:10.1360/03yd0063      [Cited within:0]
[129] Liu Yu, An Zhisheng, Linderholm HWet al., 2009. Annual temperatures during the last 2485 years in the mid-eastern Tibetan Plateau inferred from tree rings. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 52(3): 348-359.
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[130] Pan Yating, Yuan Yujiang, Yu Shulong, 2007. Reconstruction and analysis of summer temperature sequence for Boertala River basin over past 461 years.Journal of Desert Research, 27(1): 159-164. (in Chinese)
<P><FONT face=Verdana>The tree-ring chronologies were established according to samples from Boertala River basin, west slope of Tianshan Mountains. Single correlation indicated that the correlations were relatively significant between the 24 tree-ring chronologies and the monthly average temperature from July to August, and the maximum correlation coefficient was -0\^516. Using the 3 tree-ring residual chronologies in Ranbuersayi(t+2), Tielimensayi(t+1)and Ahexiate(t+2), the monthly average temperature sequence in the recent 461 years was well reconstructed, and the reconstructed equation was stable by crossing-test. We found out that, by analyzing the temperature sequences, the reconstructed temperature sequence in the recent 461 years has 27 warm periods above its mean and 28 cold periods bellow its mean. The monthly average reconstructed temperature sequence from July to August in the recent 461 years in Boertala River basin had the significant changing periods of 11-year, 12-year, 13-year, 22-year, 27-year, 40-year, 72-year, 93-year, 94-year, 95-year, 146-year, and 147-year. The abruptly change of temperature occurred in year 1696, 1838, 1842, and 1962.</FONT></P>
DOI:      [Cited within:0]
[131] Shang Huaming, Wei Wenshou, Yuan Yujianget al., 2010. The mean June temperature history of 436a in Altay reconstructed from tree ring.Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 24(8): 116-121. (in Chinese)
Altay mountains,located at the most northwestern China,is the upper stream of the climate and weather of China.Due to the relatively high elevation and latitude,the temperature in June is relatively low.Most of the previous dendroclimatological researches for northwest arid and semiarid China,respond to precipitation,only a few are sensitive to temperature.Tree ring samples from the upper tree line of Altay Mountains in Altay City were collected in 2005.Three kind of tree ring width chronologies were developed and correlated with the meteorological data from Altay weather station.The results show that tree ring width is significantly positive related to the current June temperature,and the relationship has the obvious physiological mechanism.June is the fast growth period for Larix sibirica Ledb.,and is also the leading recharge time of melt water.Under the sufficient water supply conditions,higher temperature is benefit to photosynthesis.The first principal component of three tree ring width standardized chronologies was taken by the method of principal component analysis.The transfer function between the mean June temperature and principle component was set up.The function passed the stability test and the total explained variance of it is 41.5%.The reconstructed 436a mean June temperature experienced six cold periods and five warm periods.Spectral analysis has revealed the most significant cycles of the reconstructed temperature series.Cycles of 2 and 4 years are well expressed and close to "quasi-biennial oscillation" and earth rotation cycles.
DOI:10.3788/gzxb20103906.0998      [Cited within:0]
[132] Shi Xinghe, Qin Ningsheng, Zhu Haifenget al., 2010. May-June mean maximum temperature change during 1360-2005 as reconstructed by tree rings of Sabina Tibetica in Zaduo, Qinghai Province.Chinese Science Bulletin, 55(26): 3023-3029.
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[133] Song Huiming, Liu Yu, Li Qianget al., 2014. Tree-ring based May-July temperature reconstruction since AD 1630 on the Western Loess Plateau, China.Plos One, 9(4): e93504.
Tree-ring samples from Chinese Pine ( Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) collected at Mt. Shimen on the western Loess Plateau, China, were used to reconstruct the mean May–July temperature during AD 1630–2011. The regression model explained 48% of the adjusted variance in the instrumentally observed mean May–July temperature. The reconstruction revealed significant temperature variations at interannual to decadal scales. Cool periods observed in the reconstruction coincided with reduced solar activities. The reconstructed temperature matched well with two other tree-ring based temperature reconstructions conducted on the northern slope of the Qinling Mountains (on the southern margin of the Loess Plateau of China) for both annual and decadal scales. In addition, this study agreed well with several series derived from different proxies. This reconstruction improves upon the sparse network of high-resolution paleoclimatic records for the western Loess Plateau, China.
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0093504      PMID:3972095      [Cited within:0]
[134] Tian Qinhua, Gou Xiaohua, Zhang Yonget al., 2009. May-June mean temperature reconstruction over the past 300 years based on tree rings in the Qilian mountains of the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau.IAWA Journal, 30(4): 421-434.
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[135] Wang Jianglin, Yang Bao, Ljungqvist F C, 2015. A millennial summer temperature reconstruction for the Eastern Tibetan Plateau from tree ring width.Journal of Climate, 28(13): 5289-5304.
Although tree-ring-width-based temperature reconstructions of centennial-to-millennial length have previously been published for many parts of the eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP), a millennium-long regional-scale composite reconstruction with annual resolution has so far been lacking. Here, the authors present a reconstruction of June ugust (JJA) temperature variability over the ETP for the period AD 1000-2005 using a nested composite-plus-scale (CPS) approach to 12 temperature-sensitive tree-ring width chronologies, including 946 individual tree-ring width series. The composite reconstruction reveals warm episodes occurring during much of the sixteenth, nineteenth, and twentieth centuries and cold episodes during much of the eleventh, seventeenth, and eighteenth centuries. The period AD 1996-2005 is likely the warmest decade in the context of the past millennium. The authors explore the influence of possible forcings, finding only a weak direct relationship of temperature changes over the ETP with solar forcing at multidecadal time scales but a robust in-phase relationship with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) during the past millennium. This suggests that the AMO may play an important role in controlling summer temperature variability over the ETP at multidecadal time scales. A comparison with temperature reconstructions from the higher latitudes of East Asia, central-eastern China, and the whole of the Northern Hemisphere shows that the cold eleventh century and the warm nineteenth century prevailing over ETP are somewhat unique, suggesting regional specific characteristics of the temperature variability in this region. This result highlights the need to further increase the number of millennium-long, high-resolution temperature records from East Asia.
DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00738.1      [Cited within:0]
[136] Wang Jianglin, Yang Bao, Qin Chunet al., 2014. Tree-ring inferred annual mean temperature variations on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the last millennium and their relationships with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.Climate Dynamics, 43(3): 627-640.
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[137] Wang Lili, Duan Jianping, Chen Jinet al., 2010. Temperature reconstruction from tree-ring maximum density of Balfour spruce in eastern Tibet, China.International Journal of Climatology, 30(7): 972-979.
Wood from Balfour spruce [Picea likiangensis var. balfouriana (Rehd. et Wils.)] was collected at three sites in eastern Tibet. Maximum latewood densities (MXD) were measured by X-ray densitometry; individual series were first cross dated and then combined to form a standard chronology. This chronology was significantly correlated with late summer temperatures on the eastern Tibetan Plateau. It ...
DOI:10.1002/joc.2000      [Cited within:0]
[138] Yang Bao, Kang Xingcheng, Brauning Aet al., 2010b. A 622-year regional temperature history of southeast Tibet derived from tree rings.The Holocene, 20(2): 181-190.
tree ring-width record spanning from AD 1377-1998 was developed from Tibetan juniper (Cupressus gigantea) growing at sites north of the deep gorge of the Yarlung Tsangbo River of southeast Tibet. A linear regression model between ring width and mean January-June temperature accounts for 35% of January-June temperature variance for the period 1961-1998. Based on this model, we reconstructed January-June temperature variation history for the study region during the past 622 years. Warm conditions occurred during AD 1385-1418, 1443-1466, 1482-1501, 1523-1548, 1570s, 1705-1759, 1770-1790, 1851-1888, 1910s, and 1938-1965, and periods of relatively cold years are identified forAD 1419-1442, 1470s, 1502-1522, 1550-1569, 1610-1640, 1680-1700, 1760s, 1791-1850, 1900s and 1965-1995. Spatial correlation between tree rings and observed temperatures indicates that the reconstruction is representative of temperature change for southeast Tibet. Regional cold conditions during AD 1625, 1685, 1760, 1800-1850, 1890-1930 and 1965-1995, and warm conditions during 1710, 1730-1750, 1850-1890 and 1930-1960 can be identified in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Our reconstruction shows good agreement with modelled regional temperatures derived from an ECHO-G model simulation. Common cold periods around 1470, 1685 and 1845 corresponding to the Sp脙露rer Minimum, the Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum periods of low solar activity and increased volcanic activity were identified, indicating that solar and volcanic activity played an important role in temperature change of this region. The discrepancy between modelled and reconstructed temperatures was noted around 1965, reflecting that temperature decrease in the late 20th century (1965-1995) is anomalous.
DOI:10.1177/0959683609350388      [Cited within:0]
[139] Yang Bao, Kang Xingcheng, Liu Jingjinget al., 2010a. Annual temperature history in Southwest Tibet during the last 400 years recorded by tree rings.International Journal of Climatology, 30(7): 962-971.
Abstract Top of page Abstract 1.Introduction 2.Material and methods 3.Results and discussion Acknowledgements References We present a tree ring-width record from the southern Tibetan Plateau (TP) which spans from 1612–1998 AD (387 years). The series was developed from Tibetan juniper ( Juniperus tibetica Kom) growing at sites near the western distribution limit of the species. Two versions of the chronology, a traditionally standardized chronology (TSC) and a regional curve standardization (RCS)chronology were developed. Linear regression models between ring width and mean annual temperature account for 41% (TSC) and 43% (RCS) of the annual (July–June) temperature variance for the period 1957–1998. According to the TSC reconstruction, warm periods occurred during the 1620s, 1650–1675, 1720s, 1740–1790, 1810s, 1850s–1890s, 1935–1950, and 1957–1964 and since 1980. Cold conditions prevailed during the 1630s–1640s, 1680s–1710s, 1730s, 1820–1840s, 1900s–1920s and the 1970s. Within the last 400 years, the late-20th century warming is distinctive but still within the range of natural climatic variability of this region. Comparison of our TSC reconstruction with proxy temperature records from other parts of the TP shows that the cold conditions during the 1730s, 1900s–1920s, and 1970s, and the warm periods during the 1770–1800, 1850s–1890s, 1935–1950, and 1957–1964 and since 1980 were synchronously occurring broad-scale climate anomalies on the whole TP. Differences between the reconstructions are found during the 17th century and around 1760, which were probably caused by local differences in temperature change and different sensitivity in seasonality. The RCS series portrays low-frequency variations such as warm periods during 1620–1640, 1650–1690, 1715–1790, and 1845–1875, and cold conditions during 1640–1650, 1690–1715, and 1875–1995. These long-term trends need to be verified by developing other proxy records that target to capture low-frequency signals in the future. Copyright 08 2009 Royal Meteorological Society
DOI:10.1002/joc.1956      [Cited within:0]
[140] Yu Shulong, Yuan Yujiang, He Qinget al., 2007. Reconstruction of temperature series from A.D. 1468-2001 in the Jinghe, Xinjiang.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 29(3): 374-379. (in Chinese)
Three Tree-ring chronologies are obtained by using the ARSTAN program based on conifer samples (<i>Picea Schrenkiana</i> Var <i>Tiansclhanica</i>) collected from Tianshan Mountains.Single correlation calculation indicated that the correlations are significant among the three tree-ring chronologies and temperature from May to August at Jinghe in Tianshan Mountains,the greatest single correlation coefficient is 0.511 (significant is much greater than the 99.9 percent level).The result has distinct physiological significance.Considering the hysteresis of tree growth to temperature,an average temperature series from May to August was well reconstructed and its explain variance was 62.62% by means of the tree-ring chronology series.It was verified that the reconstructed temperature was reliable by leave-one-out.Some results obtained by analyzing the 534 years reconstructed temperature series are as follows: 1) In the past 534 years,there were 296 normal years,which overwhelming proportion was 55.4%.And there were 32 extra-warmer years and 17 extra-colder years.Source experienced 7 warmer periods and 7 colder periods,3 colder periods among this periods accorded with that of Chinese Litter Ice Age and Tibetan Plateau.2) Significant change periods is dissimilar in different period,40 a periods accorded with that of the global temperature field.3) Occurrence of 4 abrupt changes in 1541,1684,1855,1969 was detected,and abrupt year of 1969 is also detected in the Guliya Ice Core.
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[141] Zhang Ruibo, Yuan Yujiang, Wei Wenshouet al., 2015. Dendroclimatic reconstruction of autumn-winter mean minimum temperature in the eastern Tibetan Plateau since 1600 AD.Dendrochronologia, 33: 1-7.
We developed three tree-ring width chronologies of Dragon Spruce ( Picea likiangensis var. balfouriana) from Qamdo region in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. It was found that the autumn–winter mean minimum temperature was the principal factor that limited the radial growth of Dragon Spruce. In particular, the tree-ring width chronology of the Changdu site was related significantly and positively with the autumn–winter mean minimum temperature. Using standard dendrochronological (STD) method, we obtained a 400-year reconstruction of October–January minimum temperature at the Qamdo meteorological station. The reconstruction explains 43.1% of the variance in the instrumental temperature records during the 1954–2006 calibration periods. It indicates that quasi-periodic changes exist on scales of 5, 11, and 102–103a. The temperature fluctuates around the mean and rises slowly from 1594 to the 1700s, following which the autumn–winter mean minimum temperature exhibited obvious stage changes with warmer periods (1769–1800, 1819–1849, 1873–1900, 1926–1954, 1987–2006) and colder periods (1716–1768, 1801–1818, 1850–1872, 1901–1925, 1955–1986). The temperature in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the mean temperature in the Northern Hemisphere exhibited good consistency in the 20th century. From 1900 to the 1930s, the temperature rose slowly and then declined sharply in the 1940s. In the 1950s, the temperature rose, before falling again in the early 1960s, prior to a gradual increase following the late 1960s. The temperature in Qamdo represents the temperature of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, and significant positive correlations were found with other temperature reconstructions on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and the southern slopes of the Himalaya (including the Indian peninsula). The India-Burma Trough may have a certain effect on climate change in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. The reconstruction sheds new light on temperature variability and change in a region where the climate history for the past several centuries is poorly understood.
DOI:10.1016/j.dendro.2014.09.001      [Cited within:0]
[142] Zhang Tongwen, Yuan Yujiang, Liu Yuet al., 2013. A tree-ring based temperature reconstruction for the Kaiduhe River watershed, northwestern China, since AD 1680: Linkages to the North Atlantic Oscillation.Quaternary International, 311: 71-80.
September March mean temperature has been reconstructed to A.D. 1680 for the Kaiduhe River watershed on the southern slope of the Tien Shan Mountains, China, using the Picea schrenkiana tree-ring width. The reconstruction explains the variance of 47% in the observed mean temperature from 1953 to 2011. Power spectral and wavelet analyses demonstrated the existence of significant 50-year and 2- to 7-year cycles of variability. The results of the spatial correlations suggest that our reconstruction contains climatic signals for Central Asia. Warm periods occurred during 1696-1708, 1730-1748, 1784-1804, 1832-1855, 1892-1903, 1924-1928, 1937-1943, and 1987-2006; while the periods of 1685-1695,1709-1729,1749-1783,1805-1831,1856-1891,1904-1923,1929-1936, and 1944-1986 were relatively cold. The significant correlation coefficient between the reconstruction and the temperature reconstruction for the Urumqi River source reveals that the temperature variations in the annual cold period for the southern and the northern slope of the central Tien Shan Mountains are roughly synchronous over the last nearly 300 years. A comparison between the reconstruction and three winter North Atlantic Oscillation indexes revealed similar long-term trends. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.
DOI:10.1016/j.quaint.2013.07.026      [Cited within:0]
[143] Zhang Yong, Shao Xuemei, Yin Zhiyonget al., 2014. Millennial minimum temperature variations in the Qilian Mountains, China: evidence from Tree rings.Climate of the Past, 10(5): 1763-1778.
A 1343-year tree-ring chronology was developed from Qilian junipers in the central Qilian Mountains of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), China. The climatic implications of this chronology were investigated using simple correlation, partial correlation and response function analyses. The chronology was significantly positively correlated with temperature variables prior to and during the growing season, especially with monthly minimum temperature. Minimum temperature anomalies from January to August since AD 670 were then reconstructed based on the tree-ring chronology. The reconstruction explained 58% of the variance in the instrumental temperature records during the calibration period (1960-2012) and captured the variation patterns in minimum temperature at the annual to centennial timescales over the past millennium. The most recent 50 years were the warmest period, while 1690-1880 was the coldest period since AD 670. Comparisons with other temperature series from neighbouring regions and for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole supported the validity of our reconstruction and suggested that it provided a good regional representation of temperature change in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The results of wavelet analysis showed the occurrence of significant quasi-periodic patterns at a number of recurring periods (2-4, 40-50, and 90-170 years), which were consistent with those associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and solar activity. The comparison between the reconstructed temperature and the index of tropical volcanic radiative forcing indicated that some cold events recorded by tree rings may be due to the impact of tropical volcanic eruptions.
DOI:10.5194/cpd-10-341-2014      [Cited within:0]
[144] Zhu Haifeng, Shao Xuemei, Yin Zhiyonget al., 2011a. Early summer temperature reconstruction in the eastern Tibetan Plateau since ad 1440 using tree-ring width of Sabina tibetica.Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 106(1/2): 45-53.
中国科学院机构知识库(中国科学院机构知识库网格(CAS IR GRID))以发展机构知识能力和知识管理能力为目标,快速实现对本机构知识资产的收集、长期保存、合理传播利用,积极建设对知识内容进行捕获、转化、传播、利用和审计的能力,逐步建设包括知识内容分析、关系分析和能力审计在内的知识服务能力,开展综合知识管理。
DOI:10.1007/s00704-011-0419-7      [Cited within:0]
[145] Zhu Haifeng, Shao Xuemei, Yin Zhiyonget al., 2011b. August temperature variability in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau since AD 1385 inferred from tree rings. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 305(1): 84-92.
Long-term high-resolution climate proxies are essential for understanding climate variability on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), where few long-term climate records are available. In this paper, we describe a summer (August) temperature reconstruction over the period 1385–2002 based on a tree-ring width chronology of Balfour spruce ( Picea likiangensis var. balfouriana ) on the southeastern TP created using the Regional Curve Standardization method. The reconstruction explains 44.7% of the variance in the instrumental temperature records during the calibration period (1962–2002), and captures temperature variability over a broad region of the TP. Warmer than average Augusts were found during the periods 1446–1494, 1509–1522, 1553–1567, 1797–1812, 1845–1905 and 1918–2002. Cooler than average Augusts occurred from 1385–1416, 1426–1445, 1495–1508, 1523–1552, 1568–1686, 1695–1718, 1725–1796, 1813–1844 and 1906–1917. A warming trend in the 20th century was unprecedented during the past six centuries. The reconstruction closely matched other tree-ring summer temperature reconstructions from neighboring regions, as well as patterns from ice-core δ 18 O data, and fluctuated in synchrony with Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions.
DOI:10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.02.017      [Cited within:0]
[146] Zhu Haifeng, Zheng Yonghong, Shao Xuemeiet al., 2008. Millennial temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring widths of Qilian juniper from Wulan, Qinghai Province, China.Chinese Science Bulletin, 53(24): 3914-3920.
The climate of the past 1000 years is an important context for evaluating the recent climate warming. However, there are few 1000-year-long climate reconstructions with annual resolution in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In this paper, a dendroclimatic analysis was conducted for the radial growth of Qilian juniper from the upper forest limit in Wulan, Qinghai Province. The results of correlation analysis between the tree-ring widths and the climate variables indicate that the growth of junipers at the upper forest limit is mainly limited by low temperatures of September, November and February of the pregrowth season, and July of the current growth season. There is no significant correlation between the tree-ring widths and precipitation. A mean temperature from the previous year’s September to the current year’s April was reconstructed for the Wulan area since A.D. 1000. The reconstruction can explain 40.8% of the instrumental variance in the calibration period (1856–2002). The reconstruction shows that the 20th century is the warmest 100 years, and the 1990s is the warmest decade during the past 1000 years, while the coldest 100 years and decade occur at 1600–1699 and 1642–1651, respectively. The variations are verified well by the temperature reconstruction of the middle Qilian Mountain (QL) and the total organic carbon (TOC) in the Qinghai Lake sediments. The comparison of our reconstruction with the annual temperature reconstruction of extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere suggests that the climate of Wulan during the Medieval Warm Period is of obvious regional specialty, but there was a good response to the climate of hemispheric scales during the recent 400 years.
DOI:10.1007/s11434-008-0400-8      [Cited within:0]
[147] Chen Feng, Yuan Yujiang, Wei Wenshouet al., 2009. Reconstruction and analysis of precipitation in the Hutubi River Basin on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains during the last 313 years.Arid Zone Research, 26(1): 130-135. (in Chinese)
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[148] Chen Feng, Yuan Yujiang, Wei Wenshouet al., 2012. Tree-ring-based reconstruction of precipitation in the Changling Mountains, China, since AD 1691.International Journal of Biometeorology, 56(4): 765-774.
Abstract<br/>Seven different tree-ring parameters were obtained from Chinese pine (<em class="a-plus-plus">Pinus tabulaeformis</em>) in the Changling Mountains, China. The chronologies were analyzed individually and then compared with each other. The climate response analysis shows that total precipitation (September–July) is the main factor limiting the radial growth of Chinese pine in the Changling Mountains. Thus, the residual earlywood width chronology was used to estimate precipitation (September–July) for the period AD 1691–2006, and explained 46.9% of the precipitation variance. Drought events in our reconstruction are compared to historical archives for Gansu and north-central China. The results reveal the climatic extremes over much of Gansu. Some events have had profound impacts on the Gansu people over the past several centuries. Spatial analysis shows that the precipitation reconstruction has strong common signals for North-central China. The reconstructed series is correlated significantly with Helan Mountains Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), as well as with previous results from Jiuquan, Shandan, Huashan, Luya Mountains, and even the state of Mongolia. Our results suggest that some dry periods are coincident with solar minima over the past several hundred years. Multitaper spectral analysis reveals the existence of significant 24.4-year, 12.2-year, and 2.4- to 3.4-year periods of variability.<br/>
DOI:10.1007/s00484-011-0431-8      [Cited within:0]
[149] Chen Feng, Yuan Yujiang, Wei Wenshouet al., 2015. Tree-ring recorded hydroclimatic change in Tienshan mountains during the past 500 years.Quaternary International, 358: 35-41.
In Central Asia, tree rings provide one of the best sources of paleoclimatological information. However, dendroclimatology has not been widely applied in the coniferous forests of Central Asia. Tree cores of Picea Schrenkiana from four sites in the Hutubi River Basin were developed into a 606-year tree-ring width chronology. The analyses showed that the tree-ring width indices highly correlate with mean April ay PDSI in the Hutubi River Basin. Mean April ay PDSI of the Hutubi River was reconstructed using the tree-ring data with 41.5% of the variance explained. The reconstructed series contains both high- and low-frequency climate signals. Our new PDSI reconstruction agrees reasonably well with the dry and wet periods previously estimated from tree rings in western Tien Shan. The results reveal common climatic extremes over much of Central Asia. Spatial analysis shows that the PDSI reconstructions have strong common signals for the Tien Shan. The first principal component of PDSI reconstructions in Tien Shan is significantly correlated with sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean. The linkages to the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans suggest the connection of regional moisture variations to the Asian monsoon and the Westerlies.
DOI:10.1016/j.quaint.2014.09.057      [Cited within:0]
[150] Cui Yu, Yuan Yujiang, Jin Hailonget al., 2007. Reconstruction and Analysis of 467-year Spring Precipitation Series in the Urumqi River Head.Arid Land Geography, 30(4): 496-500. (in Chinese)
Correlation calculation indicates that the tree-ring chronologies positively correlate with spring(April to May) precipitation of the Daxigou Meteorological Station significantly,with the greatest single correlation coefficient of 0.490(the significance is much greater than 99.9 percent level).The result has distinct physiological significance.Using HXC.STDt and BEQ.STDt+2 tree-ring chronology series,the long-term sequence of spring precipitation was reconstructed with an explained variance of 41.6%.It is verified that the reconstructed pracipitation was reliable.The reconstructed series show that(1) in the 467 years,the spring precipitation in the Urumqi River Head experienced 13 wet periods and 12 dry periods;(2)in the past 467 years,there were 276 normal precipitation years,86 dryish years,98 dampish years,5 dry years and 2 wet years,and the longest dampish period was 1646-1687(42 years),the longest dryish period was 1704-1733(30 years).The great wettest period was 16941703(the mean precipitation was 86.9 mm,18.7% higher than that of the recent 41 years),and the great driest period by far was 1635-1645(the mean precipitation was 60.0 mm,18.0% lower than that of the recent 41 years),the wettest year was 1697(the mean precipitation was 98.2 mm,34.2% higher than that of the recent 41 years),the driest year was 1951(the mean precipitation was 42.6 mm,41.8% lower than that of the recent 41 years);(3) the reconstructed long-term spring precipitation sequence had 2.04-2.15 a,2.25-2.31 a,2.38 a,31 a,34.44 a,51.67 a and 62 a changing periods,and the reconstructed precipitation sequence had the abrupt changes in 1635,1704,1758,1781,1832 and 1915.
DOI:10.1002/jrs.1570      [Cited within:0]
[151] Fang Keyan, Gou Xiaohua, Chen Fahuet al., 2010a. Reconstructed droughts for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau over the past 568 years and its linkages to the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean climate variability.Climate Dynamics, 35(4): 577-585.
We present a Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction (<i>r</i>&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.61, <i>P</i>&nbsp;&lt;&nbsp;0.01) from 1440 to 2007 for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, based on tree rings of the forest fir (<i>Abies forrestii</i>). Persistent decadal dry intervals were found in the 1440s&#8211;1460s, 1560s&#8211;1580s, 1700s, 1770s, 1810s, 1860s and 1980s, and the extreme wet epochs were the 1480s&#8211;1490s, 1510s&#8211;1520s, 1590s, 1610s&#8211;1630s, 1720s&#8211;1730s, 1800s, 1830s, 1870s, 1930s, 1950s and after the 1990s. Comparisons of our record with those identified in other moisture related reconstructions for nearby regions showed that our reconstructed droughts were relatively consistent with those found in other regions of Indochina, suggesting similar drought regimes. Spectral peaks of 2.3&#8211;5.5&nbsp;years may be indicative of ENSO activity, as also suggested by negative correlations with SSTs in the eastern equatorial and southeastern Pacific Ocean. Significant multidecadal spectral peaks of 29.2&#8211;40.9 and 56.8&#8211;60.2&nbsp;years were identified. As indicated by the spatial correlation patterns, the decadal-scale variability may be linked to SST variations in the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.
DOI:10.1007/s00382-009-0636-2      [Cited within:0]
[152] Fang Keyan, Gou Xiaohua, Chen Fahuet al., 2010b. Tree-ring based drought reconstruction for the Guiqing Mountain (China): Linkages to the Indian and Pacific Oceans. International Journal of Climatology, 30(8): 1137-1145.
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[153] Fang Keyan, Gou Xiaohua, Chen Fahuet al., 2012a. Precipitation variability during the past 400 years in the Xiaolong Mountain (central China) inferred from tree rings.Climate Dynamics, 39(7/8): 1697-1707.
We developed the first tree-ring chronology, based on 73 cores from 29 Pinus tabulaeformis trees, for the Xiaolong Mountain area of central China, a region at the boundary of the Asian summer monsoon. This chronology exhibits significant (at 0.01 level) positive correlations with precipitation in May and June, and negative correlations with temperature in May, June and July. Highest linear correlation is observed between tree growth and the seasonalized (April-July) precipitation, suggesting that tree rings tend to integrate the monthly precipitation signals. Accordingly, the April-July total precipitation was reconstructed back to 1629 using these tree rings, explaining 44.7 % of the instrumental variance. A severe drought occurred in the area during the 1630s-1640s, which may be related to the weakened Asian summer monsoon caused by a low land-sea thermal gradient. The dry epoch during the 1920s-1930s and since the late 1970s may be explained by the strengthened Hadley circulation in a warmer climate. The dry (wet) epochs of the 1920s-1930s (the 1750s and 1950s) occurred during the warm (cold) phases of the El Ni o-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that are often associated with weakened (strengthened) East Asian summer monsoon. These relationships indicate significant teleconnections operating over the past centuries in central China related to large-scale synoptic features.
DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1371-7      [Cited within:0]
[154] Fang Keyan, Gou Xiaohua, Chen Fahuet al., 2012b. Tree-ring based reconstruction of drought variability (1615-2009) in the Kongtong Mountain area, northern China.Global and Planetary Change, 80: 190-197.
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[155] Gao Weidong, Yuan Yujiang, Zhang Ruiboet al., 2011. The recent 338-year precipitation series reconstructed from tree-ring in northern slope of Tianshan Mountains.Journal of Desert Research, 31(6): 1535-1540. (in Chinese)
<FONT face=Verdana>Analysis on correlation between the precipitation data of 9 weather stations and the 21 tree-ring standardization chronologies in northern slope of Tianshan Mountains showed that the correlation was significant between chronologies and the precipitation series from last August to July, with a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.612 (P&lt;0.0001). The annual precipitation series in recent 338 years were reconstructed based on five tree-ring standardization chronologies, and the reconstruction equation could explain variance of 60.0%, and statistical test and historical data validation indicated that the equation reconstructed was credible. Analysis of the precipitation series in the recent 338 years showed that the reconstructed precipitation series had 8 wet periods and 8 dry periods. The longest stage of dry years was 1705—1750, the most dry phase was 1960—1989, the most dry years were 1796, 1944 and 1974, and the rainfall was 27% below normal; the longest stage of wet years was 1917—1959, the precipitation of 1690—1904 was most abundant. The reconstructed precipitation series in the recent 338 years had variation period of 2-a, the abrupt changes of precipitation occurred in 1751 and 1958.</FONT>
DOI:      [Cited within:0]
[156] Gou Xiaohua, Deng Yang, Gao Linlinet al., 2015a. Millennium tree-ring reconstruction of drought variability in the eastern Qilian Mountains, Northwest China.Climate Dynamics, 45(7): 1761-1770.
Knowledge of natural long-term drought variability is essential for water resource management and planning, especially in arid and sub-arid regions of the world. In the eastern Qilian Mountains of China, long-term drought variability based on high-resolution proxy records such as tree-ring data are still scarce to date. Here we present a new tree-ring chronology from the eastern Qilian Mountains which provides a valuable 1,002-year record (1009-2010 CE) of drought variability. The new reconstruction of June-July 5-month scale standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index is the first millennium tree-ring estimate of past climate developed in the eastern Qilian Mountains. The record shows that this region has experienced several persistent droughts and pluvials over the past millennium, with significantly drier climate during the fifteenth century and dramatic wetting since the nineteenth century. The low frequency generally agrees with other nearby studies based on both tree-ring data and other proxy data.
DOI:10.1007/s00382-014-2431-y      [Cited within:0]
[157] Gou Xiaohua, Gao Linlin, Deng Yanget al., 2015b. An 850-year tree-ring-based reconstruction of drought history in the western Qilian Mountains of northwestern China.International Journal of Climatology, 35(11): 3308-3319.
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[158] Gou Xiaohua, Yang Tao, Gao Linlinet al., 2013. A 457-year reconstruction of precipitation in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China using tree-ring records.Chinese Science Bulletin, 58(10): 1107-1114.
This paper presents a 457-year reconstruction of precipitation in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau using tree-ring records.Tree-ring samples were collected from the Hengduan Mountains in the southeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China.A nearly 500-year chronology was developed using tree-ring width records.Correlation analysis shows moisture is the main factor limiting tree growth in this region.Ring-widths were significantly positively correlated with the Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI) and precipitation in many months.The highest correlation coefficient was found between the annual growth of trees and precipitation from the previous September to the current June(0.738).Based on this relationship,we reconstructed the precipitation history from 1509 to 2006.The reconstruction explains 54.4%(Radj2=53.5%,N=49,F=56.12) of the actual precipitation variation during the calibration period(1958-2006).During the reliable period of the reconstruction(1549-2006),some low-frequency climate signals are included,indicating this region has been getting wetter in the last 20 years.The reconstruction documents six apparently dry and five pluvial periods and the 17th century dry period lasted longer than any other.When compared with other recent studies,this study and these earlier reconstructions show a similar trend in the variation of drought and pluvial.Further spatial correlation analysis confirms that the reconstructed precipitation adequately represents the rainfall history of the entire Hengduan Mountain area.The Multi-taper method,a type of spectral analysis,reveals that precipitation in this area had significant(P0.01) spectral peaks at 3-5 a,60 a and 79-85 a.
DOI:10.1007/s11434-012-5539-7      [Cited within:0]
[159] Li Qiang, Liu Yu, Cai Qiufanget al., 2006. Reconstruction of annual precipitation since 1686A.D. from Ningwu Region, Shanxi Province.Quaternary Sciences, 26(6): 999-1006. (in Chinese)
The annual precipitation from last August to current July was reconstructed based on tree-ring width analyses since 1686A.D.33 cores from 19 Chinese pine trees<em>(Pinus tabulaeformis)</em>have been collected in Ningwu region (38&deg;50'N,112&deg;05'E), Shanxi Province. Tree-ring samples were prepared, cross-dated and measured following conventional procedures. There are two meteorologic stations near the sampling site, the Wuzhai station (38&deg;55'N,111&deg;49'E,ca.1401m ) and the Yuanping station (38&deg;44'N,112&deg;43'E,ca.828.2m ), which is 42km and 46km to the sampling site respectively. We chosed the Yuanping station data for the following analysis. It is evident that ring-width indices respond pronouncedly to AJ (last August to current July) precipitation. The correlation coefficient was 0.71. In this paper, climatic record data from the Yuanping meteorologic station is divided into two phases: verification phase (1974~2003) and calibration phase (1954~1973). From these data, using simple linear regression, a transfer function was build to reconstruct total precipitation from last August to current July since 1686 A.D.: P<sub>87</sub>=331.315RES<sub>t</sub>+88.454, (n=30,<em> r</em>=0.697,<em> R</em><sup>2</sup>=48.6 %, <em>R</em><sup>2</sup><sub>adj</sub>=46.8 %, <em>F</em>=26.471, <em>p</em>&lt;0.0001). In this function, P<sub>87</sub> was total precipitation from last August to current July, RES<sub>t</sub> was current residual chronology.The explained variance of reconstruction is 48.6 % (adjusted explained variance is 46.8 %, <em>F</em>=26.471, <em>p</em>&lt;0.0001). Dry periods in the reconstruction include 1693~1710,1720~1764,1825~1841,1873~1882,1901~1930,1966~1972,1988~2003, and wet periods include 1711~1720, 1765~1824,1842~1872,1883~1886 and 1931~1987. The dry/wet years are well identified by historical documents. The reconstructed precipitation of Ningwu series was significantly correlated with precipitation of January to July (P<sub>17</sub>) from the Mt. Helan (at 99 % confidence level, n=230, <em>r</em>=0.312). Ningwu and Mt. Helan are both located in the environmentally sensitive zone; the precipitations in this zone are controlled by the East Asian monsoon. Power spectrum analysis shows that there exist periods of 2.34~2.68, 4.92, and 5.26 years in last August to current July precipitation that respond to ENSO event. It suggests that climate variations in Ningwu region are driven not only by local events, but also by the global climate.
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[160] Liu Jingjing, 2014. Precipitation variations during the last 526 years inferred from tree-ring width on the southern Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences), 50(3): 293-298. (in Chinese)
Located on the southern Tibetan Plateau, the Namling region is characterized by the typical semi-arid climatic characteristics. It is of great importance to study the precipitation variations in such areas. A tree-ring width chronology was developed from Tibetan junipers (S. tibetica) derived. According to standard dendrochronological process, the correlation and response analysis displays a high correlation between standard tree-ring width and observed mean annual precipitation series during the period 1957–2008. Based on a linear regression model, an annual (prior July to current June) precipitation series from A.D.1485 to 2010 was reconstructed. This is the first well-calibrated precipitation reconstruction for the Namling region in southern Tibet. The results show that relatively wet periods above the average occurred in A.D. 1490s–1510s, 1530s–1550s, 1620s–1640s, 1680s–1720s, 1740s–1750s, 1840s–1850s, 1880s–1910s, and 1960s–1990s whereas relatively dry periods prevailed during A.D. 1520s, 1560s–1610s, 1650s–1670s, 1730s, 1760s–1830s, 1860s–1970s, 1920s–1950s and after 1990s. Both the dry and wet intervals contemporaneously occurred in the Linzhou and the regional reconstructed precipitation series on decadal scales, implying that the regional climate might be influenced by the similar driven mechanisms.
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[161] Liu Yu, An Zhisheng, Ma Haizhouet al., 2006. Precipitation variation in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau recorded by the tree rings since 850 AD and its relevance to the Northern Hemisphere temperature.Science in China Series D Earth Sciences, 49(4): 408-420.
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[162] Qin Ningsheng, Shao Xuemei, Jin Liyaet al., 2003. Climate change over southern Qinghai Plateau in the past 500 years recorded in Sabina tibetica tree rings.Chinese Science Bulletin, 48(22): 2484-2488.
Two tree ring-width chronologies of Sabina tibetica were developed based on cores sampled in Qumalai and Zhiduo, southern Qinghai Plateau. The response function analysis showed that the chronologies were sensitive to temperature and precipitation from April to June in the plateau. Moisture index (MI) was defined, reconstructed and extended back to AD 1550. The cross-validation method was used to check the stability of the calibration equation, and the result indicated that the equation was stable. Six severe dry periods were found in this region in the past 453-year reconstruction, which were 1592 to 1610, 1649 to 1665, 1687 to 1697, 1740 to 1750, 1818 to 1829 and 1918 to 1933. Five severe wetting periods were 1669 to 1682, 1700 to 1709, 1800 to 1814, 1898 to 1909 and 1935 to 1950. Spectrum analysis indicated that there existed long-term cycles of 60.4 and 53.4 a, solar cycle of 11 a and short-term cycles of 8, 6 and 4 a in the reconstructed series.
DOI:10.1360/03wd0088      [Cited within:0]
[163] Shao Xuemei, Huang Lei, Liu Hongbinet al., 2005. Reconstruction of precipitation variation from tree rings in recent 1000 years in Delingha, Qinghai.Science in China Ser. D Earth Sciences, 48(7): 939-949.
Using seven well-replicated Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) ring-width chronologies developed at Zongwulong and Shalike Mts. in the northeastern part of the Qaidam Basin annual precipitation from previous July to current June in the recent 1000 years was reconstructed for Delingha. The reconstruction can capture 63.1% of precipitation variance and the equation was stable over time. For the reconstructed precipitation, wet periods occurred in AD1520--1633 and 1933--2001, whereas dry intervals in 1429--1519 and 1634--1741. In addition, the magnitude in precipitation variation was lower before 1430 with about 15 mm, but it increased to 30 mm during the period of 1430 to 1850. After 1850, the precipitation variance decreased again. In contrast to the increase in temperature, a decrease in annual precipitation was evident since the 1990s. The agreement in low-frequency variation between the reconstruction and the glacier accumulation and particulate content in Dunde ice cores during the recent several hundred years suggested that the precipitation reconstructed in this study was rather reliable,and represented a regional signal. This 1000-year reconstruction could benefit our understanding of climatic variation in decadal to century-scale in this region, and provide basic data to climate models and to prediction of future climate in the 21 st century.
DOI:10.1360/03yd0146      [Cited within:0]
[164] Shao Xuemei, Liang Eryuan, Huang Leiet al., 2006. A reconstructed precipitation series over the past millennium in the northeastern Qaidam Basin.Advances in Climate Change Research, 2(3): 122-126. (in Chinese)
DOI:      [Cited within:0]
[165] Shi Xinghe, Qin Ningsheng, Shao Xuemeiet al., 2009. Precipitation change over the past 1000 years recorded in Sabina Tibetica tree rings in Lake Qinghai Basin.Journal of Lake Sciences, 21(4): 579-586. (in Chinese)
DOI:10.18307/2009.0418      [Cited within:0]
[166] Tian Qinhua, Zhou Xiuji, Gou Xiaohuaet al., 2012. Analysis of reconstructed annual precipitation from tree-rings for the past 500 years in the middle Qilian Mountain.Science China Earth Sciences, 55(5): 770-778.
The ring-width chronology of a Juniperus przewalskii tree from the middle of the Qilian Mountain was constructed to estimate the annual precipitation (from previous August to current July) since AD 1480.The reconstruction showed four major alternations of drying and wetting over the past 521 years.The rainy 16th century was followed by persistent drought in the 17th century.Moreover,relatively wet conditions persisted from the 18th to the beginning of 20th century until the recurrence of a drought during the 1920s and 1930s.Based on the Empirical Mode Decomposition method,eight Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) were extracted,each representing unique fluctuations of the reconstructed precipitation in the time-frequency domain.The high amplitudes of IMFs on different timescales were often consistent with the high amount of precipitation,and vice versa.The IMF of the lowest frequency indicated that the precipitation has undergone a slow increasing trend over the past 521 years.The 2-3 year and 5-8 year time-scales reflected the characteristics of inter-annual variability in precipitation relevant to regional atmospheric circulation and the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO),respectively.The 10-13 year scale of IMF may be associated with changing solar activity.Specifically,an amalgamation of previous and present data showed that droughts were likely to be a historically persistent feature of the Earth's climate,whereas the probability of intensified rainfall events seemed to increase during the course of the 19th and 20th centuries.These changing characteristics in precipitation indicate an unprecedented alteration of the hydrological cycle,with unknown future amplitude.Our reconstruction complements existing information on past precipitation changes in the Qilian Mountain,and provides additional low-frequency information not previously available.
DOI:10.1007/s11430-012-4375-6      [Cited within:0]
[167] Wang Wenzhi, Liu Xiaohong, Xu Guobaoet al., 2013. Moisture variations over the past millennium characterized by Qaidam Basin tree-ring δ18O.Chinese Science Bulletin, 58(32): 3956-3961.
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[168] Wang Xiaochun, Zhang Qibin, Ma Kepinget al., 2008. A tree-ring record of 500-year dry-wet changes in northern Tibet, China.The Holocene, 18(4): 579-588.
Drought variability of the Tibetan Plateau is an important component across the Asian monsoon. Long-term information about the history of drought is, however, limited because the instrumental records are short. In this study we developed a tree-ring chronology of Sabina tibetica from northern Tibet and used it to reconstruct the history of drought variation for the region. Response analysis shows that water availability in spring and early summer is the main factor limiting the radial growth of Sabina trees in northern Tibet. A May-June Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstruction for the past 500 years (r = 0.66, P < 0.0001) shows that the seventeenth century was the driest century, whereas the eighteenth, nineteenth and twentieth centuries were the wettest. The sixteenth century was not significantly different from the long-term mean. The major periods of reconstructed dry conditions include AD 1600-1610, 1617-1624, 1630-1632, 1639-1654, 1665-1681 and 1692-1701. Significant wetter periods were found to be AD 1520-1532, 1702-1705, 1716-1722, 1752-1758, 1839-1857 and 1928-1943. The drought rhythm in northern Tibet has three prominent periodicities: 2-7 and 130-200 years for the whole reconstruction and 16-24 years during the 'Little Ice Age' (1520 to 1720). Two points of significant abrupt change in tree rings were found in years of 1530 and 1715, which may indicate the onset of dry and wet conditions during the 'Little Ice Age'. There is an abrupt change around 1965, which may foreshow the beginning of regional prominent warming.
DOI:10.1177/0959683608089212      [Cited within:0]
[169] Wang Zhenyu, Li Lin, Wang Qingchunet al., 2005. Characteristic of precipitation variation in summer season over Qinghai Province in 500 years recorded from tree-rings.Climatic and Environmental Research, 10(2): 250-256. (in Chinese)
Based on the three pieces of tree ring data in different area of Qinghai province, the precipitation sequence in summer season from 1479 to 1991 is reconstructed, this analysis shows that the precipitation in summer season is relatively fewer than that the precipitation average in 1961-1990. On the basis of this average in 513 years, Qinghai has mainly come through 10 relative dry periods and 11 relative wet periods, among which the longer wet period of sustaining time is divided into three episodes, i.e., from 1544 to 1584, from 1667 to 1719 and from 1936 to 1991, while the sustaining time of dry period is relatively shorter. By maximum entropy spectrum analysis, it can be found that there exists 25.0, 11.5, 4.8, 3.7, 7.7, 6.2, 2.2, 2.4, and 2.0-year cycles.
DOI:10.1007/s10409-004-0010-x      [Cited within:0]
[170] Xu Guobao, Liu Xiaohong, Qin Daheet al., 2014. Tree-ring δ18O evidence for the drought history of eastern Tianshan Mountains, Northwest China since 1700 AD.International Journal of Climatology, 34(12): 3336-3347.
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[171] Yang Bao, Qin Chun, Wang Jianglinet al., 2014a. A 3,500-year tree-ring record of annual precipitation on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(8): 2903-2908.
An annually resolved and absolutely dated ring-width chronology spanning 4,500 y has been constructed using subfossil, archaeological, and living-tree juniper samples from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The chronology represents changing mean annual precipitation and is most reliable after 1500 B.C. Reconstructed precipitation for this period displays a trend toward more moist conditions: the last 10-, 25-, and 50-y periods all appear to be the wettest in at least three and a half millennia. Notable historical dry periods occurred in the 4th century BCE and in the second half of the 15th century CE. The driest individual year reconstructed (since 1500 B.C.) is 1048 B.C., whereas the wettest is 2010. Precipitation variability in this region appears not to be associated with inferred changes in Asian monsoon intensity during recent millennia. The chronology displays a statistical association with the multidecadal and longer-term variability of reconstructed mean Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the last two millennia. This suggests that any further large-scale warming might be associated with even greater moisture supply in this region.
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1319238111      PMID:24516152      [Cited within:0]
[172] Yang Yuhui, Chen Yaning, Li Weihonget al., 2012. Climatic change of inland river basin in an arid area: a case study in northern Xinjiang, China.Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 107(1/2): 143-154.
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[173] Yu Shulong, Yuan Yujiang, Jin Hailonget al., 2005. A 379-year July-August precipitation series reconstructed from tree-ring on the midwestern part of the northern slopes of Tianshan Mountains.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 27(3): 404-410. (in Chinese)
Single correlation calculation indicated that the correlations were significant among two tree-ring chronologies and precipitation from July to August on the midwestern part of the northern slopes of Tianshan Mountains, with a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.639 (α=0.00002). In consideration of that tree-growth variation lags behind precipitation variation, a 379-year precipitation series was well reconstructed, with an explain variance of 56.0%. It was verified that the reconstructed precipitation series was reliable. Analyzing the 379 year reconstructed precipitation series found: 1) There were significant change periods of 6.6, 6.5, 5.4 a; 2) There were 5 abrupt changes in 1734, 1759, 1819, 1872, 1963; 3) There were 6 wet periods and 6 dry periods. The change of the reconstructed precipitation series consists well with that of the precipitation series in Yili Prefecture.
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[174] Zhang Lu, Yuan Yujiang, Wei Wenshouet al., 2010. Reconstruction and analysis of the 336-a July and August precipitation series in Nilka County, Xinjiang.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 32(5): 914-920. (in Chinese)
Single correlations between the standard chronologies of tree-ring width in three sites and precipitation at the Nilka Weather Station indicated that the correlations were significant among standard chronologies of tree-ring width and precipitation from July and August last year in Nilka, which has distinct physiological significance with a maximum correlation of 0.598(α=0.000006). Averaging the standardization chronologies of tree-ring width of the three points as the a regional average tree-ring width chronology, and taking into account the impact of July and August precipitation at last year on the tree-ring growth at the current year, the following year and another year, using the regional tree-ring standardized chronology, a 336-year precipitation series was well reconstructed. It was verified that the reconstructed precipitation series was reliable. Analyzing the 336-a reconstructed precipitation series found: 1)There were 6 dry phases bellow its mean and 7 wet phases above its mean; and the number of wet-partial years is more than that of the dry-partial years; 2) The minimum precipitation occurred in 1713, which was 69.4% less the long-term mean, and the maximum precipitation occurred in 1783, which was 63.5% more than the long-term mean; 3) There were significant change of the July and August precipitation with periods of 2.0 a, 2.2 a, 3.8 a, 4.9 a, and 9.7 a in the reconstructed long-term precipitation series; 4) There were six abrupt changes in 1718, 1757, 1778, 1852 and 1873, i.e., three abrupt changes from high to low in 1757, 1852 and 1899 and three abrupt changes from low to high in 1718, 1778 and 1873. The abrupt changes in 1757 and 1778 were corresponding to the abrupt changes presented by the previous researches.
DOI:      [Cited within:0]
[175] Zhang Qibin, Cheng Guodong, Yao Tandonget al., 2003. A 2,326-year tree-ring record of climate variability on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.Geophysical Research Letters, 30(14): 1739.
High-resolution climate proxy records covering the last two millennia on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau are scarce yet essential to evaluation of the patterns, synchroneity and spatial extent of past climatic changes including those in the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Here we present a 2326-year tree-ring chronology of Sabina przewalskii Kom. for Dulan area of northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We find that the annual growth rings mainly reflect variations in regional spring precipitation. The greatest change in spring precipitation during the last two millennia seems to occur in the second half of the 4th century. The North Atlantic MWP was accompanied by notable wet springs in the study region during A.D. 929-1031 with the peak occurring around A.D. 974. Three intervals of dry springs occurred in the period of LIA. Our tree-ring data will facilitate intercontinental comparisons of large-scale synoptic climate variability for the last two millennia.
DOI:10.1029/2003GL017425      [Cited within:0]
[176] Zhang Qibin, Evans Michael N, Lyu Lixin, 2015. Moisture dipole over the Tibetan Plateau during the past five and a half centuries. Nature Communications, 6: 8062. doi: 10.1038/ncomms9062.
The South Asian Monsoon and mid-latitude Westerlies are two important controls on Tibetan Plateau (TP) fresh water resources. Understanding their interaction requires long-term information on spatial patterns in moisture variability on the TP. Here we develop a network of 23 moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronologies from major juniper forests in a north-south transect on the eastern TP. Over the past five and a half centuries, we find that these chronologies cluster into two groups, North and South, of ~33掳 N. Southern and northern regional chronology subsets are positively and significantly correlated with May-June Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI). The meridional moisture stress gradient reconstructed from these data suggests substantial stochastic variation, yet persistent moisture stress differences are observed between 1463-1502 CE and 1693-1734 CE. Identification of these patterns provides clues linking them with forced or intrinsic tropical-extratropical interactions and thus facilitates studies of interannual-decadal dipole variations in hydroclimate over the TP.
DOI:10.1038/ncomms9062      PMID:26293214      [Cited within:0]
[177] Zhang Ruibo, Wei Wenshou, Yuan Yujianget al.2009. A precipitation series of A.D. 1396-2005 in Aksu River Basin on the southern slopes of Tianshan Mountains: Reconstruction and analysis.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 31(1): 27-33. (in Chinese)
DOI:      [Cited within:0]
[178] Zhang Tongwen, Yuan Yujiang, Yu Shulonget al., 2008. June to September precipitation series of 1481-2004 reconstructed from tree-ring in the western region of Altay Prefecture, Xinjiang.Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 30(4): 659-667. (in Chinese)
DOI:      [Cited within:0]
[179] Zhang Yong, Tian Qinhua, Gou Xiaohuaet al., 2011. Annual precipitation reconstruction since AD 775 based on tree rings from the Qilian Mountains, northwestern China.International Journal of Climatology, 31(3): 371-381.
A millennium-long tree-ring-width chronology from the middle Qilian Mountains in northwestern China has been used to reconstruct annual precipitation variation (from the prior August to current July) since AD 775. The reconstruction explains 37.8% of variance of the observed data. Based on the mean and standard deviation of the reconstructed series, several prolonged severe dry and wet periods were indentified: drought spells in AD 1144-1154 (11 years) and 1925-1932 (8 years) and wet spells in AD 985-999 (15 years), 1089-1097 (9 years) and 1979-1991 (12 years). Both multi-taper spectral analysis (MTM) and wavelet analysis suggest that periods of the reconstructed precipitation are consistent with those associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon and perhaps solar activity. Copyright. (C) 2010 Royal Meteorological Society
DOI:10.1002/joc.2085      [Cited within:0]